The Gulf of Mexico’s first possible tropical disturbance of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season could form next week, the National Hurricane Center forecasts.
An area of low pressure has a slight chance of developing over the next five days in the Bay of Campeche, the NHC said Friday.
Forecaster Kevin Gilmore of the National Weather Service in New Orleans said formation chances are low, but anything can change on a day-to-day basis.
“There’s a 20% chance of development in the region and could just bring an increase of rain, but it is still a little bit too early to tell right now.”
If the disturbance develops, it would be the first tropical storm in the Gulf. There has already been one named storm during the 2021 Atlantic season that started June 1, Subtropical Storm Ana off the East Coast. The next named storm would be Bill.
General movement should be gradually northward toward the United States from Wednesday through Friday, “so this will be one to closely monitor,” Harrison County Emergency Management Agency Director Matt Stratton said in an email.
“Please use this weekend to double check your supplies, discuss your plans, and ensure your readiness for this hurricane season,” he said.
“People should be prepared for hurricane season and keep in contact with the NHC and NWS about safety measures and updates,” Gilmore said.
NOAA previously said there’s a 60% probability of an above-normal hurricane season this year.
Here’s a list of what supplies should be kept to protect yourself this hurricane season.
(thread/) More on potential tropical development in the Gulf next week...the Euro ensembles remain fairly bullish on development, showing a 60%+ chance of a depression in the Tuesday PM - Friday PM timeframe. pic.twitter.com/rrAeuPqzol
— Steve Caparotta, Ph.D. (@SteveWAFB) June 11, 2021
Tropical juice heads up into the Gulf next week into Father's Day weekend. Development or not... the blob of rains will be impacting someone. Latest totals from the GFS/EURO are here into Sun... and mostly start late Thu into Fri. Tracks still vary a bunch (and strength). pic.twitter.com/JBVQ5Z8gQj
— Mike's Weather Page (@tropicalupdate) June 11, 2021