Amstel Gold Race contenders - 5 favourites and 5 outsiders

The Ardennes Classics are upon us and, even if Amstel Gold Race doesn't technically take place in the Ardennes, it still represents the first instalment of the so-called 'hilly classics' of the Spring.

Liège-Bastogne-Liège is the major prize next Sunday, with La Flèche Wallonne a punchy mid-week offering, but the Amstel Gold Race stands as a historic event, the only one-day Classic in the Netherlands and so a major prize of the Spring swing.

As such, there a host of big names on the start list, none bigger than the Tour of Flanders champion Tadej Pogačar, who starts as the favourite.

There's no Wout van Aert and no Mathieu van der Poel, both former winners of the Dutch race, but there are still plenty of threats to the two-time Tour de France champion.

Here, we take a look at the major contenders for the title, and also at a few lesser-known names who could have an impact on Sunday.

The top favourites

Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates)

Tadej Pogačar is such an outstanding favourite for the Amstel Gold Race that all other riders should probably be classed as outsiders.

The two-time Tour de France champion has won 10 times in 16 days of racing so far in 2023, dominating Paris-Nice before bolstering his Classics repertoire with victory on his second appearance at the Tour of Flanders.

That performance in Flanders was one of the standout rides in modern cycling, with two-time winner Mathieu van der Poel producing what was arguably his best Ronde ride but falling way short of the new mark.

It emphasised the point that, this year Tadej Pogačar can seemingly do what he wants, when he wants. At Amstel Gold Race, he'll find a course more amenable to his climbing strengths, with the Dutch race positioned somewhere in between Flanders and next weekend's Liège-Bastogne-Liège, which he won in 2021.

With Wout van Aert and Mathieu van der Poel absent, there's no realistic challenger that Pogačar would truly fear in a sprint situation, and it may not come to that. The way things have been looking, the 24-year-old can ride away at will.

It has already been a busy and intense first part of the season for Pogačar, who still has the Tour de France as his major season target but he has found the energy and motivation to race all three Ardennes Classics after also doing the cobbles.

His rivals will be hoping that energy and hunger will be waning at this late point in the Spring, although they may be clutching at straws. As things stand, Pogačar is in a league of his own.

Tom Pidcock (Ineos Grenadiers)

There's no Van Aert, Van der Poel, Alaphilippe or Jonas Vingegaard at Amstel, but there is one rider who could claim membership of that superstar echelon of professional cycling.

Tom Pidcock, on his day, is electric, and he comes into the race as one of the major contenders behind Pogačar.

You won't find him on the honours roll, but Pidcock believes he has won this race before. In 2021 he was involved in the tightest of photo finishes against Wout van Aert, and his comments ever since - light-hearted though they might have been - have suggested he doesn't fully trust the decision that went the way of his Belgian rival.

That was Pidcock's first full Classics campaign, in which he beat Van Aert at Brabantse Pijl just days prior, and although there have been inconsistencies due to illness and injuries, he has since bolstered his palmarès with a stage win at the Tour de France and a stunning solo at Strade Bianche last month.

Beset by stomach issues last year, this Spring was thrown off kilter by a concussion suffered at Tirreno-Adriatico that kept him out of Milan-San Remo, and Pidcock heads to the Ardennes with some question marks still hanging over him.

At Flanders he was 52nd but that could largely be put down to forgetting to fuel properly. We'll never know how things might have turned out, but he was one of only four riders able to follow Pogačar's first assault over the Oude Kwaremont that day, which was a strong statement in itself.

Pidcock is joined by 20-year-old US rider Magnus Sheffield, who hasn't quite had the Classics campaign many expected after his Brabantse Pijl victory 12 months ago but still remains a potential candidate.

The British team also have the defending champion and two-time winner Michal Kwiatkowski, although the Pole doesn't look set for anything above a support role on Sunday.

Neilson Powless (EF Education-EasyPost)

Neilson Powless is a rider in form and on the rise, and the spreading of his Classics wings continues with a debut at Amstel Gold Race.

Long considered a top US talent, the Californian's career really started moving when he left Jumbo-Visma for EF in 2020, and move towards one-day racing was triggered by his victory in the 2021 Clásica San Sebastián, shortly followed by a top-five at Worlds.

Last year he made his debut at Liège and finished eighth, and this year he did the cobbles for the first time to stunning effect, podium-ing Dwars door Vlaanderen before placing fifth at his first Flanders. Before that he was also seventh at his first Milan-San Remo.

He also won the GP La Marseillaise in February, all in between a run of stage race success that featured victory at Etoile de Bessèges, third at Tour du Var, and sixth at Paris-Nice.

In short, Powless is really coming of age and if he shone at Flanders then the greater elevation gain is only going to tip Amstel further in his favour.

Powless has described himself as an endurance rider and the 253km distance of Amstel pushes this towards Monument territory, so on current form and credentials, he should be a major player on Sunday.

Powless lines up alongside former Giro d'Italia champion Richard Carapaz and the rising Italian talent Andrea Piccolo.

Tiesj Benoot (Jumbo-Visma)

Jumbo-Visma's Spring has been painted as something of a failure, their relative shortcomings in the Monuments quickly overshadowing their near-total dominance up to that point.

They may be without leading light Wout van Aert at Amstel but in Tiesj Benoot they still possess a top-level Classics contender, and someone who was on the podium here last year.

Kwiatkowski and Cosnefroy had already gone clear to contest the victory but Benoot snuck away from the rest of the select group to solo home to third place 12 months ago.

This year he has been on strong form, winning Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne before another podium at Strade Bianche, a race he won in 2018. He was disappointed at Flanders, failing to anticipate in the early moves and then unable to follow Pogačar's first selection over the Kwaremont, but he still placed a respectable 13th.

Jumbo-Visma may not possess the fearsome strength in numbers they did on the cobbles but Benoot, who lines up alongside Atilla Valter (more on him later), is still a quality candidate for victory.

Benoît Cosnefroy (AG2R Citroën Team)

Runner-up by the skin of his teeth 12 months ago, Benoît Cosnefroy is high up on most bookmakers' lists of favourites, and the Frenchman, while not quite on the same level as the riders above, has shown signs that he could be in the mix again.

He was 16th in his first Tour of Flanders, good for a cobbles debutant but not good enough to go with the best.

At Brabantse Pijl on Wednesday he ended up playing second fiddle as his teammate Dorian Godon stormed to victory, but he mopped up from the group behind to make it two AG2R riders on the podium.

Cosnefroy couldn't quite open the race up as he would have liked, but the way he skipped clearly away from the rest of the reduced bunch on the final S-Bocht climb was in itself a good sign.

The 27-year-old said he didn't feel his best in the cold and rain so an improvement should be expected for the drier and warmer conditions expected in the Netherlands on Sunday.

Godon is also racing, as is Greg Van Avermaet, but Cosnefroy remains the team's leading light. On his day, he can rival the world's best, beating Julian Alaphilippe at the 2021 Bretagne Classic and a host of big names at last autumn's GP Québec.

He dabbled in the cobbles but the Ardennes remains his most important period, where that best version has to come out.

Our outsiders

Axel Zingle (Cofidis)

Axel Zingle has quietly impressed since starting as a stagiaire in 2021 and turning pro at the start of last season and appears closer and closer to a big breakthrough.

The French puncheur looks tailor-made for the Ardennes Classics, with decent climbing ability and a sharp turn of pace. He won the Route Adélie de Vitré, the Famenne Ardenne Classic, and a stage of the Arctic Race of Norway last year, and this term he has stepped up his programme with a series of higher-level races.

Two top-five results at Challenge Mallorca and two podiums at the Tour of Oman were followed by victory at the Classic Loire Atlantique and a solid debut cobbled Classics campaign.

On Wednesday, he was an encouraging fifth at Brabantse Pijl, coming to the fore on the repeat climbs of the Moskestraat. The win went the way of a breakaway of sub-favourites but Zingle was still second from the reduced peloton.

Amstel Gold Race is a big step up in terms of distance, difficulty, and quality but the Frenchman has not yet reached his potential and Sunday could mark another step up in his career.

Mauro Schmid (Soudal-QuickStep)

In the absence of Julian Alaphilippe, Soudal-QuickStep turn to the Ardennes Classics without much hope of immediately repairing the wounds inflicted over the course of the cobbled campaign. And yet, in Mauro Schmid, they have a rider who's in great form and could pull off a surprise.

Alaphilippe is injured and Remco Evenepoel - despite the 'fake news' that flew around earlier this week - will only drop in for Liège, so it's down to Schmid and Andrea Bagioli to bag a result for the Belgium team at Amstel Gold and La Flèche Wallonne.

Bagioli is a decent card in himself but it's Schmid who stands out for his recent run of results.

The Swiss rider, picked up from the folding Qhubeka team at the start of last season, has had a strong start to the year, placing fifth at Tour Down Under before winning the Settimana Coppi e Bartali.

More recently he caught the eye at Itzulia Basque Country, with two stage podiums and two further top 10s to round the week in 11th overall.

The 23-year-old, who won the gravel stage of the 2021 Giro d'Italia, is a strong all-round package and could be one of the dark horses on Sunday.

Atilla Valter (Jumbo-Visma)

We've already mentioned Tiesj Benoot, who's Jumbo-Visma's more obvious leader, but Atilla Valter has made such a strong start to life at the Dutch team that he cannot be ruled out of the Amstel equation.

The Benoot-Valter combination will conjure up memories of last month's Strade Bianche, where the pair combined - or failed to combine - in the chase group behind solo winner Tom Pidcock.

Benoot was seen remonstrating with Valter when he believed his teammate had dragged other key riders across to his attack, with the Hungarian champion addressing the controversy in a lengthy social media statement. There was no ill-feeling but communication could have been better, he concluded, pointing out this was their first race together and his first major Classic.

If they can fix those communication problems, Jumbo-Visma have a potent combination on their hands.

Valter is just one of a number of riders who appears to have found an extra gear in yellow and black, even if he was clearly showing his strength at Groupama-FDJ last term.

After placing fifth at that Strade Bianche and fourth at O Gran Camiño, he comes into Amstel off the back of an impressive week at Itzulia in which he supported Jonas Vingegaard to the overall title and took 13th place for himself.

Mattia Skjelmose (Trek-Segafredo)

The 22-year-old Dane continues to get stronger and his one-day credentials will really start to be tested in the Ardennes this year.

This season has continued last year's trend of him being a real threat in lower-level week-long stage races, but he has also registered podiums at the Ardèche Classic and GP Indurain, as well as sixth at the Drôme Classic.

There was disappointment at his WorldTour-level stage races, as he crashed out on the penultimate stage of Paris-Nice and then fell apart on the final day of Itzulia having started it on the overall podium.

Still, he continues to develop and possesses the combination of power and punchy climbing needed to do well at Amstel, not to mention a fierce finishing kick. He lines up alongside the experienced Bauke Mollema and another outsider in Quinn Simmons.

Ide Schelling (Bora-Hasngrohe)

There's no Max Schachmann or Bob Jungels in Bora-Hansgrohe's squad but they still boast a strong line-up, with Sergio Higuita a credible contender and Jai Hindley another big-name leader.

If you're looking for a true outsider, how about Ide Schelling, who loves this race.

The 25-year-old Dutchman arrives in the Netherlands, having won a stage at Itzulia and come closer on numerous occasions at the Volta a Catalunya. A

part from his fourth place at the 2021 Brabantse Pijl, he has never had a big impact on a major classic but his recent results suggest he could be a step closer.

He won't be the main threat from Bora-Hansgrohe but could be someone who can do something from an earlier move. Either way, with his charismatic style on the bike, it's unlikely to be boring.