Bond strategists upgraded their U.S. Treasury yield forecasts for coming months to their highest since at least November amid sticky inflation and greater conviction in financial markets of fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, a Reuters poll found. After hitting a cycle peak of 5.02% in October 2023, the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield plummeted over 110 basis points by year-end as traders rapidly priced in nearly 150 basis points of Fed interest rate cuts in 2024. Persistent inflation and strong U.S. economic data have forced markets to dramatically delay those rate cut bets and slash 2024 rate cut pricing to roughly 50 basis points.
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