Yahoo MLB: Saturday Picks

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Yahoo MLB: Saturday Picks
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If you want to really delve into the MLB action Saturday, you'll need to be ready in the afternoon. There are only four games that are scheduled for the evening. You don't have to be an early bird, though, because 13 of the games starts at 4:05 p.m. EDT or later. Want a bit of a boost to your odds of DFS success? Consider these lineup recommendations.

Pitching

Framber Valdez, HOU at OAK ($51): We are getting closer to the day when the Athletics will be last in batting average, OBP, slugging percentage and runs scored, with only the last of those a holdout at the moment. This is the number-one offense to target in DFS, and frankly I wouldn't mind having a pitcher going against them every single day Oakland is on the schedule from here until the end of the MLB season. Saturday it's Valdez who gets this matchup, and he has a 2.67 ERA already.

Brandon Woodruff, MIL vs. PIT ($50): After a rough few games that inflated his ERA, Woodruff has been on fire. Over his last five starts he has an 1.73 ERA. He remains an excellent strikeout pitcher as well, with his 11.69 strikeouts per nine innings. The Pirates are 28th in runs scored and have a sub-.300 OBP, so Woodruff should stay hot.

Kyle Wright, ATL vs. WAS ($40): Wright has turned the corner from "This guy was a top pitching prospect?" to "OK, I see what evaluators saw in him" in 2022. He has a 3.06 ERA and has struck out 9.19 batters per nine innings, and he's still only 26 so it's not like he's a terribly-late bloomer. With Juan Soto not carrying his usual load this year, the Nationals have fallen into the bottom five in runs scored.

Top Targets

Since returning from injury, Mookie Betts ($21) has been crushing it, and on the year he's slashed .272/.348/.552 with 20 home runs and six stolen bases. With Justin Steele away from the Cubs on the childbirth beat, it seems like Drew Smyly might be stepping into the rotation in a return from an oblique injury. The lefty has a 4.72 FIP.

It's a revenge game for Starling Marte ($19)! I'm being facetious about Marte's brief tenure with the Marlins, but I do like him in this matchup. Marte has nine homers and 10 stolen bases this year, and last year he had 47 swiped bags (including 22 in 64 games with Miami). It's trickier to steal bases on a lefty like Braxton Garrett, but Garrett has allowed lefties to hit .343 against him and righties to hit .292 against him in his career, so Marte should be just fine.

Bargain Bats

It's shaping up to be a full-on breakout campaign for Andres Gimenez ($15), who is hitting .295 with nine home runs and six stolen bases. He also has an .877 OPS against righties. Jonathan Heasley has a 5.30 ERA in his career, and has allowed 1.51 home runs per nine innings in his brief MLB career as well.

This has been a bit of a tough campaign for Jared Walsh ($11), though he still has 13 home runs. The lefty has been fine against righties as well, and since 2020 he has a .918 OPS against right-handed pitchers. Dean Kremer has a 2.48 ERA, but a 3.41 FIP. He also has a 5.16 FIP in his career, so I feel like he's been a bit lucky through six starts.

Stacks to Consider

Braves vs. Nationals (Patrick Corbin): Dansby Swanson ($25), Austin Riley ($24), Marcell Ozuna ($20)

Corbin has dropped his ERA to 5.68, getting it below the 5.82 ERA he had last season so, um, congratulations to him on that. Of course, he still has a 7.39 ERA on the road, and he's allowed righties to hit .305 against him, in line with the .307 average he's allowed in those matchups since 2020. Fortunately, the Braves provide a nice all-righty stack option.

Swanson has 14 home runs and 14 stolen bases, and he's crushed at home and against lefties. He has a .953 OPS versus southpaws, and a .954 OPS at home. Riley has actually picked up his power from last season when he slugged .531 and hit 31 home runs in his breakthrough year. This time around he's slugging .540 with 21 homers. Ozuna is swinging from his heels, as he's only hit .229 but has 17 home runs. Against righties he's slugged .498 as well.

Rays at Reds (Hunter Greene): Randy Arozarena ($20), Ji-Man Choi ($20), Harold Ramirez ($18)

Greene's rookie season has been a trial by fire. He has a 6.01 ERA and has allowed 2.50 home runs per nine innings. While he's struck out a lot of batters, clearly when hitters connect a lot of damage is getting done. I have two righties in this stack, as righties have hit better against Greene so far, but I would not be afraid of a lefty either, given the same size.

Last year Arozarena had 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases. This year he only has nine homers, but he has 18 stolen bases. He also has an .823 OPS on the road. Choi has slashed .282/.383/.462. Since 2020, he has an .823 OPS against righties as well. Ramirez is hitting .314, and he has four home runs and three stolen bases as well.

Yankees at Red Sox (Kutter Crawford): Gleyber Torres ($18), Matt Carpenter ($13). Josh Donaldson ($12)

The Yankees have some huge hitters in their lineup. However, I've decided to delve a little deeper for this stack. You don't rack up as many runs as they do without some depth. We have Crawford pegged for a start here, which would be his third of the season and the fourth of his career. Thus far, he has a 6.33 ERA and 4.81 FIP in the majors.

Torres has an .875 OPS over the last three weeks. He also has an .831 OPS on the road and since 2020 he has an .851 OPS against lefties if he ends up facing a southpaw out of the bullpen. I could see the bullpen being a big factor for Boston in this one, which is why I mention it. In limited action, the lefty Carpenter has slashed .305/.406/.814 with nine homers. I want to get a lefty against a righty, and Anthony Rizzo has been banged up and Joey Gallo is having a tough campaign. Thus, Carpenter it is! Donaldson has really struggled at home, but on the road he's posted an .858 OPS.