Liz Loza, Andy Behrens & Matt Harmon discuss three players they're targeting at their current ADP: Ravens RB Mark Ingram, Chargers WR Keenan Allen and Buccaneers RB Ronald Jones.
LIZ LOZA: So we're talking about these players, and we're talking about their ADPs. But I want to skew positive a little bit. I want to talk about players we really like at their current ADP. Andy, I'm going to start with you. Talk to me about a particular running back going in the fourth round.
ANDY BEHRENS: Yeah, listen, I get Mark Ingram everywhere. I feel like there's-- the JK Dobbins factor has just been built into his average draft position, right? Like, we're all expecting big things from Dobbins. He's a wonderful collegiate player, a 2000-yard back, great, he's the future of the running back position for Baltimore.
Listen, Mark Ingram scored 15 touchdowns last year. He averaged five yards per carry. And when something works spectacularly well for a team, not just, like, pretty well, but when something works spectacularly well for a team, I just never expect them to veer away from it.
So, like, Ingram is on the wrong side of 30, there's a lot to worry about long term, but in 2020, Mark Ingram is still going to be the guy. The other thing about Ingram last year is that he could have done more except Baltimore just kept blowing people out. They kept rolling up 40-point halves, and then Mark Ingram would sit.
Like, there is a-- there is definitely a path for Mark Ingram to again give us double digit touchdowns. Incredible efficiency. The Ravens ran the ball, like, 100 more times than any team in the NFL. So there's plenty of volume here, even when they get Dobbins involved. Ingram was a top eight fantasy back last year, and he can do the same this season.
LIZ LOZA: It's interesting, Matt, because Andy is talking about a player that worked out "spectacularly well," to quote, last year. So why move away from him? And yet, you're going to talk about a player who has done nothing spectacular except suck. And no one wants to move away from him.
MATT HARMON: I mean, Liz, come on. You're-- this is your guy, Ronald Jones. And like, to be fair, he was all right last year. You know, when you look at the totality of the picture, over 30 catches--
LIZ LOZA: Oh, Matt, hold on. Hold on.
MATT HARMON: --700 yards.
LIZ LOZA: I'm going to quote you. I'm going to quote you. Bruce Arians came out of retirement to start Peyton Barber?
MATT HARMON: Yeah, right. I get it. I mean, look, it wasn't the smoothest sailing ride. But I'm going to say he hasn't been hideous so far as an NFL player. And look, the deal with Ronald Jones this year is you don't even have to be one of the RoJo fan club members like you are, Liz, to really like the player because his ADP is so attractive right now. And that's what I really like about this guy.
Because look, here's the deal. Like, I think we-- well, you can decide whether you really think the Bucs are going to be some elite offense under Tom Brady. But they're probably going to be at least a top 15 unit, right? I mean, with these receivers, with Bruce Arians and Byron Leftwich calling the show, I think this is going to be a productive offense.
And you can really get the starting back for this offense. And I do expect Ronald Jones to be the clear starting back because Ke'Shawn Vaughn has completely kind of fallen out of the picture here because, you know, he's just-- he's starting slow. He's a rookie that was on the COVID list for a while. That's not to be, you know, it's not unexpected.
I don't think LeSean McCoy is a gigantic threat. And they haven't been talking about LeSean McCoy as if he's a gigantic threat to Ronald Jones' job. The team still seems like they're really behind this guy. And you can get a starting running back on a very good offense, it-- like, way after the sixth round.
So you don't have to project Ronald Jones to be some sort of, you know, 400 touchback to really be a very good value where he's going in drafts right now. So I think especially if you're-- and if you end up starting wide receiver heavy, like, you didn't just like the running backs where they were coming to you in the early rounds, maybe you went George Kittle, you need some more running back help. I think Jones is a very safe pick.
Because no matter-- again, no matter what you think about the player, I'm not saying he's going to be a superstar running back or anything, but the pros right now for Ronald Jones' fantasy outlook way, way outweigh the cons, especially where he's going in drafts.
LIZ LOZA: So RoJo has a great situation and a depressed ADP. I am-- I will say I am grateful that the Ke'Shawn Vaughn hype has quelled. Because newsflash, he's not that great. Forget reps, like, he's also just not particularly good. I am a little bit worried about Bruce Arians' affinity for a veteran running back, which we saw illustrated via Chris Thompson running ahead of Dave Johnson, David Johnson, until, like, you know, Thanksgiving, basically.
I'm a little bit worried about Bruce Arians being fickle in that manner. But you make excellent points all around about not liking necessarily the player but loving the position. I'm going to talk about a player that I think all three of us undeniably dig. It's Keenan Allen. Y'all, he's a wide receiver one. I don't know who needs to know this.
He has also been wildly consistent having gone over 1,000 yards and managing at least a wide receiver 12 fantasy finish for three consecutive seasons. Per PFF, he's also posted the fourth best receiving grade in the NFL since 2017. Now, I am aware that there is a change in quarterback for the Chargers. That has crossed through my news ticker. I got it.
But I also feel like Keenan Allen is incredibly talented. He's a wide-- he's a wide receiver one, an incredible route runner, a technician. And when you have Mike Williams dealing with a sprained shoulder, that doesn't-- that doesn't bode well for the rest of this receiving corps. I'm going to take the wide receiver one, and I do think that Tyrod can check down to him regularly.
He's going at the top of the sixth round. That is wild value for a player this talented.
MATT HARMON: Yeah, if Tyrod's the quarterback that he was in Buffalo, like, this whole outfit is undervalued. And people are projecting, like, the Chargers to lose 100 pass attempts off their total from last year. I don't think so. If you can get-- you easily projected him for, like, 540. And Keenan Allen gets a 23%, 24% percent share of that. He's going to catch 85, 90 passes again, great call.
LIZ LOZA: The overreaction is crazy. Like you just said, he's not going to catch 100 balls this year, 85, 90 for 1,000 plus yards and six touchdowns, absolutely. That is like a wide receiver in the teens, not the 20s.