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NHL Playoffs: Wednesday DFS picks and fades

Chris Morgan
·5 min read

We had the first two series of the second round of the NHL playoffs begin Tuesday. Now, here on Wednesday, the second two series kick off. It's time for some more DFS action. Let's savor the time when we have multiple NHL games basically every day while we can. Here are some players to target, and to avoid, for your DFS lineup.

GOALIE

Antti Raanta, CAR vs. NYR ($28): Wednesday, we have the teams that finished sixth, seventh, and ninth in goals per game this season. Then, we have the Rangers, who finished 17th. Not only that, they averaged 29.2 shots on net per contest, which was also below average. Raanta may be a backup goalie, but he had a 2.45 GAA in part because the Hurricanes finished first in shots on net allowed per game.

GOALIE TO AVOID

Mike Smith, EDM at CGY ($36): Smith has the "hot goalie" narrative going right now, but can the 40-year-old netminder sustain that? He had a .915 save percentage in the regular season, and he did mix in two bad games in the first round against the Kings. Calgary averaged 3.55 goals and 35.5 shots on net per contest. The Flames will make the Battle of Alberta tough on the veteran.

CENTER

Mika Zibanejad, NYR at CAR ($29): I recommended avoiding Smith in net, and I stand by that, but in truth looking at these four defensive and goaltending situations I don't see an obvious matchup to target. They are pretty even, so I need to look for signifiers other than goalie play. Zibanejad was fantastic over the last two games of the first round, notching seven points. He totaled 11 points and 24 shots on goal in the series, so I'm riding a hot player and a first-line center.

NEW YORK, NY - MAY 15: Mika Zibanejad #93 of the New York Rangers smiles after a 4-3 overtime win against the Pittsburgh Penguins in Game Seven of the First Round of the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Madison Square Garden on May 15, 2022 in New York City. (Photo by Jared Silber/NHLI via Getty Images)

CENTER TO AVOID

Elias Lindholm, CGY vs. EDM ($28): Lindholm had five points against the Stars, but not a single game with multiple points. The Swede also only has two power-play points in his last 25 games. The Oilers only had the 17th-ranked penalty kill, and Lindholm may not be able to take advantage of that. Plus, a lot of that penalty kill had nothing to do with Smith, who only played in 28 games this season.

WING

Seth Jarvis, CAR vs. NYR ($17): The Hurricanes like to make it easy for their rookie Jarvis. He plays on the top line with Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov. On top of that, he's started 66 percent of his shifts in the offensive zone in the playoffs, most on the Hurricanes. Igor Shesterkin is going to win the Vezina, but in the first round he had a 3.66 GAA and .910 save percentage.

Tyler Toffoli, CGY vs. EDM ($15): Toffoli was snakebit in round one in a way I don't expect to continue. He put 23 shots on net but only tallied one goal. That's a 4.3 shooting percentage, and that should regress toward the mean. Indeed, his goal came in Game 7, so maybe the regression has already begun. When you can get in on a guy before he turns things around, it's that much better for you from a DFS perspective.

WINGS TO AVOID

Artemi Panarin, NYR at CAR ($28): Panarin did more playmaking than goal scoring, as he had 22 goals on 177 shots on net in 75 games. The Hurricanes, as I noted, finished first in shots on goal allowed. They also had the top penalty kill, and 37 of Panarin's 96 points came with the extra man.

Zach Hyman, EDM at CGY ($19): Hyman spent a lot of the season on Connor McDavid's wing. Against the Kings, though, McDavid and Leon Draisaitl got put together on the top line, dropping Hyman to the second line. Maybe the Oilers will recalibrate for a new series, but we shall see. What I do know is that the Flames finished in the top six in GAA, shots on net allowed, and penalty-kill percentage.

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DEFENSE

Tony DeAngelo, CAR vs. NYR ($24): DeAngelo had eight points in the first round, though the fact he averaged 5:12 with the extra man was part of that. He had 51 points in 64 regular-season games, and DeAngelo feels like the kind of dude who would get hyped to take on his former team. The Rangers did have the seventh-ranked penalty kill, but that's third best of these four teams.

Michael Stone, CGY vs. EDM ($18): The Flames dropped Stone into the lineup when Chris Tanev got banged up and, well, nobody expected this to happen. They started Stone in the offensive zone a stunning 80 percent of the time, and he averaged 2:09 on the power play as well. The veteran paid off the trust with three points and 17 shots on net in four games. Can he keep this up? At this salary, I'm happy to find out with some skin in the game.

DEFENSE TO AVOID

Tyson Barrie, EDM at CGY ($18): Every time Barrie and the Oilers took the ice in the first round and I was writing a DFS article, I recommended him. Barrie is a power-play specialist, and the Kings had the 22nd-ranked penalty kill. Things are different now. Barrie hasn't changed, but the matchup has. The Flames ranked sixth on the penalty kill, and they are at home to boot.

Rasmus Andersson, CGY vs. EDM ($15): There was a stretch during the regular season when I was high on Andersson. For a while, though, he's been cold. He has six points in his last 16 games, and he's only put 36 shots on net in that time. The Oilers allowed 32.3 shots on goal per contest, but Andersson may not be primed to take advantage of that.