John Deere Classic DFS picks and strategy
John Deere Classic
Silvis, Illinois
TPC Deere Run - Par 71 - 7,289 yards
Field - 156 entrants
Purse - $7.1M
The Preview
A vast pool of household names that haven't left for LIV are headed instead to Europe in the near future for the upcoming Scottish Open as well as St. Andrews prep ahead of the season's final major championship, but daily fantasy golf never sleeps, and that's the beauty of an event like the John Deere Classic. An extremely weak field, entirely barren of superstar talent, can allow for gamers to find additional edges when attempting to identify hidden gems among a 156-man crowd filled mostly with nobodies. They're still professionals on a relatively easy track, however, so you can expect a birdie barrage at TPC Deere Run where the course's primary defense is the four-inch bluegrass rough that lines its wide fairways. Wedge play from 75-150 yards is going to be key in racking up scoring opportunities on these bentgrass greens, while it's likely to see eventual contenders flirt with the 20-under-par mark by Sunday afternoon.
Recent Champions
2021 - Lucas Glover
2020 - Canceled
2019 - Dylan Frittelli
2018 - Michael Kim
2017 - Bryson DeChambeau
2016 - Ryan Moore
2015 - Jordan Spieth
2014 - Brian Harman
2013 - Jordan Spieth
2012 - Zach Johnson
Key Stats to Victory
Birdie or better percentage
SG: Approach
Proximity: 75-150 yards
SG: Putting (bentgrass)
Yahoo Value Picks
Based on $200 salary cap
Cream of the Crop
Webb Simpson - $45
Coming in at 11th or better in SG: Approach, driving accuracy and Birdie-or-Better percentage over his last 12 measured rounds, Simpson has placed top-30 in three of four starts dating to the PGA Championship. Expanding the sample size to his last 50 rounds, Simpson is No. 7 in proximity from 100-125 yards, indicating strong full wedge play. He most recently tied for 13th at TPC River Highlands, hitting 78 percent of the greens in regulation while also ranking T12 among the field in FIR percentage.
Denny McCarthy - $41
Despite a missed cut at last week's Travelers Championship, McCarthy still managed to earn his most expensive Yahoo salary of the season by a whole $10 this week at the JDC where he's underwhelmed with finishes of MC-MC-T34 in three appearances since 2018. However, McCarthy hits a lot of fairways in regulation and he might be the best putter on the planet right now, which guided him to back-to-back top-10s at the U.S. Open and the Memorial Tournament earlier this month. Throughout his last five measured starts, McCarthy has gained an average of 5.1 strokes per event with the flat stick.
Glue Guys
Kevin Streelman - $34
Streelman has posted three career top-10s here at TPC Deere Run, including in 2018 when he fired three scores of 66 or better while tallying just four total bogeys all tournament. The 43-year-old Chicago native is now fourth in Opportunities Gained over his past 24 rounds, and he just gained 4.9 strokes from tee to green at the Travelers Championship where he notched his fifth top-25 finish of the season.
Scott Stallings - $31
Stallings is slotted into the No. 5 spot in my custom stat model this week, boosted by his rankings of second in SG: Approach, fourth in Prox: 100-125, seventh in Prox: 125-150 and ninth in Opportunities Gained over his past 24 rounds. He's had two spike weeks with his irons dating back to a fourth-place showing at the Charles Schwab Challenge where he picked up 7.8 strokes on the field with his approach shots, before gaining another 7.2 strokes with the irons last week in Connecticut on the way to another top-10 finish. He's gained strokes from tee to green in five straight trips to TPC Deere Run, notably tying for fifth here in 2017.
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Bargain Bin
Patrick Rodgers - $28
Rodgers' putting statistics favor bentgrass surfaces, and he's up to eighth in SG: Putting over his last 24 measured rounds. He also placed T23-T43-2-T27 in his last four JDC appearances, gaining a collective 13.9 strokes off the tee here during this stretch. With five top-35s in six starts since the Mexico Open, Rodgers is simply one of the better players in attendance this week, and I'd have priced him a few dollars above the $33 average salary mark.
Nick Hardy - $23
I've seen outright odds as short as 29/1 on Hardy this week, so the $23 Yahoo salary is a blatant steal, though he figures to soak up a ton of rostership down in this range as a result. Since a runner-up effort at the Korn Ferry Tour's NV5 Invitational, Hardy has gathered even more confidence with results of T35-T14-T8 from the RBC Canadian Open through the Travelers Championship, averaging 4.75 birdies per round last week at TPC River Highlands. Additionally, the University of Illinois product made the cut in each of his first two trips to the John Deere Classic, including once as an amateur.
