Yahoo DFS Golf: 3M Open Picks and Strategy

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Yahoo DFS Golf: 3M Open Picks and Strategy
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3M Open

Blaine, Minnesota
TPC Twin Cities - Par 71 - 7,431 yards
Field - 156 entrants
Purse - $7.5M

The Preview

The post-major, pre-FedExCup Playoffs lull has arrived like a slap in the face after such entertaining golf was played in Scotland the past couple weeks, but DFS always provides enough intrigue to care about an event like the 3M Open no matter the field strength or course difficulty. Only six representatives from the top 50 in the Official World Golf Ranking will be in attendance, so the field really is that awful, though it provides an edge for us when locating the relatively unknown gems who might land near the top of the leaderboard by Sunday afternoon. TPC Twin Cities is a lengthy par-71 layout that features a plethora of water hazards off the tee, so a combination of both driving distance and accuracy is required in order to rack up scoring opportunities and avoid the demoralizing doubles or worse. Bombers should be able to reach all three of the par-5s in two, however, while quality long-iron play will be helpful on several 200-plus yard par-3s as well. Some of the smoothest bentgrass greens you'll find on Tour complete the venue, which is sure to become a birdie carnival if the wind doesn't howl.

Recent Champions

2021 - Cameron Champ
2020 - Michael Thompson
2019 - Matthew Wolff

Key Stats to Victory

SG: Approach
Birdie-or-Better percentage
SG: Off-the-Tee
Proximity: 175-plus yards

Yahoo Value Picks

Based on $200 salary cap

Cream of the Crop

Sahith Theegala - $44

Coming off his best career finish in a major this past week at St. Andrews, Theegala has now placed T34-T16-T2 in three starts dating to the Travelers Championship where he contended until the 72nd hole, and he hasn't missed a single cut in 12 consecutive starts if you exclude the Zurich Classic team event. The 24-year-old has gained an average of 7.45 strokes from tee to green per tournament throughout his last four measured events, and he's eighth in Birdie or Better percentage over his last 12 rounds. I think a lot of lineups will start with a Finau-Steele or Finau-Davis stack, which could help reduce Theegala's rostership as he competes with Adam Hadwin, Davis Riley, Maverick McNealy and Joohyung Kim for exposure in the mid-$40s range.

Cam Davis - $39

Davis has essentially the same, if not shorter, betting odds in the outright market as the aforementioned crew of his competitors in the mid-$40s on Yahoo, so we're getting a bit of a discount at just $39 in that sense. The Aussie is a collective 21-under-par at TPC Twin Cities across his last two outings here, and he just posted back-to-back top-10s at the John Deere Classic and the Barracuda Championship. He's sixth in Birdie or Better percentage over his past 24 measured rounds, and his length off the tee should allow him to see a few eagle opportunities again this week after holing two of them at Tahoe Mt. Club.

Glue Guys

Emiliano Grillo - $34

Grillo is second to none in Proximity: 200-plus yards over his last 24 rounds, and he's also fifth in SG: Off-the-Tee and 10th in P5: 550-600 efficiency during this span. He finally enjoyed a spike week with the putter recently at the John Deere Classic, gaining a season-best 4.1 strokes with the flat stick on the way to a T2 finish. The simple greens at TPC Twin Cities could allow for Grillo to find success on the dance floors once again, though his high-quality ball striking will likely have to carry him. Grillo tied for third at the 2020 3M Open when he gained 8.4 strokes from tee to green.

Adam Long - $28

A hot putter has led to three consecutive top-25 results for Long from the RBC Canadian Open through the John Deere Classic, but he's also gained strokes off the tee in four straight. Expanding the sample to his past 24 rounds, Long ranks top-25 in SG: Approach and proximity from 175 to 200 yards as well. He finished runner-up to Michael Thompson here in 2020, with Long ultimately recording 22 total birdies and an eagle in 72 holes.

Bargain Bin

Wyndham Clark - $26

The jet-lag narrative follows Clark to Minnesota after he made back-to-back cuts overseas at the Genesis Scottish Open and the Open Championship, but he's simply one of the longer hitters in the field and he's capable of draining a ton of putts. That's a scrumptious recipe for TPC Twin Cities, where he placed fifth in 2019 while pacing the tournament in driving distance on the way to a final score of 17-under-par. Over his past 24 rounds, Clark ranks eighth in Prox: 200-plus yards and 12th in P3: 200-225 efficiency

Chris Gotterup - $20

Gotterup burned everyone with a missed cut at the Barbasol Championship when he was the ultra-chalky value play, but he still finished his two rounds on the positive side of SG: OTT and SG: Putting, and he retains the minimum $20 salary on Yahoo. The 22-year-old is No. 1 in both driving distance and Opportunities Gained over his past 12 measured rounds, which sets him up nicely for TPC Twin Cities.