Yahoo DFS Basketball: Saturday Picks (MIA at BOS)

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·5 min read
Yahoo DFS Basketball: Saturday Picks (MIA at BOS)
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This has been a bizarre series so far. Boston got out to a double-digit lead early in Game 1, but Miami won in blowout fashion behind a 39-14 third quarter. Boston took care of business in Game 2, winning by 25 points, which matched their halftime lead in that dominant performance. That makes it hard to predict what will happen here, but a close game appears to be in the cards!

Guards

Marcus Smart, BOS ($24)

Smart was the best player in Game 2. After sitting out Game 1 due to an ankle issue, Smart smashed the Heat with 24 points, nine rebounds, 12 assists, and three steals. Gems like that have been common for Smart recently, maintaining a 41-point average across 39 minutes a night over his last five outings. That's ridiculous from a player well below $30, and it's hard to understand why Yahoo is keeping him so cheap. He's mauled Miami all year, too, scoring at least 33 Yahoo points in each of their last three matchups.

Gabe Vincent, MIA ($11)

Vincent has probably been Miami's second-best player in this series. This fill-in has started 35 games for Kyle Lowry this year, averaging nearly 25 Yahoo points per game. He's been even better recently, scoring 53 combined Yahoo points in the first two games of this series. You simply won't find production like that from another player in this price range, and it makes Vincent impossible to avoid if Lowry is out once again.

Guard to Avoid

Tyler Herro, MIA ($19)

Facing a defense like Boston can be tough on shotmakers, and that's proving to be the case for Herro. The Sixth Man of the Year has 30 or fewer fantasy points in six straight outings, scoring in the teens on four of those occasions. His role is diminishing with the reemergence of Victor Oladipo, too, averaging just 25 minutes a night in that span. That won't get it done from such an expensive player, especially since Herro has 19 or fewer Yahoo points in three of his five meetings with the Celtics this season.

Forwards

Jimmy Butler, MIA ($43)

Miami was horrible in Game 2, but Butler still had another fantastic night. The former All-Star has at least 40 Yahoo points in 10 of his last 11 games, posting a 52-point average in that span. That's obviously the highest total on this single-game slate, and it makes Butler impossible to fade no matter the price. The first thing you need to do is put Butler into your lineup and then compliment him with our next recommendation.

Jayson Tatum, BOS ($42)

Tatum needs to be the second player in your lineup because you can't fade having Tatum and Butler in your build. These two are head and shoulders above everyone else on this slate, with Tatum running Boston's offense. In fact, Tatum has at least 36 Yahoo points in 36 of his last 37 games, averaging nearly 50 fantasy points per game in that span. His playoff numbers are even more impressive, averaging 51 Yahoo points per game across his last six outings. Just get those guaranteed 100 Yahoo points from these two and figure things out from there!

Forward to Avoid

P.J. Tucker, MIA ($12)

Man, it's tough to watch Tucker play right now. He's leaving everything on the line, but it's clear to everyone that he's nowhere near 100 percent. He actually had to leave Game 2 with a knee issue, and that's the same knee that's kept him on the injury report for a month. That's something that won't heal until the offseason, and it's hurting his playing time. Tucker has only surpassed 32 minutes in five of his last 31 games, posting an 18-point average in that span. That makes Tucker tough to trust against the best defense in basketball because we have no clue how long he'll make it in this game.

Center

Al Horford, BOS ($25)

Horford has always been one of the best veterans around, and he's showing why he was a former All-Star in these playoffs. Horford has at least 28 Yahoo points in all but one playoff game, averaging 38 Yahoo points per game across 38 minutes a night. The center has always proven to be a per-minute stud, and if he's playing nearly 40 minutes a night, he should be above $30. The matchup with Miami has not deterred Horford all season, averaging 33 fantasy points per game in their three regular-season meetings.

Center to Avoid

Bam Adebayo, MIA ($24)

Adebayo is my favorite player in the NBA, so if I say to fade him, he's probably a bad play. The simple fact is that Adebayo is not a significant part of this offense right now. He's averaging fewer than 14 points per game in this postseason, scoring 25 or fewer fantasy points in each of his last four outings. That's hard to believe with this guy's stat-stuffing capabilities, but taking 5.5 shots while handing out 0.8 assists shows how little he's touching the ball. Facing Boston's bludgeoning defense only makes this more problematic, with Adebayo being held to crumbs in this series.