Yahoo DFS Basketball: Saturday Picks

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I've found my groove on Yahoo recently, capitalizing on some missteps from their algorithm. Every DFS site has errors in their systems, and Yahoo tends to keep unknown guys at minimum price tags for way too long. We have a few of those here, but we also have some undervalued studs as well. With that in mind, let's get into this Saturday slate!

Guards

Dejounte Murray, SAN at MIL ($33)

Murray looks to be in full-on breakout mode right now. We all expected him to take a leap this year but flirting with a triple-double average makes him one of the most dangerous point guards in the NBA. Dejounte is averaging 16.8 points, 9.2 rebounds, 8.8 assists, and 2.0 steals per game en route to a 46-point average on Yahoo. That's a spectacular total from a $33 player, and it makes it hard to understand why he hasn't jumped closer to $40. Milwaukee isn't as tough as it sounds either, with the Bucks ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency ratings. 

T.J. McConnell, IND vs. TOR ($20)

McConnell has been a cult favorite of many DFS users for years now, and this is an excellent spot for him to succeed. Missing Caris LeVert opened up some ball-handling duties, but Malcolm Brogdon's hammy issue has forced McConnell into the starting lineup. In the last 16 games without Brogdon, T.J. averaged 12.8 points, 4.4 rebounds, 7.6 assists and 1.9 steals across 31 minutes a night. A line like that would be a masterpiece from a $20 player, and it'd be hard to imagine him not paying the 30-35 minutes we anticipate. He ate up Raptor meat last season, too, averaging 38 Yahoo points per game in their three meetings.  

Guard to Avoid

Kyle Lowry, MIA at MEM ($25)

We love the Lowry pick-up for Miami, but it's not a great move for his fantasy value. We say that because he's battling so many good players for touches. Not only are Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo the focal points of this offense, but they also have Tyler Herro swallowing up a ton of usage off the bench. That has led to some ugly games for Lowry, failing to crack 27 Yahoo points in all four games en route to a 23-point average. That obviously won't get it done from someone in this price range, especially with Lowry dealing with an elbow issue. Not to mention, this marks the second half of a back-to-back set, making Lowry a prime candidate to be limited or rested altogether. 

Forwards

Julius Randle, NYK at NO ($44)

The big man is averaging 23 points, 12.2 rebounds, 7.0 assists, 1.0 steals and 1.4 blocks per game. That equates to 53 Y! points per game, one of the highest totals in the NBA. What's made him so valuable is that he's running this offense, generating a 30 percent usage rate. He's also taking the ball up a ton for the Knicks, doing his best Nikola Jokic impersonation. Facing New Orleans is simply a bonus, with the Pelicans ranked 28th in total defense last year and 18th in defensive efficiency this year.  

Jaden McDaniels, MIN vs. DEN ($10)

We don't anticipate McDaniels going off, but this $10 price tag is berzerk. This guy has become a 30-minute starter in Minnesota, averaging 20.3 Yahoo points across 29 minutes a game. That's all you can hope for from a minimum-priced player, doing most of that damage through hustle statistics. Getting 20 fantasy points might not blow your socks off, but think about how nice it is to save that salary and get a minimum-priced player with a 2X floor into your lineup! We also don't mind that he will face a shorthanded Denver team on a back-to-back with a defensively-inept PF like Michael Porter Jr. 

Forward to Avoid

RJ Barrett, NYK at NO ($23)

Barrett was a breakout player in fantasy last season, but all of his value came through volume. He would regularly play 40 minutes a night and take 15 shots a game. That's not who he will be this year, with Evan Fournier and Kemba Walker taking many of those opportunities. It's evident in his first week, with RJ scoring fewer than 27 Y! points in each of his last four games en route to a 23-point average. That won't get it done, considering how little he provides outside of scoring, making him an easy fade until he drops below $20. 

Centers

Mo Bamba, ORL at DET ($25)

The big man has found himself in the Magic starting unit, recording a double-double in four of six games this season. That has led to his 34-point average on Yahoo, which is quite the average from a 23-year-old that continues to grow his game. Getting to face the Pistons might be the best part of this play, though, with Detroit surrendering the third-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season. 

Mitchell Robinson, NYK at NOP ($17)

Mitch-Rob has been too cheap on Yahoo ever since he was drafted. Since then, the big man has been one of the best per-minute producers, averaging over 1.2 Y! points per minute for his career. He's been somewhat close to that this season, averaging 27 Yahoo points per game. More importantly, he's playing 30 minutes a night, indicating that some positive regression is headed his way. All of that makes it hard to believe that he's only $17, especially with the Pelicans allowing the most fantasy points to opposing centers this season. 

Center to Avoid

Clint Capela, ATL at PHI ($24)

Capela is one of the most reliable options out there with his rebounding ability, but Atlanta has yet to let him loose. He came into the season with some heel/Achilles issues, which has held down his playing time. Cap has been capped off at 29 minutes this year, averaging just 8.4 points and 10.2 rebounds across 25 minutes a night. All of that has led to a 31-point ceiling, too, a horrific number from someone above $20. That's problematic from someone this expensive, particularly with Philly allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing centers last season. He scored 27 or fewer Yahoo points in seven of their 10 meetings the previous year, too, never scoring more than 36 Y! points in any of them.