Yahoo DFS Baseball: Tuesday Picks

Mike Barner
Mike Barner likes the look of a Giants stack, featuring catcher Buster Posey, against Antonio Senzatela and the Rockies at Coors Field on Tuesday.
Mike Barner likes the look of a Giants stack, featuring catcher Buster Posey, against Antonio Senzatela and the Rockies at Coors Field on Tuesday.

With only a couple of early start times, we have 13 games to choose from Tuesday for the main Yahoo DFS slate. With so many options to wade through, let's get right down to business and highlight some of the better ones to consider for your entry.

Pitching Overview

Jose Berrios ($51) is the most expensive option, and for good reason. He's recorded a stellar 0.97 WHIP and has shown excellent control with a 4.4 percent walk rate. He's also missing plenty of bats with an 11.3 percent swinging strike rate and a 25.1 percent strikeout rate. Faced with a matchup against a Blue Jays team that has the fourth-lowest OPS (.659) in the league, Berrios is worth his lofty price tag.

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While Berrios certainly has a favorable matchup, Jon Lester ($46) has the best of the night for his start against the Marlins, who have scored the fewest runs (97) and have the lowest OPS (.603). He already has a 3.45 xFIP across his first five starts and has even recorded a 26.5 percent strikeout that would be his highest mark since 2009. He's unlikely to continue at such a pace based on his 8.7 percent swinging strike rate, but this is still a matchup to exploit.

As far as cheap options go, it might not be a crazy idea to take a chance on Griffin Canning ($31) in tournament play. Although he allowed three runs across just 4.1 innings in his first start, he did record six strikeouts. He's shown strikeout upside in the minors and has done a great job of limiting home runs, allowing just eight of them in 129.1 career innings. The Tigers are tied for the second-fewest runs scored (109), so there is the potential for some value here.

Key Values/Chalk

With David Hess set to start for the Orioles, the Red Sox will likely be one of the highest-owned stacks for the evening. He's allowed at least four runs in four of his last five starts and he has just 22 strikeouts over 30.1 innings this season. He's also allowed 30 home runs across 133.2 innings in his career, so this could get ugly in a hurry.

It's hard to pass up rolling with the Astros lineup considering how hot they are. They now have the highest OPS (.837) in the league and are set up with a favorable opportunity to remain productive against Danny Duffy and the Royals. He's only made two starts so far this year, but Duffy had plenty of problems keeping runners off base last year, leaving him with a 1.49 WHIP.

Another underwhelming pitcher set to take the mound is Tyler Mahle against the A's. While Mahle's strikeout rate has improved to 24.4 percent, his swinging strike rate is actually down 1.5 percentage points from last season, so he might not be able to keep this up. His 44.2 percent hard hit rate allowed is alarming, as well. Add in his career 1.5 HR/9 allowed and the powerful A's lineup could be in line for a productive evening.


Red Sox vs. Hess (Orioles)

Mookie Betts (OF - $25), Andrew Benintendi (OF - $21), Mitch Moreland (1B - $17)

Betts has officially broken out from his slow start, hitting 17-for-44 (.386) with two home runs and five doubles across his last 11 games. While expensive, his upside is off the charts. Hess allowed a .352 wOBA to left-handed hitters last year, making Benintendi and Moreland two excellent running mates for Betts in a Red Sox stack.

Astros vs. Duffy (Royals)

Alex Bregman (3B - $23), George Springer (OF - $22), Jake Marisnick (OF - $9)

As bad as Duffy was last year, he still held lefties to a .284 wOBA. However, righties recorded a .344 wOBA, so that's the route to take for an Astros stack. Bregman is scorching hot with five home runs across his last six games, so he's too good to pass up. Not to be outdone, Springer is 9-for-25 (.360) with three home runs during his current six-game hitting streak. Marisnick provides some upside at a cheap price, making the hefty price tags of Bregman and Springer a little easier to swallow.

Athletics vs. Mahle (Reds)

Matt Chapman (3B - $21), Marcus Semien (SS - $16), Matt Olson (1B- $12)

With Mahle's propensity to allow home runs, Chapman stands out as someone to build an A's stack around. He checks in with a robust .302 ISO, which is extremely impressive considering his 12.6 percent strikeout rate. Semien has also been tough to put away with a 14.4 percent strikeout rate to go along with his 126 wRC+. Olson (hand) is set to be activated from the IL for this game and is an intriguing cheaper option since Mahle has allowed a .410 wOBA to left-handed hitters during his career.

Giants vs. Antonio Senzatela (Rockies)

Steven Duggar (OF - $15), Kevin Pillar (OF - $17), Buster Posey (C - $16)

The Giants have scored the fifth-fewest runs (122), so they might not stand out as a team to stack. However, they'll receive the Coors Field bump Tuesday. They also have the benefit of facing Senzatela, who allowed a 4.32 xFIP and a 1.68 WHIP at home last season. Duggar is starting to heat up with at least two hits in three of his last five games while Posey is 13-for-40 (.325) with two home runs and six doubles across his last 12 contests. While Pillar has a disappointing .195 average, he's been victimized by an abnormally low .202 BABIP. The good news is he already has five home runs after hitting 15 all of last season.

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