Yahoo DFS Baseball: Sunday Picks

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·5 min read
Yahoo DFS Baseball: Sunday Picks
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We're midway through July and approaching the All-Star break, but don't take your foot off the gas. Keep it going on the DFS front! Sunday has 14 games on the slate as usual, with only the Peacock game not included. Looking for some insight for your lineup? Here are my recommendations.

Pitching

Julio Urias, LAD vs. CHC ($50): It's a little surprising that Urias is 7-6, given that he has a 2.57 ERA and pitches for a team with a robust set of bats. Maybe the regression has arrived, as Urias is on a four-game win streak. The Cubs are middling in runs scored, which isn't a concern for me given Urias' numbers and the fact Dodger Stadium tends to be friendly to pitchers.

Jake Odorizzi, HOU at OAK ($43): Through eight starts Odorizzi has a 3.66 FIP. This is all about the matchups, though. The Athletics are the worst offense in MLB by basically every measure, including batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, and runs scored.

Shane Baz, TB at CIN ($42): After one rough outing at the start of his return from injury, Baz has looked like one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, which is what he is. Over his last five starts, he has an 1.21 ERA. The Reds are just outside the bottom 10 in runs scored, but they are bottom five in team slugging percentage.

Top Targets

Given the strength of the lineup, Michael Harris ($21) often hits ninth for the Braves. That's in spite of the fact the rookie is hitting .303 with seven homers and six stolen bases. Paolo Espino's 3.33 ERA doesn't tell the full story, as he started the year in the bullpen. In five starts he has a 4.91 ERA.

Jose Abreu ($20) has revved things up, posting a .914 OPS over the last three weeks. Given that he has a career .290/.352/.511 slash line, I'm not surprised. The Tigers are giving Drew Hutchison and his career 4.93 ERA another start due to a lack of options.

Bargain Bats

Being at home against a lefty is where Manny Machado ($18) thrives. He has an 1.006 OPS versus southpaws and an 1.021 OPS at home. Meanwhile, Alex Wood has a 4.83 ERA in part because righties have hit .300 against him.

After a brief battle with a tweaked back, Josh Naylor ($16) has returned to the lineup for the Guardians. He's having a breakout campaign with a .280 average and .510 slugging percentage. The southpaw will face 38-year-old righty Zack Greinke, who owns a 4.85 ERA.

Stacks to Consider

Astros at Athletics (Cole Irvin): Jose Altuve ($20), Kyle Tucker ($20), Alex Bregman ($18)

While Irvin's ERA has dropped from 4.24 last year to 3.35 this year, his FIP has only dropped from 4.30 to 4.19. He's also only struck out 6.33 batters per nine innings in his career, so a lot of contact is being made against the southpaw. Even in Oakland's pitcher-friendly ballpark, I'll still stack these Astros against Irvin.

Altuve has an 1.047 OPS over the last three weeks. Plus, this year he has an 1.140 OPS against lefties as well. Though Tucker is a lefty, I'm still including him. Since 2020, he has an .862 OPS against his fellow southpaws, while Irvin has allowed lefties to hit .283 against him in that same time frame. Bregman has had no issue getting on base, posting a .360 OBP. He also has an 1.036 OPS over the last 21 days.

Rangers vs. Twins (Dylan Bundy): Marcus Semien ($19), Corey Seager ($18), Nathaniel Lowe ($18)

Bundy has dropped his ERA from 6.06 to 4.50 since last season, but that's still not good by any means. Plus, his road ERA still sits up at 5.89. Bundy has also always had an issue with home runs, having allowed 1.61 per nine innings in his career.

Semien isn't hitting for average, but he has 11 home runs and 14 stolen bases. Seager is also not hitting for average, but he has 18 home runs. He's also enjoyed his new home ballpark, where he has an .873 OPS. Lowe has a .925 OPS over the last three weeks. Like Seager, he's also a lefty, and Bundy has let lefties hit .286 against him.

Rockies at Diamondbacks (Tyler Gilbert): Kris Bryant ($20), Brendan Rodgers ($14), Connor Joe ($13)

Even though Gilbert has a 7.57 ERA in Triple-A this year, he's gotten a chance at the major-league level. Unsurprisingly, he has a 6.86 ERA with the Diamondbacks this season. He's also allowed 3.20 home runs per nine innings. The southpaw has kept lefties in check, so I am stacking three righties. No C.J. Cron, though, as he's dealing with a wrist injury.

Bryant has an .892 OPS against lefties since 2020. He missed a big chunk of the season with injury, but when he's played the former Cub has slashed .299/.358/.477. Rodgers loves facing southpaws as well. Since 2020, he has a .318/.367/.585 slash line in those matchups. Joe is yet another Rockies righter with a penchant to rough up lefties. He has a .904 OPS against southpaws since joining the Rockies prior to last season.