Yahoo DFS Baseball: Friday Plays and Strategy
After a flurry of day games Thursday, baseball comes back with a busy night slate Friday. Let's sift through all of the options and highlight some pitchers and hitters to target on Yahoo.
Corbin Burnes ($46) has started to settle in. After giving up 10 runs over 9.1 innings in his first two starts of the season, he has allowed six runs (five earned) across 24.1 innings since. In terms of a surprising stat, his strikeout rate is just 19.7 percent, which is nearly 12 percentage points lower than his career mark. He could bounce back in that department against the Giants, who have struck out the most times in baseball.
Jordan Montgomery ($41) has proven to be a stellar addition for the Cardinals. He pitched well after coming over from the Yankees last season, and he has a 3.34 ERA and a 2.67 FIP over his first six starts this year. More success could be coming for him in a matchup against the Tigers, who have scored the fewest runs in baseball.
Merrill Kelly ($38) loves pitching at home. For his career, he has a 3.45 FIP and a 1.17 WHIP in Arizona, compared to a 4.75 FIP and a 1.30 WHIP on the road. He'll be at home Friday, taking on a Nationals team that has scored the third-fewest runs in baseball. That makes Kelly even more difficult to resist deploying in DFS.
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The Cardinals are struggling, but it's not because of Paul Goldschmidt ($20). He has been his usual productive self, recording a .391 wOBA. If there is a down area for him, it's that he has hit just four home runs. Still, he is a great option against Matthew Boyd ($30), given his career .435 wOBA against left-handed pitchers.
An injury to Jacob deGrom (elbow) has left the Rangers scrambling for a replacement. Dane Dunning ($25) is expected to take his place against the Angels, either as a traditional starter or in a bulk relief role behind an opener. Dunning struggled as a starter last season, recording a 4.46 ERA and a 4.45 FIP. This is a great matchup to roll with the red-hot Shohei Ohtani ($18), who is 17-for-41 (.415) with three home runs, three doubles and a triple over his last 10 games.
Unlike Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado ($10) has not been pulling his weight for the Cardinals. He is really struggling, recording a .081 ISO and a .270 wOBA. However, he does have a career .406 wOBA against left-handed pitchers, so he could provide value in a matchup against Boyd.
Going back to the Angels' matchup against Dunning, Zach Neto ($7) is also a viable target. He made a big jump to the majors, never playing above Double-A before being called up in the middle of April. After initially struggling, he is starting to show why he is such a highly regarded prospect, hitting 14-for-42 (.333) with two doubles over his last 12 games.
Stacks to Consider
Mets vs. Antonio Senzatela ($25), Rockies: Pete Alonso ($19), Francisco Lindor ($18), Brandon Nimmo ($17)
The Rockies starting rotation has been hammered by injuries. Luckily for them, Senzatela will come off the IL to make this start. However, he has not exactly pitched well, posting a 4.37 FIP and a 1.45 WHIP for his career. His inability to keep hitters off base could be a problem against Nimmo, who has a .365 wOBA to go along with his 17.4 percent strikeout rate.
Braves vs. Dean Kremer ($25), Orioles: Austin Riley ($14), Matt Olson ($20), Eddie Rosario ($11)
Kremer has been hit hard, allowing at least four runs in five of his six starts. His WHIP sits at 1.58, and he has given up seven home runs across 29.2 innings. That is a deadly combination when facing the Braves, who have one of the most feared lineups in baseball. Olson has been one of their most potent bats, recording a .285 ISO and a .383 wOBA.
Phillies vs. Chris Sale ($35), Red Sox: Trea Turner ($15), J.T. Realmuto ($16), Nick Castellanos ($19)
Sale has been inconsistent for the Red Sox. He does have two starts in which he has pitched at least six innings and allowed just one run. However, he has also given up at least five runs in a start three times. Although he is still striking people out, his 1.47 WHIP is not helping his cause. Not only is a Phillies stack appealing, but including Realmuto in one might be ideal. The catcher's spot can be difficult to fill, so the combination of his hitting prowess and this matchup could leave him to improve upon his .760 OPS.