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Although last week‘s thrilling race at Texas Motor Speedway had all the makings and feel of an elimination race, it‘s actually Saturday afternoon‘s Draft Top 250 at Martinsville (Va.) Speedway (3:30 p.m. ET on NBC/NBC Sports App, MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) that will officially decide the Championship 4 field at Phoenix Raceway.
A last-lap, last-corner pass for the victory at Texas dramatically affected the outlook for this weekend‘s race. Harrison Burton – who is not championship eligible – passed Noah Gragson — who is championship eligible — to earn his third win of the year.
That victorious maneuver was understandably heart-breaking for Gragson but it simultaneously created a nail-biter of a scenario for Martinsville this week in the first NASCAR Xfinity Series race at the half-mile track since Kevin Harvick won in July 2006.
The top-four ranked drivers following Saturday‘s Halloween afternoon race will move forward with eligibility to race for the 2020 championship on Nov. 7 at Phoenix Raceway.
Stewart-Haas Racing driver Chase Briscoe is the only competitor already in the show for sure after winning at Kansas Speedway two weeks ago.
Austin Cindric, a five-race winner in 2020, is second in the standings, followed by three-race winners Justin Allgaier and Justin Haley.
Brandon Jones is the first driver below the cutoff line, four points behind Haley. Ross Chastain is 15 points back, followed by Gragson (-24) and Ryan Sieg (-43).
Among the playoff contenders, Gragson is the only driver to have visited Martinsville Speedway Victory Lane previously. The driver of the No. 9 JR Motorsports Chevrolet won a NASCAR Gander RV & Outdoors Truck Series race there in October 2017. In fact, he boasts a stellar 4-for-4 mark in top 10s in his four truck starts, never finishing worse than seventh.
That‘s particularly encouraging news for Gragson, who has three runner-up finishes in the last five Playoff races, but still finds himself rebounding from a disappointing 36th-place outcome at Kansas in this round‘s opener. He was a corner away from a victory last week at Texas.
“The way last week ended has definitely fueled a fire to go out to Martinsville and try to dominate the race to get us into the Championship 4,” Gragson said. “This team deserves to be fighting for a championship and I am going to do everything possible on the track to get it done. It definitely gives me more confidence that we are heading to Martinsville, a place where I have had success in the past in the Truck Series.
“I‘m just ready to get out there and do what we have to do to get to Phoenix.”
Certainly the frontrunners expect a highly-motivated Gragson to be a factor this weekend. Cindric, driver of the No. 22 Team Penske Ford, holds a 14-point advantage atop the cutoff line. He‘s competed in three Truck Series races at Martinsville with a best finish of 10th in 2017. He‘d like to put together a more consistent showing this week going forward after a 34th-place finish at Talladega followed by a top 10 at Bristol; a 28th-place finish at Kansas followed by a top five at Texas last week.
He expects this weekend‘s all-important race at an essentially new venue for the drivers to be a legitimate wild card.
“We‘ve seen in the Xfinity Series this year even guys that you don‘t expect to run up front even on some of these short tracks because our cars don‘t have a lot of downforce,” Cindric explained. “We struggle to put down the power, so I‘d expect it to almost be like in the trucks, where you‘ve got guys that you don‘t expect to be running up front and they‘re running up front, whether if that‘s in the top 10 or the top five, so I feel like from a fan perspective there‘s a great possibility for that.
“On the flip side, I think from a racing standpoint everyone is gonna be learning what‘s possible and what‘s not. Obviously, the durable nature of an Xfinity car I think is gonna give a lot of people some second chances in that race, so unless you hit really hard, you‘re not out. I think there‘s gonna be plenty of playoff drivers that are gonna have to never give up all race with how aggressive the style of racing is at Martinsville as of late in the Xfinity Series, so hopefully staying out of trouble.”
Allgaier, the driver of the No. 7 JR Motorsports Chevrolet, is eight points above the cutoff line. He‘s made four NASCAR Cup Series starts at Martinsville with a best finish of 13th-place in 2015. He‘s had only one top-10 finish in the last four races — a 10th place at Kansas two weeks ago. He crashed out last weekend at Texas.
Haley, the driver of the No. 11 Kaulig Racing Chevrolet, has made six Truck Series starts at Martinsville with a best finish of sixth in 2018. He brings some good momentum with a win and three top-10 showings in the last four 2020 playoff races.
Jones, driver of the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota, also has three top-10 finishes in the last four races, but his worst showing was just last weekend, a 25th place DNF at Texas. In five Martinsville Speedway Truck starts, he has a best showing of seventh in 2015.
Chastain, who has shined all season, is still looking for his first top 10 of this all-important playoff round. He was 12th at Kansas and 16th at Texas last week. His work in the Trucks at the half-miler is solid. He has four top-10 finishes in eight Gander Truck starts, including a runner-up showing in last year‘s playoff race. He led 121 laps in two Truck races at Martinsville last season.
Sieg, driver of the No. 39 RSS Racing Chevrolet, has a lot of ground to make up despite an impressive playoff effort for his small team. He has three top-five finishes in the playoffs including a runner-up showing at Talladega. He was third at Kansas to open this round, but finished 31st last week at Texas retiring with mechanical problems. He has one top-10 finish in nine Truck Series races at Martinsville.