WNBA Best Bets: Mercury vs. Fever

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The Phoenix Mercury and Indiana Fever face off today at 1 pm ET as part of a two-game WNBA Saturday slate. PointsBet lists the Mercury as a 7.5-point road favorite, with the total set at 160. After going 2-0 last weekend, I am looking to go back to the spread for my best bet.

Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Odds

This will be the second time these two squads have seen each other this season. In the first matchup, the Mercury were able to hold on to an 84-80 victory. Phoenix is coming into today's matchup riding a seven-game winning steak, following an impressive 103-82 victory over Candace Parker and the Chicago Sky. The win moved them to fifth in the WNBA standings at 16-10 and clinched their ticket to the playoffs.

Meanwhile, the Indiana Fever are second to last in the WNBA standings with a 6-19 record. However, in their last game, they came away with a 74-72 win against the Los Angeles Sparks. They outscored LA 21-16 in the fourth quarter.

Phoenix's success this season can be credited to their offense. They are averaging 82.4 points per game for the season and have an offensive rating of 103.8, which is second-highest in the WNBA. During their current seven-game win streak, they are averaging 89.4 points per game and shooting 49.3% from the floor and 40.4% from three. They have scored over the 100 mark in two of their last three outings.

Individually, the Mercury have one of the WNBA's most dominant players in Brittney Griner. At 6'9", 205 pounds, she controls the paint regardless of her opponent. The seven-time All-Star is averaging 20.6 points, 1.8 assists, and 9.6 rebounds (career-best) while shooting a remarkable 57.5% from the floor (fourth-best in the league). Griner put up 25 points against the Fever in their matchup earlier this season.

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The Indiana Fever come into this matchup averaging just 75 points per game while only shooting 41.4% from the floor and 28% from three. Indiana is not just missing shots - it is making extremely poor shot selections. The Fever have the worst expected field goal percentage in the league at 44.8%. On defense, the Fever give up 83.9 points per game and allow their opponents to shoot an average of 45.1% from the floor and 37.5% from three.

Individually for Indiana, their best player this season has been Kelsey Mitchell. The 2nd overall pick in the 2018 draft is averaging 16.6 points a game, 2.3 assists, and 2.6 rebounds while shooting 41.2% from the floor. She had 20 points in the first matchup against the Mercury this season.

Final Mercury-Fever Prediction and Pick

The Mercury will take care of business and extend their winning streak to eight. Brittney Griner will be able to dominate the paint and find open looks for her teammates on the perimeter against a Fever team that struggles on both ends of the floor.

Additionally, Phoenix is the best team against the spread this season at 16-9-1, while Indiana is 12-13.

Edge: Mercury -7.5

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