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Why are the World Cup favourites floundering?

Mesut Ozil could not find a way to unpick the Mexican defence - AFP
Mesut Ozil could not find a way to unpick the Mexican defence - AFP

The 2018 World Cup is not yet a week old but has already provided a handful of surprise results - mostly involving the tournament’s top teams. Argentina were held by Iceland, Brazil by Switzerland, France squeezed past Australia and Germany lost to Mexico. Even Spain, boasting a squad brimming European and World champions, conceded three goals in their first game.

Brazil took 21 shots, Germany had 26, and Argentina 27. It was not through want of trying that they did not score more.

So what went wrong for each side, and what needs to be done to fix it?

Germany

Joshua Kimmich was hailed as the best right back in the world after his thrilling Euro 2016 performances, playing in the position vacated by the retired Philipp Lahm. Against Mexico, he had just 18 touches in his own half, and spent most of his time bombing forwards. 

He lost the ball 19 times - the second most in the team, and didn’t make a single tackle. This irked Mats Hummels, playing in central defence, who did not hold back after the game, saying: "If seven or eight players attack, then it's clear the offensive force is greater than the defensive stability. Our cover wasn't good, too often it was just Jerome Boateng and I at the back."

Joshua Kimmich touch map - Credit: OPTA
Joshua Kimmich touch map: The right back had at least three times as many touches in the opposition half as his own against Mexico Credit: OPTA

In midfield, the blame was shared. Mesut Ozil won only one of his seven duels and didn’t make a single tackle. Thomas Muller didn’t muster a single shot, and had a pass completion rate of 71 per cent. He gave the ball away 22 times. And Sami Khedira, taken off after an hour, didn’t make a single tackle and gave the ball away for Mexico’s goal.

Up front, Germany had 26 shots, the most by a side without scoring in a World Cup match since 2006. Draxler and Kroos worked hard, but ultimately could not convert. There is no doubt that Leroy Sane could have brightened things up. Timo Werner squandered a big chance just before the final whistle.

Germany have a fantastic squad, full of European and World Cup winners, but they badly under-performed in Moscow. Defensive discipline and midfield steel are required for their remaining group games, for which they are now under serious pressure.

Argentina

Argentina's problem seems obvious: profligacy. Iceland took an absolute hammering, facing down 27 shots from some of the world’s best attackers. Argentina also had 10 corners, 25 crosses, 78 per cent possession and made 751 passes, but could not find a way through for a second. 

The biggest culprit was also the side's biggest talisman. Lionel Messi had 11 shots without scoring - including his saved penalty - which was the most taken fruitlessly at a World Cup finals since 1970. 

Messi reacts to mising penalty - Credit: Juan Mabromata / AFP
Messi's 11 shots were not enough to break the Icelandic defence Credit: Juan Mabromata / AFP

Maybe it was just one of those days for Messi, but - as ever where Barcelona's forward is concerned - you wonder what influence Cristiano Ronaldo's own display the previous night for Portugal against Spain might have had on him. 

Was he trying too hard, attempting to replicate the impact of his Real Madrid rival's hat-trick? If so, he needs to detach and relax. The more he tried against Iceland, the more he seemed to struggle. 

Afterwards, Argentina manager Jorge Sampaoli said: "To evaluate and characterise Lionel Messi's work is difficult because it was an uncomfortable match for him. Iceland played very defensively, blocking all spaces but we did everything we could to win.”

In their next game, against Croatia on Thursday, they cannot be so wasteful.

Brazil

Brazil had 21 shots taken by 11 different players in their draw against Switzerland, as well as seven corners, but their one concern in attack is with Neymar and how he was stifled. 

The Paris Saint-Germain striker became the most fouled player in a World Cup match in 20 years in Rostov: of Switzerland's 19 fouls in the game, 10 of them came against Neymar. Valon Behrami was chief enforcer, tracking the forward all over the pitch, eventually running out of steam by 70 minutes.

Neymar on the ground  - Credit: Joe Klamar / AFP
Neymar was fouled 10 times against Switzerland Credit: Joe Klamar / AFP

Part of the problem stemmed from Neymar taking on too much responsibility. He attempted 11 dribbles during the game but completed just five of those.

Neymar needs more support. Brazil did not dominate the game to the same extent as some of their big rivals in their opening match, with negligible territorial advantage over the 90 minutes, and less possession in the first half. They  lost the ball 124 times - just less than Switzerland’s 130.

Casemiro needs to take these games by the scruff of the neck as he did so well for Real Madrid in Europe this season. Their next test will come against the compact Costa Rica, but Brazil have the talent to unpick the midfield. 

France

France scraped past Australia, relying on VAR and goal-line technology to win 2-1. Hugo Lloris made some fine saves in what was otherwise an ordinary performance from Les Bleus. 

The French squad has been feted as the most valuable in the tournament, worth an eyewatering £950million, but there are question marks over how Didier Deschamps deployed their front three of Antoine Griezmann, Ousmane Dembélé and Kylian Mbappé.

For a start, Deschamps' 4-3-3 formation was unfamiliar - he had used 4-4-2 in qualifying and then 4-3-1-2 in the World Cup warm-up friendlies - and France's unfamiliarity with the system showed against the Australians. 

Combined heat map of Antoine Griezmann, Ousmane Dembélé and Kylian Mbappé in the game against Australia - Credit: OPTA
Combined heat map of Antoine Griezmann, Ousmane Dembélé and Kylian Mbappé in the game against Australia Credit: OPTA

The heat map for Griezmann, Dembele and Mbappe shows how lop-sided France were, with too much emphasis placed on their left hand side. 

Dembélé did not take a single shot in 70 minutes, and lost the ball 14 times. Griezmann did not make a single tackle and lost the ball 13 times, but he did at least have three shots on target. Mbappé had one.

Peru and Denmark should provide stronger opposition than Australia, with the teams ranked 11th and 12th in the world respectively, but with France’s depth and obvious ability, and Paul Pogba looking sharp in midfield, the group stage should be easily navigated.

Spain 

In Spain’s draw with Portugal, we learnt more about Ronaldo’s brilliance than Spain’s shortcomings. A phenomenal free kick, a clinical penalty and a goalkeeper spillage are all tricky to mitigate against, so despite the scoreline, there isn’t much to panic about on the pitch.

Costa will continue to bully defenders, Ramos will continue to bully attackers and Spain will start to win.

Isco’s brilliance in midfield showed why he kept Gareth Bale out of the Real Madrid team for much of last season. The playmaker made 89 successful passes and crucially, 63 of those were going forwards.  

Isco jumps over Bernado Silva's tackle - Credit: TASS / Barcroft Images
Isco starred for Spain, against Portugal Credit: TASS / Barcroft Images

Overall, Spain made more than twice as many passes as Portugal, with 757. Their completion rate was 92.2 per cent, showing that tiki-taka still works.

The main concern for Spain is off the pitch. Fernando Hierro had obvious pedigree as a player, but his managerial track record is patchy. He worked as an assistant to Carlo Ancelotti at Real Madrid, before leaving to manage Segunda Division outfit Real Oviedo. He left after a year having missed out on the play-off places.

Whether he has the tactical nous to navigate his way through a knockout tournament is yet to be seen.

 

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