Why Pac-12 expansion is a more likely outcome than staying at 10 when USC leaves

·2 min read

When USC and UCLA leave for the Big Ten, the Pac-12 will have 10 member schools. One very obvious reason for Pac-12 presidents and chancellors to stay at 10 is that in any new media rights negotiation, the final figure for its media rights package will be split 10 ways, not 12. That’s a larger slice of the pie for each school, an obvious selling point for staying at 10 and not expanding.

However, Jon Wilner of the Wilner Hotline brings up the obvious point in favor of expansion and leveraging the situation so that the Pac-12’s survival becomes more likely five years from now:

We view survival as a 4.5-point favorite over extinction. That’s anything but an overwhelming favorite.

If the conference holds together, there’s a reasonable chance it expands to 12 teams. Why? Because of inventory demands.

As noted above, one of the Pac-12’s chief selling points is the ability to provide inventory for the late TV broadcast windows on both Friday and Saturday.

To meet the inventory demands, it very well could need the additional games that the 11th and 12th teams would provide.

And if expansion is the decision, San Diego State stands as the obvious call.

Houston would be a first-rate addition, depending on availability. We aren’t privy to the documents signed by the university — and whether it would be subject to Big 12 exit fees.

As we keep telling you, getting a larger slice of the pie matters less than making sure the pie is larger.

Would you want a larger percentage of a small pizza or a slightly smaller percentage of an extra-large pizza?

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Massive Big Ten media rights development has numerous implications for USC

Story originally appeared on Trojans Wire