Where might OKC Thunder land in NBA Lottery? Let's take a spin on Tankathon.
The days of breaking down NBA Draft Lottery odds are coming to a close. At least for a little while.
On Tuesday night, the draft order will be finalized, and instead of guessing where the Thunder’s two lottery picks will be slotted, speculation will turn to which players the Thunder might select at its newly-cemented spots.
But there’s still time to take Tankathon.com for a few final spins.
And that’s exactly what we’ll do today: Five spins on the lottery simulation website to get an idea of where OKC’s two lottery picks could land Tuesday night.
For the sake of consistency, we’ll use Tankathon’s mock draft for all selections.
Here we go.
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Spin 1: Picks 7 and 12
No. 7: AJ Griffin, Duke
No. 12: Johnny Davis, Wisconsin
An inauspicious start, but prepare yourselves. This is the Thunder’s second-most likely outcome on lottery night.
OKC deals with the disappointment by selecting Griffin, a sharpshooting 6-foot-6 wing who doesn’t turn 19 until August. Five slots later, the Thunder boosts its backcourt by taking Davis, a score-first guard from Wisconsin.
In this spin, Washington leaps nine spots to land Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren with the No. 1 pick. Auburn’s Jabari Smith goes No. 2 to Houston, and Duke’s Paolo Banchero goes No. 3 to Sacramento.
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Spin 2: Picks 6 and 12
No. 6: Keegan Murray, Iowa
No. 12: Johnny Davis, Wisconsin
According to Thunder fan Tyler Carroll, who ran 15,000 lottery simulations, there’s a 22.8% chance that OKC lands picks six and 12. It’s the Thunder’s most likely lottery combination.
Not the most comforting thought if you’re Sam Presti or a Thunder fan.
Tankathon has the Thunder again selecting Davis at No. 12. And at No. 6? Iowa forward Keegan Murray.
Murray is a skilled big man who can stretch the floor, which in theory makes him an ideal partner for guards Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey. The knock against Murray is his age. He turns 22 in August. Giddey doesn’t turn 20 until October.
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Spin 3: Picks 1 and 2
No. 1: Chet Holmgren, Gonzaga
No. 2: Jabari Smith, Auburn
Had to take a screenshot for proof.
There’s less than two-tenths of 1% chance this dream scenario happens.
OKC jumps to No. 1, which it has a 12.5% chance of doing. And the Thunder’s pick via the Clippers jumps all the way from No. 12 to No. 2, which has 1.7% chance of happening.
Landing one top-two pick would be a massive, perhaps franchise-changing, win. Landing picks one and two, though, might cause the Thunder’s lottery representative to faint on live television.
The Thunder takes Holmgren with the No. 1 pick, and Smith with the No. 2 pick. Not a bad way to start a draft.
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Spin 4: Picks 6 and 12
No. 6: Shaedon Sharpe, Kentucky
No. 12: Mark Williams, Duke
The same combination as Spin 2, but with different players.
Holmgren goes to the Magic at No. 1, followed by Smith to the Pistons, Banchero to the Trail Blazers, Purdue guard Jaden Ivey to the Pacers and Murray to the Rockets.
That leaves Shaedon Sharpe, the enigmatic guard from Kentucky, to the Thunder at No. 6. At No. 12, the Thunder takes Duke big man Mark Williams.
Some experts think Sharpe could be the best prospect in the draft, but he’s a huge risk. He hasn’t played in a real game since high school.
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Spin 5: Picks 2 and 12
No. 2: Jabari Smith, Auburn
No. 12: Johnny Davis, Wisconsin
There’s not a consensus No. 1 pick in the draft, but Holmgren, Smith and Banchero are widely regarded as the top-three prospects. Who knows which one Presti prefers, but landing any of the three would be a boon.
In this spin, Holmgren goes No. 1 to the Pelicans (via the Lakers) and the Thunder takes Smith at No. 2 over Banchero, who goes No. 3 to the Spurs.
At No. 12, Davis is once again the Thunder’s pick.
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This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: Taking a spin on Tankathon: Where Thunder might land in NBA Lottery
