Where do Dolphins’ playoff odds stand after Week 12?

The Miami Dolphins’ hopes of a playoff berth in year two of their rebuild under the direction of the duo of Chris Grier and Brian Flores are well-placed and also very realistic based on how the Dolphins have seen their season unfold and where they currently rank among the AFC’s contenders. If the 2020 season were to end today, the Dolphins would own the conference’s No. 6 seed and have a date in Nashville with an old friend: quarterback Ryan Tannehill and the Tennessee Titans.

But yet the season isn’t set to end — and there’s five games remaining on the schedule for the Dolphins to build up their resume and potentially chase down the Buffalo Bills in the Dolphins’ bid for an AFC East title. That won’t be easy; nor will sealing the deal and securing the team’s second playoff berth since their last AFC East division crown in 2008.

How do the odds favor the Dolphins? It depends on where you look; although most resources offer the Dolphins approximately the same number — right around 50%. ESPN’s Football Power Index currently grades the Dolphins with a 43.9% chance to make the playoffs in 2020. That figure is 4th among wild card hopefuls, trailing the odds of the Baltimore Ravens (83.8%), Cleveland Browns (73.9%) and the Indianapolis Colts (45.3%). Those adds are interesting given that by the end of the day tomorrow the Ravens could potentially trail the team currently sitting in 7th in the order by two full games — but that’s a conversation for another day.

FiveThirtyEight’s NFL projections also offer the Dolphins the 4th-best odds among the AFC wild card contenders at 46%. Miami trails the Colts in a wider margin in this model, giving eight percentage points to the Colts as things currently stand.

But there’s plenty of good news to be had. Miami has three consecutive home games. And if the team is able to go 2-1 in that stretch of games between the Bengals, Chiefs and Patriots, their odds will jump to 65%. How would it look with each possible outcome for Miami at the end of their home stand? Here’s what FiveThirtyEight ranks Miami’s odds at depending on the results of their next three games:

• 0-3: 3% chance to make postseason

• 1-2: 21% chance to make postseason (4% odds to win AFC East)

• 2-1: Approximately 65% chance to make postseason (18% chance to win AFC East)

• 3-0: 95% chance to make postseason (39% odds to win AFC East)

Consider this the playoffs before the playoffs. The Dolphins must show up each and every week and their ability to secure a postseason berth will be deeply rooted in their ability to find two wins over their three game home stand.

First up? Cincinnati.