Where does Oklahoma land in FiveThirtyEight’s College Football Playoff projections?

·2 min read

With college football at the midway point, postseason projections and predictions are in full swing. Most teams in the FBS have played at least 5 games already and as we get closer to flipping the page to November, it only brings us closer to the College Football Playoff rankings.

FiveThirtyEight, led by Nate Silver, uses statistical analysis for polling and predicting results. ESPN has used its analysis to predict the College Football Playoff participants, college football predictions, and bowl games for years. Today, FiveThiryEight released their College Football Playoff Projections, and the Oklahoma Sooners come in with the second-best chance to make the College Football Playoff.

Per FiveThirtyEight

Georgia, Oklahoma, Alabama, and Iowa round out their projected top four. Georgia currently stands as the number one team in the USA TODAY Sports AFCA Coaches Poll and the Associated Press Top 25.

Barring a catastrophic collapse, UGA seems destined to make the playoffs behind the best defense in the sport. Alabama still has a very clear path to making the playoff due to their pedigree and their team. If they can rebound and win the SEC, they’ll be a shoe-in for the playoff.

Oklahoma’s hardly been as dominant as others in this top four but they remain undefeated and may be on the verge of a breakthrough after their big win against rival Texas. A game that saw them find much more dynamic play when they switched to Caleb Williams.

Statistically, here’s how Oklahoma looks going forward as they get ready for TCU. FiveThirtyEight has Oklahoma at a 50% chance to win the Big 12, a 48% chance to make the CFP, and a 10% chance to win the national title.

With a win against TCU, those same numbers jump up to a 55% chance at winning the conference, a 53% chance to make the playoff, and a 12% chance to win the national title while increasing their chances to win out to 19%.

Oklahoma has all of their goals out in front of them and it seems like the numbers back them up. Simply put, just win.

They host a Gary Patterson-coached TCU team who hardly resembles the tough Horned Frogs defenses of the past. However, they are more than capable of causing chaos in Norman.

The Sooners will have to figure out who will start at quarterback, but if they get remotely the same level of production they got from Caleb Williams in the Red River Showdown, then they’ll be a shoo-in for the College Football Playoff.


Top Pro Football Focus Grades from Oklahoma's win vs. the Longhorns