WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational Preview

Dave Tindall
Rotoworld
The FedEx St. Jude Invitational at TPC Southwind takes on WGC status this week and Dustin Johnson will bid for a third win at the course. (Getty Images)
The FedEx St. Jude Invitational at TPC Southwind takes on WGC status this week and Dustin Johnson will bid for a third win at the course. (Getty Images)

Those who haven’t kept a close eye on this season’s schedule may be surprised to see the Open Championship being immediately followed by a WGC event.

Having a major and a WGC in consecutive weeks isn’t a new phenomenon as previously the Bridgestone Invitational had preceded the PGA Championship.

But to have a WGC on the back of a major played overseas adds a different dynamic. This isn’t a gentle wind down at Hilton Head or in Canada; this is one of the biggest money-spinners on the calendar.

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The extra twist is that it’s a new addition to the WGC calendar with the regular-season St. Jude event being promoted in status.

After a string of new courses to try and fathom out, gamers will be glad that the venue hasn’t changed. Yes, TPC Southwind in Memphis has been a permanent stop for 30 years.

Most of those who went in to battle at Royal Portrush have crossed the Atlantic although there are a few notable absentees – Tiger Woods, Rickie Fowler and Francesco Molinari the most obvious.

It's a field of just 64 and the event is no-cut.

 

The Course

TPC Southwind is a tough par 70 measuring in at 7,244 yards. A design team featuring architect Ron Prichard and U.S. Open winners Fuzzy Zoeller and Hubert Green came up with the original layout before Loren Roberts helped upgrade it in 2004, the main alteration being a change of the greens from Bentgrass to Champion Bermuda. A hint on what to expect can be found in its previous place on the schedule. The St. Jude acted as the warm-up event for the U.S. Open and was set up accordingly. There are plenty of water hazards to be found while a key trait is the number of par 4s over 450 yards (eight of them). The Zoysia fairways are also spotted at East Lake and Trinity Forest.

Key Stats

2018: Top five finishers (Dustin Johnson, Andrew Putnam, J.B. Holmes, Stewart Cink and Richy Werenski) all ranked in the top ten for both SG: Approach and SG: Tee to Green. None ranked in top ten for SG: Putting.

2017: Winner Daniel Berger ranked 1st for SG: Tee to Green but 44th in SG: Putting.

2016: Four of the top five (Daniel Berger, Brooks Koepka, Phil Mickelson, Steve Stricker and Dustin Johnson) ranked in the top seven for SG: Tee to Green. Mickelson did it on the greens, 1st SG: Putting.

2015: Fabian Gomez was 1st for SG: Tee to Green although others did it with the flatstick.

Also note that the last three winners were all ranked in the top five for SG: Off the Tee. Long and straight driving certainly works well here. SG: Tee to Green is clearly a key indicator.

 

Quotes

Dustin Johnson: “I just like the golf course. It plays tough. You know, you got to drive it in the fairway and control your ball coming into the greens and, you know, it just seems like every year the scores are never very low here. I hit maybe seven (drivers). I hit a good amount of driver.”

Phil Mickelson: “I think it's the most underrated golf course we play on tour. I think the beauty of this course is in its simplicity and how it really challenges you with precision, not necessarily overwhelming length. But the greens are small. You have to shape shots, and you have to hit it in the proper position or you get blocked out by trees. I think that this TPC Southwind is one of our best courses we have.”

Daniel Berger: “I think a lot of it reminds me of the golf course that I grew up on. Bermuda greens, a lot of familiar tee shots, and overall it's just, it feels like I'm back home. I know it's Memphis, but it reminds me a lot of Florida.”

Steve Stricker: “It's a tough course. You got to really pay attention around here. You got to keep the ball in front of you. You got to put it in play, bottom line. You got to get it in the fairway and if you're playing out of the rough around here it's going to be difficult. You can play out of the rough but you can't control the ball. You get those jumpers and the greens aren't that big so if you want to be aggressive into some of these hole locations you got to be playing from the fairway.”

 

Weather

One other key factor is the weather. This is Memphis rather than Northern Ireland so temperatures are pushing towards the 90s in tournament week rather than creeping into the 60s as they were at Royal Portrush. There’s chance of a t-storm on Sunday but winds look fairly gentle (5-8mph).

 

The Leading Contenders

Dustin Johnson

DJ was a low-key T51 at Portrush and it followed MC (Rocket Mortgage) and T35 (U.S. Open) so something isn't right. That makes him a course form v current form dilemma as he's had great success at TPC Southwind with two wins (2012 and 2018), a fifth, a tenth and a T24 in just five starts. If Tee to Green > Putting this week, DJ should be just fine.

Brooks Koepka

The most vivid impression of Koepka at Royal Portush was him missing putts of around 8-15 feet time and time and time again. As a double U.S. Open champ, TPC Southwind should be a good fit and the evidence is there in a 5-for-5 slate which includes second (2016) and third (2015). A slightly hotter putter should in theory lead to a title challenge but he puts so much in to majors that fatigue could kick in, just as it did when Koepka took T57 at the Travelers the week after the U.S. Open when he admitted he couldn't stop yawning. 

Rory McIlroy

McIlroy shot one of the best rounds of the week at Royal Portrush (a Friday 68) but, unfortunately, it followed one of the worst of his career (Thursday 79). We know his game is in great shape this year (two wins) but who knows where is head is after last week's chastening Open experience. McIlroy last played TPC Southwind in 2012 but T7 shows he liked it and his 2019 ranking of 1st in both SG: Off the Tee and SG: Tee to Green points to a big bounce back week after the MC in Northern Ireland.

Jon Rahm

The Spanish bull led the Open Championship in round one and looked as if he could be the week's dominant force. It didn't play out that way but T11 was his best Open finish by a distance and followed form of 1-2-3. It's his first start at TPC Southwind but he ranks 4th in SG: Off the Tee and 15th Tee to Green so it should be a track that suits.

Justin Thomas 

JT's tied 11th at Royal Portrush was something of a breakthrough for him at The Open after poor previous finishes and could have been even better but for a triple at the 71st hole. It added to T9 in the Scottish Open and he should have a spring in his step after an encouraging fortnight on the links. With his putting starting to catch up with his long game again, Thomas could easily make his first start at TPC Southwind a winning one.

Xander Schauffele

Last year's Open runner-up threatened a repeat performance but a row about a non-confirming driver knocked him a little and a 78 in Sunday's tough weather led to T41. Third in the U.S. Open on his previous start, Schauffele already has a WGC win to his name having landed last October's HSBC Champions in China. Ranks in the top 15 for both SG: Off the Tee and Tee to Green this season. Course debut.

Patrick Cantlay

A third in the PGA Championship and a brilliant performance to win at Memorial made Cantlay a hot pick for the last two majors but he couldn't justify the hype, posting T21 at Pebble and T41 at Portrush. He's another of the elite names seeing TPC Southwind for the first time but, again, his game looks a great fit. Cantlay is 4th Tee to Green, 10th Off the Tee and 12th on Approach.

Tommy Fleetwood

As with Rory, Fleetwood's mindset makes him a tricky one to weigh up and there is no course form to go on either. There were plenty of positives in his second place at Royal Portrush but he was hugely disappointed not to push Shane Lowry harder in Sunday's two-horse race to the finish. His game is definitely trending though after a brief lull and he's another top 20 dweller in both SG: Off the Tee and Tee to Green.

Justin Rose

There's a sense that Rose has done it by smoke, mirrors and a hot putter for 54 holes in the last two majors. But Sundays flush out the flaws and Rose closed with 74 at Pebble to fall to third and crashed to a R4 79 at Portrush to sink from T4 to T20. You can add the Farmers Insurance winner to the lengthy list of top players without a previous start at the course.

Henrik Stenson

Without hitting the peak of his form, Stenson has pieced together three top tens and an Open T20 on his last four starts. And what bodes well for this week, he's done it via top-class ball-striking. Finally, we have a leading contender with some course form. Stenson has pegged it up here three times and posted MC (2009), T13 (2012) and T26 (2018). He's twice shot 66.

Course Form/Neat Fit

Phil Mickelson

Phil loves this place (see quotes) and hasn't finished outside the top 12 in his last six starts at the course. That run includes two second places. Current form a disaster though after four MCs and T52. 

Chez Reavie

The Travelers champ has taken a step back with MCs at the Rocket Mortgage Classic (although opened with 65) and Open Championship but this could get him going again. Last three starts at TPC Southwind show 6th, 4th and 12th.

Billy Horschel

Another TPC Southwind fan. As you would be after connecting four top tens from 2013-2017. T9 at Memorial and T17 at Rocket Mortgage shows game is in good health. Plus, my taxi driver at Royal Portrush had him in the back of his cab earlier in the week and said he was a "nice wee fella".

Brandt Snedeker

Was a regular here for a while before returning from a four-year hiatus with T6 last year (R2 62). Also cracked the top five in 2007 while he was fifth at the Rocket Mortgage Classic two starts ago.

Keith Mitchell 

Sixth in SG: Off the Tee and now he gets some Bermuda greens to go at. Fired three 69s on only visit when T37 in 2018. 66-MC last two starts but opened 69-66-69 in 3M Open and shot a Friday 69 at Royal Portrush.

 

Trending

Tony Finau

Ended run of three missed cuts with T23 at 3M Open and then finished top American at Royal Portrush (third). Crashed out at halfway here last year though and we have the usual Bermuda problem.

Tyrrell Hatton

Lost his way for a while but T8 at Colonial and T21 in U.S. Open before stepping it up on the links via T14 at Scottish and T6 at Royal Portrush. Confidence on the rise again.

Shane Lowry

More trended and peaked than trending but he's been on a roll since tied third at Hilton Head, adding second place in Canada and T8 at Bethpage Black. Fired middle rounds of 67-68 when T30 on Southwind debut last year.

Patrick Reed

Couldn't buy a top ten but now has two in his last three starts - T5 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and T10 at Royal Portrush. Played this course four times from 2011-2014 with a top five and three MCs which is confusing.

Andrew Putnam

Interesting profile this week as he was runner-up in last year's St. Jude, shooting 64 twice. A surprise hit on the links in the last two weeks with a top four in Scotland and T32 in Northern Ireland. Hot putter.

 

Sleeper Picks

Lucas Bjerregaard

Semi-finalist in WGC-Matchplay and boom or bust since. However, the booms have come in big events with T16 in two of the last three majors.

Justin Harding

Rapid riser up the world rankings and surprised with T12 at Augusta National. Went quiet after T10 at Byron Nelson but prominent for 36 holes at Royal Portrush.

Max Homa

Won at Quail Hollow which also has Champion Bermuda greens. He ranked 1st in SG: Putting on them that week.

Bubba Watson

He's 100/1 with some bookies. Ranks 2nd in SG: Off the Tee and made the cut at Portrush which was far from a given. Played St. Jude once (78-69 in 2007).

Keegan Bradley

A long way down the betting but was T25 on only appearance here in 2011 and finished runner-up at Travelers just three starts ago.

Matthew Wolff

Brilliant winner of 3M Open although it didn't get him a place at Portrush. May benefit from that rest and fascinating to see how he performs in a field like this.

Jim Furyk

Shorties can also do well here (Gomez, Crane) and Furyk can guts it out on a par 70. MC in 2017 is only course form we have but he's made last five cuts and last two were majors (T28 and T63).

Cameron Smith

T20 in Open after sitting fifth at halfway and T29 at Rocket Mortgage prior to that. Don't get too caught up with his 82 in R2 here in 2016. Hasn't been back since mind.

Corey Connors

Texas Open winner ranks 8th in SG: Off the Tee, 10th in SG: Tee to Green and 14th in Approach. Course form of 68-MC it has to be said.

Thorbjorn Olesen

Two top 15s in last three outings and also made cut at Open. Has past experience of the course even if it wasn't memorable (73-71).

 

Ranking The Field

1. Justin Thomas
2. Dustin Johnson
3. Brooks Koepka
4. Rory McIlroy
5. Jon Rahm
6. Patrick Cantlay
7. Xander Schauffele
8. Henrik Stenson
9. Justin Rose
10. Tommy Fleetwood
11. Jordan Spieth
12. Webb Simpson
13. Bryson DeChambeau
14. Patrick Reed
15. Jason Day
16. Tony Finau
17. Matt Kuchar
18. Hideki Matsuyama
19. Adam Scott
20. Paul Casey

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