Western Michigan football vs. Eastern Michigan: Scouting report, prediction
Free Press sports writer Evan Petzold breaks down Saturday's 2 p.m. game between the Western Michigan Broncos and Eastern Michigan Eagles at Waldo Stadium in Kalamazoo.
Western Michigan (4-0) vs. Eastern Michigan (0-4)
The coaches: WMU-Tim Lester (54-41 overall, 24-18 with Broncos); EMU-Chris Creighton (164-97 overall, 28-51 with Eagles).
Last game: WMU defeated Northern Illinois, 30-27; EMU lost to Central Michigan, 31-23.
Last meeting: Oct. 19, 2019: EMU won, 34-27.
[ 2020 MAC season: Everything to know about CMU, EMU, WMU ]
Key matchups
WMU QB Kaleb Eleby vs. EMU defense — It was unclear entering the season if Eleby could carry the Broncos like his predecessor, Jon Wassink, especially without standout running back LeVante Bellamy. Well, Eleby has answered the call with each start. He is 56-of-89 passing (62.9%) for 1,138 yards, 12 touchdowns and one interception, adding four rushing TDs.
WMU's offensive approach relies more on Eleby and less on the team's two running backs, La'Darius Jefferson and Sean Tyler. For the Broncos to avoid an upset, Eleby needs to stay sharp in his decision-making and accurate in his throwing. Key moments haven't been too big for him so far.
[ Kaleb Eleby takes reins as WMU QB after learning from Wassink ]
WMU WR D'Wayne Eskridge vs. EMU CB Alvinoski LaFleur — Even if Eleby is sharp, he needs his top wide receiver. Eskridge leads the team in receptions (21), receiving yards (591) and touchdowns (six). He should see a matchup with LaFleur, who is one of EMU's best cornerbacks. While he has allowed 10 receptions on 13 targets, he has two interceptions without giving up a touchdown. Also, opponents only have 71 yards against him. Eskridge is the toughest receiver the Eagles will face this season.
Scouting report
WMU run offense vs. EMU run defense
The run game is WMU's weakest link, yet it ranks No. 7 in the Mid-American Conference with 183 yards per game. The Broncos have two touchdowns each from Jefferson, Tyler and Jaxson Kincaide, but neither are dominant. Typically, that would give the Eagles an advantage, but EMU's run defense ranks No. 10 in the conference, allowing 256.3 yards per game.
Defensive tackles Jordan Crawford and Alex Merritt are the keys to stopping the run. To this point, they've been solid. Yet the linebackers aren't always effective in reading the run and reacting accordingly. Edge: WMU
WMU pass offense vs. EMU pass defense
Expect Eleby to perform well; the Eagles are No. 8 in the MAC with 246 passing yards allowed. Eleby averages 284.5 yards per game and possesses a fearless mentality. Opponents have only sacked him five times, a credit to his offensive line. The group up front is led by tackle Mark Brooks and guard Mike Caliendo. Center Wesley French, guard Dylan Deatherage and tackle Jaylon Moore are among the MAC's best, too.
With Eleby's protection and past success with his arm, the Broncos won't struggle to move the ball through the air. Edge: WMU
EMU run offense vs. WMU run defense
The Eagles have the worst run offense in the conference, with 99 yards per game. That's because their leading rusher is quarterback Preston Hutchinson. He has 58 carries for 155 yards and six touchdowns. Besides his contributions, EMU can't count on much else from Samson Evans (27 carries, 155 yards), Darius Boone Jr. (9 carries, 68 yards) and Trey Bess III (13 carries, 65 yards).
The Broncos rank No. 5 in run defense, holding opponents to 155.8 yards per game. Considering EMU's lackluster running backs, WMU shouldn't have much trouble. Defensive tackle Ralph Holley is the key player to watch. Edge: WMU
EMU pass offense vs. WMU pass defense
Leading pass rusher Ali Fayad could return this week, which means Hutchinson could be in trouble. He hasn't played since exiting from the Nov. 11 win against Toledo. In two games, Fayad recorded two sacks, two quarterback hurries and one QB hit.
The Broncos are fifth-best in the conference in passing defense, giving up 222.5 yards per game. Meanwhile, Hutchinson is inconsistent, completing 86-of-139 passes (61.9%) for 1,100 yards, seven touchdowns and six interceptions. His offensive line hasn't helped much, either, giving up 10 sacks.
Without balance from the running backs, it will be tough for Hutchinson to take advantage of a solid WMU defense. Edge: WMU
Special teams
Thiago Kapps began the season as WMU's kicker, but he was replaced last week after missing a field goal and extra point. He was 20 for 23 on extra points and 2 for 4 on field goals, with a long of 48 yards, before getting benched. Kapps was replaced by Gavin Peddie, who went 2 for 2 on extra points and made his only field goal attempt — from 24 yards — to help the Broncos to a three-point victory against Northern Illinois.
For EMU, Chad Ryland is 8-for-9 on extra points and 5 for 7 on field goals. He has a long of 52 yards.
It's unclear how Peddie will perform as the long-term kicker, but Eskridge is a well-known threat in the return game. He has returned 15 kickoffs for 403 yards and one touchdown, giving the Broncos a chance to score each time he touches the ball. In the second quarter of last week's game, Eskridge returned a kick 100 yards for a touchdown. Edge: WMU
Prediction
If WMU wins this week and Ball State loses (against CMU), the Broncos will clinch the MAC West and travel to Ford Field in Detroit on Dec. 18 for the championship. It's safe to bet on the Broncos handling their portion of the scenario this week. If Ball State defeats the Chippewas, however, it will come down to the final contest, when Ball State travels to WMU on Dec. 12.
WMU holds the cards needed to beat Eastern, from the passing offense to rushing defense, and everything in between. This should be a blowout. Pick: WMU 38, EMU 9
Evan Petzold is a sports reporting intern at the Detroit Free Press. Contact him at epetzold@freepress.com or follow him on Twitter @EvanPetzold.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Western Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan: Scouting report, prediction