When setting your weekly NFL DFS lineups, it can be just as helpful to have an idea of whom you DON’T want to include as whom you do. Every Friday we’ll highlight a few players that you might want to fade. When a player appears here, it mainly refers to fading him in cash games. If you play in a lot of large field, multi-entry tournaments, you might consider just being underweight on these players relative to the field rather than not using them at all.
Players I’m fading for Week 9 include:
Lamar Jackson, QB Baltimore at Indianapolis
This isn’t a game I’ve targeted heavily, though a Ravens stack could make for a low-owned tournament stack for sure. We just haven’t seen the awesome version of Jackson that dominated fantasy week after week in 2019. The fact that this game carries the lowest Vegas total, and features two teams that rank in the bottom five in terms of overall fantasy points allowed makes it an easy fade. As far as highlighting Jackson, the combination of his salary and the fact that no team has allowed fewer fantasy points to QBs makes it hard to trust a path to value for him this week.
Indianapolis Colts RBs, TEs
It’s not just Jackson that warrants a fade from this game, though. Yes, Baltimore’s defense is above average in a number of areas that are relevant, but it’s not just that. The Colts are proving to be a very deep team. Last week they ran with three running backs and three tight ends. Jordan Wilkins dominated the opportunities with 20 carries and one target, while Nyheim Hines made the most of his five targets, catching two for touchdowns. Both were fantasy-valuable, while Jonathan Taylor was the odd man out, with a few attempts that amounted to zilch. Each of Trey Burton, Jack Doyle, and Mo Alie-Cox saw 3-4 targets, and they finished with similar numbers (~7-10 fantasy points). The point is that at a position where it’s possible to roster a dominant stud like Dalvin Cook or Derrick Henry, or even a second-tier guy like T.J. Hockenson, it’s not worth saving salary on a three-way time share that will be impossible to predict.
Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Carolina at Kansas City
The Chiefs are allowing their opponents the third-fewest points per game so far this season. Their defense is talented, for sure, but a key reason lately has been time of possession. The Chiefs are averaging about four more minutes with the ball than their opponents over the last three games. With a 10.5-point spread, Vegas clearly thinks this is a trend that will continue. When Patrick Mahomes and company are moving the ball down the field over and over again, Bridgewater will be fuming on the sidelines. I know there’s an argument for “throw to catch up” game script, but I hate rostering the QB of a big underdog.
Editor's Note: Looking for an added edge? Dominate all season long with our DFS Toolkit. Use our Lineup Optimizer to come up with winning lineups for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo! Click here for more!
David Johnson, RB, Houston at Jacksonville
The Texans are coming off a BYE, in a great matchup and if you read the stacks article, you know I’m a big fan of Deshaun Watson this weekend. The rushing matchup is arguably better, and this is definitely a phase of the game that Houston has to improve upon if they want to start winning. There has been some talk of increasing Duke Johnson’s role, which makes me a little nervous about David Johnson. I think both Johnsons are decent tournament plays, but I’ll stick to the pass game options for double-ups or head-to-head contests.
Players I like, but who are expected to have high ownership in Week 9 include: Russell Wilson, Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, Keenan Allen, Allen Robinson, Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, Chase Edmonds, James Robinson, Pittsburgh D/ST. You might consider deviating away from this player pool and pivoting in large GPPs.