Week 9 Quarterbacks
QB Notes: The only bugaboo for Josh Allen so far? Turnovers. Although he has “just” eight of them, Pro Football Focus has charted his 13 “turnover worthy plays” as tied for second amongst quarterbacks. It matches an “eye test” that has shown Allen to be an elite player taking a few too many unnecessary chances. It only matters for fantasy in the context of, if more of these mistakes actually end up in the hands of the other team, it short-circuits drives and play volume. It shouldn't be a real issue. … Jalen Hurts finally experienced some overdue positive regression in the passing touchdown department last week, where his four scores represented 40 percent of his season total. Now the Texans' league-worst run defense might reheat Hurts' running game, where he has just 37 yards over the past two weeks. … Patrick Mahomes comes off bye to face a Titans defense that has surrendered 15 passing touchdowns while picking off only three passes. He will also have Kadarius Toney in tow, though the ex-Giant's snaps should be limited in his Chiefs debut.
With the Ravens furiously re-establishing on the ground, Lamar Jackson is bound to regress to his rushing touchdown mean, where he has not found the end zone since Week 3. … The QB15 and QB2 since DeAndre Hopkins' return, Kyler Murray has an inviting Week 9 matchup in a Seahawks defense that breaks on just enough of its bends. A week-leading 49.5 over/under also awaits. … The QB15 in four starts over the past five weeks, Justin Herbert has only six scores in five games since injuring his ribs. Mike Williams (ankle) is out and Keenan Allen (hamstring) is perpetually questionable. Working in Herbert's Week 9 favor is the fact that he should be far healthier coming off the Chargers' bye and will be facing a Falcons defense allowing the most passing yards in the league. … Even in a disastrous Week 8 for the Bengals' offense, Joe Burrow still got home in fourth quarter garbage time. Although Ja'Marr Chase's absence will continue to loom large against the Panthers' feisty defense, Burrow should get home as a QB1 in this depressed landscape.
Tua Tagovailoa finally fully reanimated in the Dolphins' Week 8 shootout with the Lions' inept defense. Although the Bears have weakened their defense by dealing Roquan Smith, they have been far from a party for opposing quarterbacks. They have more picks than touchdowns allowed and are surrendering the fifth fewest passing yards. … Kirk Cousins has added another weapon in T.J. Hockenson just in time to face the Commanders' struggling pass defense. The question is if he will have to deal with Chase Young (knee), who has resumed practicing. We would guess Cousins is spared for this low-totaled affair. … Just hear me out on Tom Brady… as Jared Smola points out, the GOATed one remains first in attempts, first in completions and first in passing yards ... but 17th in passing scores. Something has got to give in the form of positive regression. The Rams are no longer an imposing quarterback matchup. … Averaging just 206 yards over his past three starts — a soft portion of the schedule — Geno Smith is the QB20 by average points since Week 6. His weapons and floor keep him in the fringe QB1 mix with six teams on bye.
The QB5 by average points over the past three weeks, Justin Fields is encountering a Dolphins defense proving to be something of a shootout machine. He will also have new No. 1ish receiver Chase Claypool by his side. The Bears might finally be letting their 2021 first-rounder cook. … Aaron Rodgers *looked* better in Week 8, seeming to let it rip more than he has in recent weeks. Emphasis on “looked,” as he still produced only 203 yards and two scores. He might finally establish some momentum against a horrid Lions defense permitting the second most quarterback fantasy points. … Opposing Rodgers will be Jared Goff, who has averaged at least 8.7 yards per attempt in three of his past four starts. He will be missing T.J. Hockenson's 6-foot-5 frame up the seam. … We are starting to get into vibes-based ranking in maybe the worst week I have ever seen in the QB15-26 range. Coming off the worst start of his entire career, it's hard to say Derek Carr is keeping his floor intact. He has only three scores over his past four starts.
Andy Dalton seems to know what to do with Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave and has a plus matchup in the Ravens' still-struggling defense. NO/BAL's 48.0 total is the fourth highest of this underwhelming slate. … Trevor Lawrence is using his legs just enough to remain a mid-range QB2 despite his freefall in passing production. … The same is true of Marcus Mariota, who is consistently supplementing his inconsistent passing output with something in the neighborhood of 6/40 on the ground. … If Ryan Tannehill (ankle) plays, he should at least post volume as the Titans attempt to keep up with the Chiefs. … With Taylor Heinicke, you are betting on wild hair upside. … Actually allowed to throw beyond the line of scrimmage the past two weeks, P.J. Walker has struck up a profitable connection with D.J. Moore. It would be nice to see Walker use his legs a little more — he was usually in the 4/25 range in the XFL — but he will have some upside against a Bengals defense that just lost No. 1 CB Chidobe Awuzie for the season.