Week 9 CFB Player Props Primer

·4 min read

Noah Cain O/U 45.5 Rush Yards (FanDuel)

This isn’t the first time i’ve had Mr. “Nova” Cain in this column, as he has been a pedestrian running option if there ever was one. Penn State has been particularly fond of a committee running back approach, with Cain being shuttled down the depth chart in favor of Keyvonne Lee, Jon Lovett and Devy Ford in recent weeks.

Cain hasn’t cleared 45.5 yards in his last 5 games, with his more recent 9 OT marathon against Illinois garnering him 11 carries for 43 yards in a close game that featured a dozen extra plays than had it ended in regulation. With PSU likely to be chasing against Ohio State, there is little reason for a marginal receiving back like Cain to be given a heavy workload. With Lovett returning to health, and Lee looking like he has more juice between the tackles, I don’t see Cain clearing the 11 carry mark against an Ohio State front that ranks 15th in success rate, 11th in marginal efficiency and 10th in stuff rate.

I’m riding the Cain UNDER in PSU’s committee backfield.

Tre Siggers O/U 58.5 Rush Yards (Draft Kings)

Ulysses Bentley led the charge on the ground for SMU for the first four games before succumbing to injury against Navy on October 9 after just 2 carries. In his place the North Texas transfer Siggers has taken over the ball carrier duties and done a good job against a Tulane team that lost Michael Pratt and was basically helpless with SMU trouncing them 55-26, and a 41-17 blowout of South Florida where he rushed 20 times for 86 yards. Where he struggled was against Navy in a close 31-24 contest when he received 14 carries for 49 yards.

Houston has an excellent rush defense ranking 11th in success rate, 4th in Marginal Efficiency and 5th in Opportunity rate. Bentley has been practicing without restrictions this week and is expected to carry a full load in SMU’s biggest AAC game to date, it’s going to take an injury for Siggers to clear 58.5 rush yards in my opinion. I’m taking the UNDER 58.5 Yards.

Stetson Bennett O/U 205.5 Pass Yards (Draft Kings)

Get this Wager in ASAP, as it started at -215.5 and keeps dropping. JT Daniels has been taking reps all week and according to HC Kirby Smart is practicing “without limitations”. The volatile nature of this QB situation leads me to believe Bennett will have an extraordinarily short leash if he starts, and at the very least will be giving way to JT at some point in the game.

Given, he threw for 250 yards against Kentucky and 231 yards against Auburn. However with JT Daniels already likely to split snaps to some extent this week with Bennett, and given the fact Daniels threw for 299 or more yards in 3-of-4 2020 starts (his lone sub-200 yard game coming in a 45-16 destruction of South Carolina), i’m backing the UNDER on Bennett. Daniels is simply a better quarterback when healthy.

Henry Colombi O/U 230.5 Pass Yards (Draft Kings)

With the bloodletting in Lubbock this week, HC Matt Wells is out after just 2 ½ seasons at the helm of Texas Tech. In his place, former CFF Icon Sonny Cumbie takes the reins of the Texas Tech ship and will try to rescue their 2021 season. Henry Colombi is a former Utah State transfer who was most certainly “Wells’ guy”, following him when the Former HC left the Aggies for Texas Tech.

Colombi threw for 148 yards against Kansas State last week and 124 yards against Kansas the week prior, as the Red Raiders have embraced a more run-based approach. In the past three weeks, we’ve seen DonoVan Smith receive 8, 15 and 8 snaps working in behind Colombi. With nothing to lose and a new interim HC taking over, Cumbie has no allegiance to Colombi, who is basically a placeholder, and has every incentive to see what they have with a promising young talent like Smith. If they get down, I expect a quick hook for Colombi. I see three straight games where he goes UNDER 230.5 Pass yards.

Emory Jones O/U 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (Draft Kings)

Originally listed at 198.5 Passing Yards, Jones’ yardage total got pulled within a half hour of posting as gamblers across the spectrum unloaded their entire clips on that prop with AR-15 looming and likely to start. Despite the -200 juice on Jones’ Passing TDs, I cannot envision a scenario where he hits that mark considering that he’s playing Georgia’s Numero Uno defense and i’m fully expecting AR-15 taking the overwhelming majority of snaps.

Hammer the UNDER on any Emory Jones line you can find, as Fan Duel at time of publishing doesn’t have a single prop listed for the Cocktail Party. They’re clearly being cautious, as they should.