Week 9 CFB DFS Optimizer Breakdown

·9 min read

NBC Sports Edge Draft Kings Optimizer Lineup

QB - Tyler Van Dyke, Miami | $6,700 | 26 Points = 3.88 Points Per Thousand

RB - Mataeo Durant, Duke | $7,700 | 29.2 Points = 3.79 PPT

RB - Kenneth Walker, Michigan State | $6,700 | 29.1 Points = 4.34 PPT

WR - Jalon Calhoun, Duke | $6,300 | 16.9 Points = 2.68 PPT

WR - Ty Fryfogle, Indiana | $5,100 | 15.3 Points = 3.00 PPT

WR - Charlie Kolar, Iowa State | $4,100 | 10.9 Points = 2.66 PPT

Flex - Abram Smith, Baylor | $7,200 | 24.7 Points = 3.43 PPT

S-Flex - Tyler Goodson, Iowa | $6,200 | 20.3 Points = 3.27 PPT

Projected Total Points = 172.4

$50,000/$50,000

NBC Sports Edge FanDuel Optimizer Lineup

QB - Will Levis, Kentucky | $7,200 | 19.0 Points = 2.64 PPT

RB - Kenneth Walker, Michigan State | $9,000 | 25.8 Points = 2.78 PPT

RB - Tyler Goodson, Iowa | $6,600 | 19.0 Points = 2.88 PPT

WR - Josh Downs, UNC | $9,800 | 24.9 Points = 2.54 PPT

WR - Jahan Dotson, Penn State | $8,500 | 17.4 Points = 2.05 PPT

WR - Dontario Drummond, Ole Miss | $8,100 | 15.8 Points = 1.95 PPT

S-Flex - Sam Howell, UNC | $10,500 | 32 Points = 3.05 PPT

Projected Total Points = 153.1

$59,700/$60,000

Ty Fryfogle had been averaging 10 targets per game in the lead up to Indiana’s 54-7 evisceration at the hands of Ohio State last week. However when seasoned backup Jack Tuttle, as uninspiring as he is, was injured early on in the game, the Indiana passing attack cratered, attempting just 17 passes in the contest while rotating between two inexperienced quarterbacks that completed just four passes between them for 39 yards. Both Penix and Tuttle are “week-to-week” and very questionable for this week. This is a troubling development for Fryfogle who is not posting big gains at the same rate that he did last season, topping out with a season high 30-yard catch against Ohio State last week. With Maryland ranking 102nd rushing success rate, expect to see a heavy dose of Stephen Carr.....You have to hand it to Miami QB Tyler Van Dyke, as the redshirt freshman signal caller completed 25-of-33 passes for 325 yards, 9.8 yards per pass attempt and four touchdowns against a solid NC State defense that ranks 10th in passing marginal efficiency and allows just a 58% completion rate. While Pitt’s pass defense is also very good, ranking 13th nationally in passing success rate, it also is susceptible to big plays. With Pitt’s excellent offense likely to light up a depleted Miami defense that just lost starting safety Bubba Bolden, Expect Van Dyke to throw 35-40 passes in an attempt to keep pace…..Dontario Drummond has been incredibly consistent all year, posting at least 14.6 PPR points against every team except for Alabama. Though he was reported to be battling a foot injury the past few games, his eight catch, 93 yard showing last week against LSU helped to assuage any concerns about his health. With Jonathan Mingo out and Bralon Sanders on the mend, Drummond is an excellent high-floor option against Auburn this week…..Despite losing to the juggernaut that is Georgia, Will Levis performed as well as any quarterback has against the No. 1 ranked UGA defense, completing 31-of-41 passes for 205 yards and a 2-to-0 TD/INT ratio while earning a very respectable 82.1 overall offensive grade according to PFF. That impressive showing followed a five touchdown performance against LSU the week prior. With UK coming off a bye and facing a Mississippi State defense that ranks 118th in suppressing passing explosiveness, Levis is a fine Super-Flex play at his very reasonable $7,300 FanDuel price tag…..Despite playing on a Duke offense that has struggled mightily in recent weeks, Jalon Calhoun has been a very consistent contributor for the Blue Demons. The dependable slot receiver has secured at least five passes in each of his last six games, en route to catching 35-of-41 targets for a superb 85% catch rate, 477 yards and two touchdowns on the year. He has posted double-digit fantasy points in each of his last four games, including two 100-yard showings. With the Dukies taking on a Wake Forest defense that ranks 114 in passing efficiency and 102nd in success rate through the air, expect to see Calhoun make a few plays this Saturday…..Converted linebacker Abram Smith has been a revelation this year, rushing for at least 87 yards and a touchdown in six-of-seven games so far. Last week against a respectable BYU defense, Smith rushed 27 times for a season-high 188 yards and three touchdowns for a cool 40.2 fantasy points. He should have another big game against a Texas rush defense that ranks 92nd in success rate against.

Froton Adjusted Draft Kings Optimizer Lineup

QB - Anthony Richardson, Florida | $5,900 | 24.4 Points = 4.09 PPT

RB - Will Shipley, Clemson | $5,700 | 0 Points = 0 PPT

RB - Christian Beal-Smith, Wake Forest | $5,100 | 12.3 Points = 2.41 PPT

WR - Phillip Brooks, Kansas State | $5,200 | 7.7 Points = 1.48 PPT

WR - Jaquarii Roberson, Wake Forest | $7,600 | 17.4 Points = 2.29 PPT

WR - David Bell, Purdue | $7,100 | 16 Points = 2.25 PPT

Flex - Zamir White, Georgia | $6,000 | 14.6 Points = 2.43 PPT

S-Flex - Skylar Thompson, Kansas State | $7,300| 17.1 Points = 2.34 PPT

Projected Total Points = 121.6

49,900/$50,000

Froton Adjusted FanDuel Optimizer Lineup

QB - Gerry Bohanon, Baylor | $9,000 | 21 Points = 2.33 PPT

RB - Kyren Williams | $9,300 | 20.4 Points = 2.19 PPT

RB - Braelon Allen, Wisconsin | $6,000 | 8.9 Points = 1.48 PPT

WR - Josh Downs, UNC | $9,800 | 24.9 Points = 2.54 PPT

WR - David Bell, Purdue | $9,100 | 13.1 Points = 1.44 PPT

WR - Garrett Wilson, Ohio State | $8,700 | 12.5 Points = 1.44 PPT

S-Flex - Will Rogers, Mississippi State | $8,000 | 19.5 Points = 2.44 PPT

Projected Total Points = 120.3

$59,900/$60,000

Skylar Thompson was heavily rostered at his bargain basement $6,000 price tag last week, that’s simply too low against a brutal Texas Tech defense that is allowing 2.86 points per drive that ranks 112th nationally and is currently rated 100th in overall defense performance. While he threw for 296 yards, the Kansas State signal caller only threw one TD pass in the come-from-behind victory that ended up ousting Texas Tech HC Matt Wells. Thompson scored three touchdowns in each of the previous two games against Iowa State and Oklahoma, both objectively better defenses than TCU’s downright terrible unit that is ranked 126th in the nation at suppressing passing explosiveness and 89th in success rate. TCU’s inability to stop the pass is a big reason why i’m also rostering Thompson’s favorite target, Kansas State wideout Phillip “CM Punk” Brooks for $5,300 on Draft Kings…..Braelon Allen continues to produce at a breakneck pace, averaging 11.7 yards per carry for 140 yards and two touchdowns last week against Purdue, despite losing a fumble and getting briefly benched in favor of Chez Mellusi. While ball security is clearly an issue, he has put the ball on the ground four times in the last three games, Allen rushed for 108 yards and TD vs. Army, while carrying 18 times for 131 yards and a touchdown the previous week against Illinois as well. It’s entirely possible we see the highly touted freshman elevate himself to the bell cow role in short order, similar to what we saw from Jonathan Taylor in his first season…..I’m employing a wide receiver heavy approach on both platforms, paying up for a bounce back performance by David Bell who got shut down for 6 catches and 33 yards last week in a 30-13 blowout loss to Wisconsin. Bell cleared 18 fantasy points in four of the previous five games, with two of them going to 38 points or more…..Jaquarii Roberson has officially awoken from his early season slumber to post three straight games of at least 6 catches and 135 yards in the high octane Wake Forest passing attack. Last game he exploded for 8 recs, 157 yards and three touchdowns against Army and faces the always friendly Duke defense that ranks 125th in passing explosiveness and 85th in pass efficiency. He’s in line for a fourth straight huge game…..I just can’t help myself but take the plunge on Anthony Richardson at the bargain basement price of $5,900 against UGA. I cannot fathom HC Dan Mullen going with Emory Jones considering the Gators are 4-3 and rumblings out of Gainesville have the fanbase nonplussed with his recruiting ability now that the stars of 2020’s devastating offensive attack, Pitts/Toney/Trask/Grimes have departed and Florida’s defense has been getting torched on the ground. AR-15 is the only shot they have of upsetting the Dawgs this week…..Will Rogers was able to shake off a shoulder injury to light up Vandy for 384 yards and four touchdowns last week, not exactly a praise worthy accomplishment against the worst team in the SEC, but it was encouraging to see him uncork 55 passes nonetheless. It’s important to remember that Rogers has yet to throw for under 294 yards in any game this season and has thrown at least three touchdowns in 5-of-7 contests against some pretty good defenses like Texas A&M, LSU and NC State. I think he clears 300 yards once again and can rattle off 2+ touchdown passes against Kentucky defense that ranks 96th in passing success rate, 86th in marginal efficiency and 99th with a 64.5% completion rate against…..Will Shipley is a smoking deal in both formats considering he returned to health last week and will be the unquestioned bell cow this week against Florida State this week. With the Tigers ranking in the bottom-15 of literally every single advanced passing metric, they will lean heavily on their five-star freshman RB who had racked up five touchdowns in the three games prior to his injury.