Week 8 Heisman and CFB Title odds

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Heisman and national title odds courtesy of PointsBet.

Heisman odds

Player

Team

10/19

Last Week

Matt Corral

Mississippi

180

200

Bryce Young

Alabama

200

175

CJ Stroud

Ohio State

900

1000

Kenneth Walker

Michigan State

2000

1500

Desmond Ridder

Cincinnati

2000

1800

Kenny Pickett

Pittsburgh

2500

3300

Bijan Robinson

Texas

3300

2000

TreVeyon Henderson

Ohio State

4000

4000

Caleb Williams

Oklahoma

4000

N/A

Jayden Daniels

Arizona State

6000

8000

Brian Robinson

Alabama

6000

6600

Malik Willis

Liberty

8000

5000

Sean Clifford

Penn State

8000

8000

Blake Corum

Michigan

8000

8000

Cade McNamara

Michigan

9000

8000

JT Daniels

Georgia

10000

7500

Breece Hall

Iowa State

10000

10000

Sam Howell

North Carolina

12500

7500

Grayson McCall

Coastal Carolina

12500

10000

Jahan Dotson

Penn State

12500

12500

Isaiah Spiller

Texas A&M

12500

15000

Zamir White

Georgia

12500

20000

John Metchie

Alabama

12500

N/A

Tyler Goodson

Iowa

15000

10000

Casey Thompson

Texas

15000

10000

Chris Olave

Ohio State

15000

15000

Hendon Hooker

Tennessee

15000

15000

Garrett Wilson

Ohio State

15000

15000

Drake London

USC

15000

15000

Carson Strong

Nevada

15000

20000

Spencer Rattler

Oklahoma

20000

6600

DJ Uiagalelei

Clemson

20000

12500

Dorian Thompson-Robinson

UCLA

20000

15000

Jake Haener

Fresno State

20000

20000

Brock Purdy

Iowa State

20000

20000

Spencer Sanders

Oklahoma State

20000

20000

Kyren Williams

Notre Dame

20000

20000

KJ Jefferson

Arkansas

20000

20000

Levi Lewis

Louisiana

20000

N/A

  • Following Alabama’s upset loss to Texas A&M, I mentioned in this space that I was surprised that Mississippi QB Matt Corral hadn’t overtaken Alabama QB Bryce Young as the favorite. Turns out Corral (+180) only had to wait one week to re-assume favorite status from Young (+200). That happened after the Rebels’ wild win in Knoxville over the weekend. Incredibly, Corral rushed 30 times (!) for 195 yards (!!!) in that win over the Vols. He also threw for 231 yards and two touchdowns. Corral is up to 1,728 yards and a 14/1 TD/INT ratio with 450 yards rushing and eight TDs on the ground. But his stay at the top of the board may be very brief: HC Lane Kiffin said Corral was "not in good shape" after the Tennessee game and is doubtful to play against LSU this weekend. Corral’s candidacy is going to hinge on counting stats. It’ll really hurt his candidacy if he misses any time. You can’t bet on him at this price without knowing his status for LSU.

  • Young’s Crimson Tide are nearly four-TD favorites against Tennessee this weekend. If Corral is ruled out on Saturday, it’s a shoe-in that Young will re-emerge as favorite next week. If you like Young for the award, buying a 2-to-1 ticket right now isn’t a bad idea. It's entirely possible that he won't have a lower price the rest of the regular season.

  • By far our biggest riser this week is Oklahoma QB Caleb Williams. Williams is listed at 40-to-1 after not being on the board last week. Williams’ stats in limited time -- roughly seven total quarters played -- are stupid. He’s posted 507 passing yards, 154 rushing yards and eight total touchdowns. Williams is also going to put up enormous numbers the next two weeks against Kansas and Texas Tech. I’m hearing a lot of buzz about Williams right now. But I find it hard to believe that voters are going to hand the award to a true freshman who didn’t start playing until the second quarter of Game 6. At the end of the year, his numbers will pale in comparison to, for instance, Corral and Young's. And it’s going to be hard to structure an argument voting for Williams around the idea of “most valuable” when the team went 6-0 in Spencer Rattler’s starts (even conceding that Williams may have single-handedly flipped the Texas game). Williams’ odds are only going to keep getting slashed, so feel free to wet your beak at 40-to-1 if you feel inclined. I’m just struggling to picture him actually winning the award.

  • Two other risers who saw their odds slashed by one-third: Pitt QB Kenny Pickett and Arizona State QB Jayden Daniels. Daniels’ rise confuses me: His Sun Devils lost to Utah on Saturday, he isn’t a good thrower, and his odds to win the award are nearly non-existent. Pickett, however, remains intriguing. Last week, I wrote: “​​If Pitt wins its next three games against Virginia Tech, Clemson and Miami, Pickett very well may surge to the top-three of the board.” Step 1 is complete after Pickett threw for 203 yards and two TD in a 28-7 win over Virginia Tech last weekend. The biggest test of Pickett’s regular season is on deck: The Panthers are currently three-point favorites against Clemson. If Pitt wins and Pickett plays well, I believe he’ll beat my timeline by a week and be top-three on PointsBets’ board next week. One of the few players worth looking into for a potential investment this week if you missed out on his +3300 price last week.

  • Our biggest fallers this week from the top-25 of the board: Michigan State RB Kenneth Walker, Liberty QB Malik Willis, UNC QB Sam Howell, Iowa RB Tyler Goodson and Texas QB Casey Thompson. Though Sparty remained undefeated by beating Indiana, Walker was held under 80 total yards for only the second time this year. Willis and Goodson were on the wrong-end of two of the weekend’s biggest upsets. Thompson imploded in an upset loss to Okie State. And Howell only managed 154 passing yards as his Tar Heels snuck by a Miami team that has a fork sticking out of its back 45-42.

National title odds

Team

10/19

Last week

Georgia

125

130

Alabama

225

200

Ohio State

800

900

Oklahoma

1200

1500

Cincinnati

2500

2800

Michigan

4000

4000

Iowa

5000

2000

Oregon

6000

5000

Michigan State

6000

6000

Oklahoma State

6600

10000

Penn State

8000

8000

Pittsburgh

8000

20000

Notre Dame

9000

7500

Mississippi

10000

7000

Clemson

10000

10000

Texas A&M

10000

10000

Utah

10000

15000

Wake Forest

10000

15000

Texas

20000

10000

Arizona State

20000

10000

NC State

20000

15000

Baylor

20000

20000

UCLA

20000

25000

Florida

25000

10000

Kentucky

25000

12500

Iowa State

25000

25000

BYU

25000

25000

  • PointsBet only lists five teams with title odds lower than 40-to-1: Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, Oklahoma and Cincinnati. The Michigan Wolverines sit right behind that frontrunner group at +4000. Georgia is off this week, and the other six have breezy matchups. Don’t expect much change at the top of the board in the next seven days. That’s going to have to wait until next weekend, when, for instance, undefeated Michigan plays undefeated Michigan State.

  • The top-seven of the board remained the same this week, with one minor shuffle: Iowa dropped from No. 5 on the board to No. 7 after getting upset by Purdue. Cincy and Michigan each climbed one spot on the board, while the Hawkeyes fell from 20-to-1 to 50-to-1. The Hawkeyes aren’t dead yet. In fact, they control much of their own destiny. If Iowa wins out, it will mean they have won the Big 10 title, which means they’ll pass Ohio State and Michigan in the pecking order. At that point, the Hawkeyes would be rooting for a loss from Alabama or Cincinnati -- each team is eliminated from the field the next time they go down. Remember: The Crimson Tide still have to play No. 1 Georgia in the SEC title game even if they win out in the regular season.

  • Two risers lower on the board worth keeping an eye on: Oklahoma State and Pittsburgh. Similar with their quarterback Pickett on the Heisman board, Pitt’s odds are going to get slashed if they can hold serve and beat Clemson as three-point favorites this weekend. Okie State, meanwhile, has two enormous games left: at Iowa State and vs. Oklahoma. The Pokes get the Cyclones in Ames on Saturday. Right now, Oklahoma State is considered a playoff darkhorse. If they beat the Cyclones, they’ll become a legitimate contender. If you’re looking for a longshot to invest in this week, I prefer Oklahoma State to Pitt. Even if Pitt wins out, they still may not make the field at 12-1 with a loss to WMU. But if the Pokes win out, they’re an undefeated P5 lock. Easier said than done: OSU would presumably need to beat Oklahoma twice to crash the field.

Games of the Week

Clemson at No. 23 Pitt

No. 10 Oregon at UCLA

No. 8 Oklahoma State at Iowa State

USC at No. 13 Notre Dame

Tennessee at No. 2 Alabama

ATL's CFP Spreads

New feature this week. My system's adjusted spreads for a gaggle of hypothetical CFP matchups. In the tables below, the line is from the perspective of the first team listed -- i.e. Georgia -3 vs. Alabama, Alabama -1.5 vs. Ohio State, etc.

Georgia

-3.0

Alabama

Georgia

-5.0

Ohio State

Georgia

-9.0

Oklahoma

Georgia

-11.5

Cincinnati

Georgia

-12.5

Michigan

Georgia

-16.5

Iowa

Georgia

-19.0

Oregon

Georgia

-17.5

Michigan State

Georgia

-19.5

Oklahoma State

Alabama

3.0

Georgia

Alabama

-1.5

Ohio State

Alabama

-6.0

Oklahoma

Alabama

-9.0

Cincinnati

Alabama

-9.5

Michigan

Alabama

-13.5

Iowa

Alabama

-16.0

Oregon

Alabama

-14.5

Michigan State

Alabama

-16.5

Oklahoma State

Ohio State

5.0

Georgia

Ohio State

1.5

Alabama

Ohio State

-4.5

Oklahoma

Ohio State

-7.0

Cincinnati

Ohio State

-7.5

Michigan

Ohio State

-12.0

Iowa

Ohio State

-14.5

Oregon

Ohio State

-13.0

Michigan State

Ohio State

-15.0

Oklahoma State

Oklahoma

9.0

Georgia

Oklahoma

6.0

Alabama

Oklahoma

4.5

Ohio State

Oklahoma

-2.5

Cincinnati

Oklahoma

-3.5

Michigan

Oklahoma

-7.5

Iowa

Oklahoma

-10.0

Oregon

Oklahoma

-8.5

Michigan State

Oklahoma

-10.5

Oklahoma State

Cincinnati

11.5

Georgia

Cincinnati

9.0

Alabama

Cincinnati

7.0

Ohio State

Cincinnati

2.5

Oklahoma

Cincinnati

-1.0

Michigan

Cincinnati

-5.0

Iowa

Cincinnati

-7.5

Oregon

Cincinnati

-6.0

Michigan State

Cincinnati

-8.0

Oklahoma State

Michigan

12.5

Georgia

Michigan

9.5

Alabama

Michigan

7.5

Ohio State

Michigan

3.5

Oklahoma

Michigan

1.0

Cincinnati

Michigan

-4.0

Iowa

Michigan

-6.5

Oregon

Michigan

-5.5

Michigan State

Michigan

-7.0

Oklahoma State

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