Week 8 Quarterbacks
QB Notes: Josh Allen is averaging 5.6 more fantasy points per game than any other quarterback. The Packers are coughing up the third most QB fantasy points. … Jalen Hurts comes off bye with only six passing scores in six starts. Thankfully, his six rushing touchdowns are tied for second. … Up to QB3 status by average points, Joe Burrow is fresh off throwing for the 34th most yards in NFL history (481). The Bengals have finally realized they have a passing-game death star and that they need to unleash it. They have led the league in neutral pass rate each of the past two weeks. Perhaps the only Week 8 concern for Burrow's fantasy managers is how bad Cleveland's defense is on the ground. … Whereas the Bengals are ramping up, the Ravens seem to be powering down. After being amongst the league leaders in pass rate over expectation for the season's first month, they have been bringing up the rear the past few weeks. The Ravens' PROE was a stunning -19 percent for Gus Edwards' Week 7 return. That was tied with the Falcons for the lowest in the league. Lamar Jackson attempted an Arthur Smith-ian 16 throws. Hopefully this isn't a new trend. Thankfully Jackson still has his legs to buttress his floor and keep his ceiling intact.
We're already to the part of the board where there are no sure things. Kyler Murray remains a decent bet because he continues to run and appeared much more in the zone as a passer for the Week 7 return of DeAndre Hopkins. AZ/MIN projects as one of Week 8's best scoring environments and no defense is allowing more yards per pass attempt than Minnesota (8.4). … Tua Tagovailoa has finished four games. He has produced more than one score in one of them. He remains a mid-range QB1 for reasons both positive and negative. In the positive column are his weapons and Week 8 matchup against the Lions' cellar-dwelling defense. In the negative column … he is one of the only “down ballot” quarterbacks showing any signs of life at all. … I understand if you find my Tom Brady ranking insane. I just have to believe a quarterback who has attempted 40-plus passes in five straight starts and is eighth in passing yards per (277.4) is bound for a major increase in his flukily-low 2.7 touchdown percentage. None of Brady's advanced metrics have fallen off a cliff. Sooner or later, his receivers are going to stop dropping 75-yard touchdowns. Why not against the Ravens, who are in the argument for worst pass defense in the league.
Kirk Cousins has established a decent floor without spiking any weeks. With both teams well rested, maybe that will finally change for this week's 49-totaled showdown with the Cardinals. … After averaging 40 attempts during Vegas' 3-0 start, Derek Carr has seen that number fall to 30 since the Raiders pledged their mortal soul to Josh Jacobs three games ago. He maintains some Week 8 benefit of the doubt because — have you seen who is behind him? — and the bookmakers are understandably expecting a high-scoring meetup with the all-over-the-map Saints. Carr has also provided fewer than 240 yards only once, which is not nothing this year. … Dak Prescott faced one of the worst defenses in the league for his Week 7 return and produced one score on 25 attempts in a 24-6 victory over Detroit. Even with their franchise player back, the Cowboys remain conservative. Their pass rate over expectation did at least rise from six straight negative numbers to … zero percent. Limiting Prescott's Week 8 upside is a low total (42.5), the Cowboys being nearly 10-point home favorites (aka run the ball) and a Bears defense that has more interceptions than passing scores allowed.
Daniel Jones is a QB1 now? I guess? He has three of the top-six rushing efforts of his entire career over the past month. He finally has a receiver with a pulse in Wan'Dale Robinson. It's a flimsy formula, but it is a formula. That is more than a lot of other quarterbacks can say right now. It helps that the Seahawks are an excellent matchup, despite what Justin Herbert might have you believe. … Beloved by computers everywhere, Jimmy Garoppolo has managed 250/2 in three straight starts. Rams/49ers is always in danger of devolving into a backyard brawl, but Garoppolo's weapons provide that 250/2 baseline with plausible ceiling. … Somewhat coming back down to earth as the QB10 and QB21 over the past two weeks, Geno Smith will probably be missing DK Metcalf (knee) against the Giants. … Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford enter Week 8 as the QB22 and QB25, respectively, by average fantasy points. Neither player has anything that would lead you to believe their fortunes will soon be changing. Rodgers gets the Week 8 rankings advantage because he will be in point-chase mode as an embarrassing 11.5-point road 'dog against the Bills. Stafford is facing a 49ers defense that picked him off five times in three 2021 matchups.
As much as I want to believe in Justin Fields — who is the QB5 by average points over the past three weeks and finished as the QB5 in Bill Belichick's house — the Cowboys are the wrong place for a fantasy heat check. Dallas has five more sacks than any other team and is allowing just 6.2 yards per attempt and 185 passing yards per game. If Fields gets home here, it will be via his legs, which admittedly make him worth betting on in the top 18. … Although it makes me feel foolish, I'll give Jared Goff the Week 8 rankings edge on Fields. After two awful matchups sandwiched the Lions' Week 6 bye, Miami offers something of a respite. That is not to say Miami has a bad defense. The 51.5 total is of assistance. … The Saints had to learn the hard way: Andy Dalton only throws slightly fewer interceptions than Jameis Winston. Winston provides many more chunk plays. Either way, New Orleans claims it is sticking with Dalton as its starter. … The Colts are clearly hoping Sam Ehlinger provides a dual-threat, wild hair spark. Pants-on-fire play was one of Ehlinger's calling cards at Texas. He is also a better fit behind an offensive line Matt Ryan made look terrible. He is worth a superflex Hail Mary.