Week 7 represents possible turning point in 49ers QB situation
Jimmy Garoppolo needs a get-right game. The Week 7 stars are aligning to provide him an opportunity to have the big performance he and the 49ers offense desperately need. San Francisco hosts the Colts and their abysmal pass defense Sunday night at Levi’s Stadium. The 49ers are coming off a bye, and Garoppolo has had a chance to fully recover from a calf injury that kept him out for Week 5. A failure to take advantage of Sunday’s favorable matchup could lead to a shakeup in the 49ers’ quarterback room.
Garoppolo is the 49ers’ starting quarterback as long as he gives the 49ers the best chance to win. That’s been the M.O. for head coach Kyle Shanahan since before training camp started, and he’s never deviated from that message.
Sunday will be the first real test of whether Garoppolo does give San Francisco the best chance to win, because if the 49ers offense can’t move the ball against the Colts, it’s hard to come up with a team they will find yards against.
Indianapolis’ defense is 20th in passing yards allowed, 31st in passing touchdowns, 27th in net passing yards per attempt, 20th in third-down conversion rate and 21st in yards per play. Pro Football Focus has them No. 28 in coverage and their pass rush is No. 23. Football Outsiders’ DVOA has their pass defense ranked 29th in the league.
On top of a weak pass defense, their run defense is one of the league’s best. They’re No. 1 in DVOA and No. 3 per PFF. Garoppolo is going to need to shoulder most of the load for the 49ers’ offense, especially if their run game isn’t working.
It’s not even going to come down to whether San Francisco wins. It’s about their offensive ceiling. It’s hard to imagine scenarios where they do get standout performances on that side of the ball if Sunday doesn’t yield good production. That would further call into question the notion that Garoppolo gives the 49ers the best chance to win games.
Their offense hasn’t just been going through some hiccups, it’s been downright bad given the standard set since Shanahan took over. In the 10 quarters between Week 2 and the first half of Week 4, San Francisco’s offense was averaging a paltry 4.8 yards per play. Last year they were at 5.7 with Nick Mullens and CJ Beathard combining to start more than half the games. In 2019 the Garoppolo-led offense averaged 6.0 yards per play. They were even at 5.8 in a disastrous 2018 campaign.
Garoppolo and the 49ers don’t need to win to stabilize the quarterback situation, but they have to move the football consistently. Seven-point first halves and late-game flurries in an effort to mount a big comeback aren’t sustainable for winning and making a postseason push – the two reasons Garoppolo is starting.
If Sunday night is another slow night for the 49ers’ offense and they lose, they’ll be sitting at 2-4 with four consecutive losses and facing the prospect of being out of the playoff picture before the halfway point. Continuing with Garoppolo at that point would run counter to the entire premise that the 49ers are going with the quarterback that gives them the best chance to win. It would also beg the question of why San Francisco is further delaying Trey Lance’s development by sitting him when Shanahan himself said playing is the best way for a player to improve.
On the other side of that coin is a chance for Garoppolo to reassert himself as a player who can guide the 49ers to wins and a chance to make a playoff run. He’s a better quarterback than he’s shown so far in 2021, and the team clearly thinks he can take a step forward and start racking up victories. This is a huge opportunity for Garoppolo to put up a performance like his super-efficient Week 1 outing in Detroit when he put up 314 yards and completed 17 of his 25 throws.
If he repeats his Week 1 production, the starting job is safely his for the foreseeable future. If the offense continues to look disjointed and stagnant against a Colts defense that can be thrown on, it’ll be harder than ever to keep justifying starting Garoppolo over the player who’s supposed to be the future franchise quarterback.
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6 most important 49ers in Week 7 matchup vs. Colts
