Week 6 sharp bets: Are bettors buying or selling the Chiefs?

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Yahoo! is partnering with The Action Network during the football season to bring you expert sports betting information and analysis. Analysis provided by Mark Gallant.

The Kansas City Chiefs lost as 11-point favorites to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 5, one of the most surprising upsets of the NFL season so far.

With this loss fresh in the minds of most bettors, are sharps buying Kansas City after its first loss of the season? Or do the pros expect the Chiefs to underperform again on Sunday against the Houston Texans?

Let’s look at Week 6’s sharpest NFL bets.

Odds as of Friday at 3 p.m. ET. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs

We have ourselves a big game here, folks! Two promising young quarterbacks — well, I think Patrick Mahomes is past the point of “promising” considering he’s already won an MVP — will drive the majority of the attention on the 1 p.m. ET slate.

The Chiefs are reeling from an uncharacteristic loss vs. the Colts in which they scored just 13 points. They were -7.5 on last week’s lookahead line, but reopened at -7 on Monday morning. Since then, the big bucks have been flowing in like the salmon of Capistrano on the Texans.

By Monday afternoon, Houston was already down to +5 behind more than 80 percent of the early cash. On Thursday, it made the jump to +4. Despite getting just 35 percent of the tickets, the Texans are still commanding more than 60 percent of the money.

Four is not as key of a number as three, but it is important when it comes to betting the NFL. Now that the Chiefs are down to -4, I wouldn’t be surprised if there was some late buyback.

The total is also seeing a clear Pros-vs.-Joes split, as more than 75 percent of the bets expect these two potent offenses to gun it out. The sharps have been pounding the under, though.

Six reverse line moves have been triggered on the under thus far, which have kept this line from ballooning up closer to 60. In fact, the line has fallen from its high-water mark of 56 to 55.

Sharp Angle: Texans (moved from +7 to +4), Under (moved from 56 to 55)

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) looks to the sideline during the loss to the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. (AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) looks to the sideline during the loss to the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. (AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)

Seattle Seahawks vs. Cleveland Browns

Everybody is wondering whether we’ll see the Browns team that can score 40 points against the Ravens or the Browns team that managed just a field goal against the Niners. I reckon we see something in between, but don’t come yelling at me when the Seahawks win, 28-2.

Those who took a chance on Seattle before Week 5’s “Monday Night Football” game are going to lock in some serious closing line value, as Seattle has gone from the lookahead of +2.5 to -1.5.

The over/under has seen some serious sharp action since the line reopened on Tuesday morning as well.

After opening at 47, this total went up to 48 and even 48.5 at some books by Tuesday afternoon. Since then, sharps have been hitting the under. Three Sports Insights Bet Signals on the under are an indication that pros have hit this in multiple waves.

Our betting percentages also reveal that the public is split 50/50 on this total, but more than 80 percent of the money is on the under.

As a result, the line has dropped below the opener and has settled in at 46.

Sharp Angle: Under (moved from 48.5 to 46)

New Orleans Saints vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

In a battle of the backups, Gardner Minshew will look to bounce back from a loss against Kyle Allen, yet another backup. I am honestly very intrigued by this line and the betting activity surrounding it. Let’s take a look …

This is the type of game that proves records aren’t everything when it comes to the spread, especially early in the season. Why? Because the 2-3 Jaguars are favored over the 4-1 Saints.

It didn’t begin that way though, as the Jags opened at a pick’em and moved to +2 in the early going. The line has since been the apple of sharps’ eyes.

If you thought the six bet signals on the HOU-KC under was a lot, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet. The Jags have commanded 10 bet signals to the Saints’ zero, as sharps have hit them at +2, +1, +0.5, 0 and -1.

Much like Houston, the Jaguars have a big bets/dollars discrepancy working in their favor too — 33 percent of bets compared to 66 percent of the money. With all this said, it’s not surprising that the Jaguars are now favored despite a losing record.

Sharp Angle: Jaguars (moved from +2 to -1)

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