Week 6 CFB DFS Optimizer Lineup Analysis

·9 min read



NBC Sports Edge Draft Kings Optimizer Lineup

QB - Taulia Tagovailoa, Maryland | $6,000 | 22.9 Points = 3.82 Points Per Thousand

RB - Kenneth Walker III, Michigan State | $8,100 | 29.4 Points = 3.63 PPT

RB - Tyler Allgeier, BYU | $7,800 | 26.5 Points = 3.40 PPT

WR - Ra’Shaun Henry | $3,300 | 10.7 Points = 3.24 PPT

WR - Parker Washington, Penn State | $5,000 | 13.8 Points = 2.76 PPT

WR - Justin Marshall, Louisville | $3,400 | 7.0 Points = 2.06 PPT

Flex - Sean Tucker, Syracuse | $7,200 | 25.3 Points = 3.51 PPT

S-Flex - Brennan Armstrong, UVA | $9,200 | 31.2 Points = 3.39 PPT

Projected Total Points = 166.8

$50,000/$50,000

NBC Sports Edge FanDuel Optimizer Lineup

QB - Sam Howell, UNC | $11,200 | 30.9 Points = 2.76 PPT

RB - Tyler Allgeier, BYU | $9,500 | 22.8 Points = 2.40 PPT

RB - Isaiah Spiller, Texas A&M | $6,400 | 16.9 Points = 2.64 PPT

WR - Josh Downs, UNC | $10,000 | 24.5 Points = 3.22 PPT

WR - Billy Kemp, UVA | $7,700 | 16.6 Points = 2.16 PPT

WR - Jahan Dotson, Penn State | $8,700 | 13.9 Points = 1.99 PPT

S-Flex - Braxton Burmeister, VT | $6,400 | 21.3 Points = 3.33 PPT

Projected Total Points = 146.9

$59,900/$60,000

Draft Kings doesn’t give us the luxury that FanDuel does by allowing us to use Sam Howell and Josh Downs against a flaccid Florida State defense that is allowing 2.58 points per drive (92nd) and 8.1 yards per pass (93rd). As such, The Optimizer is embracing Brennan Armstrong against a Louisville team that is 26th in pace on offense and ranks 90th or worst in plays per game allowed, yards per drive and points per drive allowed. For their part UVA ranks 13th in pace and 9th in plays per drive, so this matchup is shaping up to be a track meet…..These favorable metrics also dovetail with the low-priced selection of Ra’Shaun Henry who is a rare steal this late in the season at $3,300 considering he received 19 total targets in the two weeks preceding their game last Thursday against Miami. His price is a drastic overreaction to last week’s one catch fluke performance. Fellow UVA wideout Billy Kemp is as high floor a player in PPR formats as it gets, catching 30-of-38 passes and scoring 80.5 points over his last four games. The UVA passing stack could be a potent option for the DK main slate….. The same goes for Justin Marshall, who at $3,400 is a nice dart throw considering he has logged 111 snaps and reeled in 8-of-11 passes over his last two games and no longer has Braden Smith to contend with for targets…..Boise State ranks among the nation’s worst defenses in Iso/PPP (104), Marginal explosiveness (94) and Explosive play rate (100). As if that weren’t bad enough, BSU checks in at 112th in suppressing explosive plays on the ground and is shaping up to be cannon fodder for Allgeier who is coming off a 218 yard, three touchdown annihilation of Utah State. He is averaging 20 carries per game behind an excellent offensive line that is allowing him to gain an average of 2.8 yards before contact. He is a worthy play on both the FanDuel and Draft Kings slates.....I feel like I write about Sean Tucker every week, but the engine of the Syracuse offense justifies his price tag with consistent week-in, week-out production, as he has posted 100+ yards or more in four-of-five games this season. Even against a “bend but don’t break” defense of Wake Forest that ranks 107th in success rate, but allows just 1.51 points per drive (25th), he is still a solid lineup addition at $7,200…..Jahan Dotson’s $8,700 price tag is steep considering he is up against an Iowa pass defense that ranks 10th in yards per pass allowed and has been a certifiable nightmare to opposing passing attacks. However OC Mike Yurcich peppers him with targets against quality competition, with Dotson receiving 33 looks of which he caught 23 in three contests against Power Five opponents, catching at least one touchdown in all of them…..While Notre Dame’s defense has generally been pretty good, their achilles heel has been the big play, as the Irish rank 111th in IsoPPP and 108th in marginal explosiveness. While Virginia Tech ranks 89th in pace and tends to march down the field as opposed to rip the top off of defenses, Braxton Burmeister is a pretty tidy little value at $6,400 considering the inflated nature of FanDuel’s salary structure compared to Draft Kings. He is a perfectly acceptable dice-roll as the 29th priced quarterback on the FD main slate.

Froton Adjusted Draft Kings Optimizer Lineup

QB - Brennan Armstrong, UVA | $9,200 | 35 Points = 3.39 PPT

RB - Wayne Taulapapa, UVA | $4,900 | 23.1 Points = 2.45 PPT

RB - Tyler Allgeier, BYU | $7,800 | 20.3 Points = 3.40 PPT

WR - Ra’Shaun Henry, UVA | $3,300 | 12 Points = 10.7 PPT

WR - Garrett Wilson, Ohio State | $6,800 | 23.5 Points = 2.16 PPT

WR - Jeshaun Jones, Maryland | $3,500 | 9.5 Points = 8.2 PPT

Flex - TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio State | $7,500 | 7.1 Points = 2.09 PPT

S-Flex - Hank Bachmeier, Boise State | $7,000 | 19.5 Points = 2.86 PPT

Projected Total Points = 139.0

$50,000/$50,000

Froton Adjusted FanDuel Optimizer Lineup

QB - Sam Howell, UNC | $11,200 | 30.9 Points = 2.76 PPT

RB - Tyler Goodson, Iowa | $7,900 | 19.4 Points = 2.46 PPT

RB - Kennedy Brooks, Oklahoma | $7,100 | 10.4 Points = 1.46 PPT

WR - Josh Downs, UNC | $10,000 | 24.5 Points = 2.45 PPT

WR - Billy Kemp, UVA | $7,700 | 16.6 Points = 2.16 PPT

WR - Jeshaun Jones, Maryland | $5,800 | 6.7 Points = 1.16 PPT

S-Flex - Bryce Young, Alabama | $10,000 | 25.3 Points = 2.53 PPT

Projected Total Points = 133.8

$60,000/$60,000

In addition to the reasonably priced Cavaliers already mentioned earlier, RB Wayne Taulapapa battled injuries earlier in the year before returning to health last week with a strong 11 carries for 62 yards, 5.6 YPC and a touchdown against Miami. What Virginia does well on the ground, fits Taulapapa’s skillset like a glove, as the senior tailback is the preferred goal line option for a UVA offense that sports an 80% power run success rate, good for 26th nationally. I expect UVA to rip off plenty of plays with Taulapapa cashing in on his gold zone scoring opportunities more often than not. He’s a smoking deal at $4,900 on the DK list which ranks 23rd in terms of cost…..Maryland got bodied by a dominant Iowa defense last week that might be the best in the nation, so none of their offensive marks should be viewed as relevant for predicting future fantasy output. In Jeshaun Jones’ case, he caught 10-of-13 targets for 150 yards in his two previous contests, with 85 of those yards coming after the catch thanks to his incredible elusiveness and burst. His snap counts have steadily risen as the season progressed and that trend is bound to continue now that he is the clear favorite to take over for Dontay Demus who is out for the season following a gruesome knee injury sustained last week. I have him locked into my lineups in both formats, with his $3,500 DK price tag being so low it’s almost laughable…..Tyler Goodson is firmly established as the Iowa bell cow who is a mortal lock for 20+ totes no matter who the opponent is. They likely won’t have much of a choice against Penn State, as the Hawkeyes rank a ghastly 117th in passing success rate against far inferior opponents, with the Nittany Lions defense ranking 4th in yards per pass (5.1) and third in points per drive (.90). Expect a hard-hitting slobberknocker with Goodson in line for a heavy workload where points will be at a premium…..Boise State’s rushing attack is in a word - pathetic. George Holani doesn’t look recovered from offseason knee surgery, accruing just 124 yards on 3.6 YPC through four games. As a team the Broncos are averaging just 78 yards per game and rank 108th or lower in every major rushing metric according to SP+. It’s an unconscionable showing from the once proud Boise State Broncos running back room who previously rostered former CFF RB legends like Jay Ajayi, Brock Forsey and Ian Johnson. Accordingly, the Broncos’ fortunes rest solely on the arm of QB Hank Bachmeier, who was pressed into throwing 49 times for 387 yards and four touchdowns last week in a 41-31 loss to Nevada last Saturday. With Boise likely to be trailing against BYU this week, expect to see Bachmeier uncork plenty of throws if BSU expects to even remotely keep pace with the Cougars…..Bryce Young cemented his status as the Heisman front runner with his blistering performance against Ole Miss last week. Even though Young was clearly in control of the game, RB Brian Robinson was called upon to sledgehammer his way in for four short-yardage touchdowns. It was the first game this season that Young didn’t throw at least three touchdown passes, as the blue-chip QB prospect sports a pristine 89.7 passing grade according to PFF College. With Alabama taking on a Texas A&M team that just got torched for 408 yards and three touchdowns by Will Rogers in a 26-22 loss to Mississippi State, the blueprint has been laid for Alabama to roll up another 30+ point showing against the punchless Aggie offense that won’t be able to keep the vaunted Crimson Tide offense off the field with Zach Calzada at the helm. Expect to see Young continue to bolster his Heisman credentials this Saturday.