Week 5 Heisman and CFB Title odds

·8 min read



Heisman and national title odds courtesy of PointsBet.

National title odds

Team

9/28

Last week

Alabama

180

175

Georgia

180

325

Ohio State

1200

1100

Oregon

1800

2500

Oklahoma

2000

900

Penn State

3000

4000

Notre Dame

3300

5000

Cincinnati

4000

6600

Iowa

4000

4000

Ole Miss

4000

10000

Florida

6000

5000

Michigan

6000

6600

Arkansas

6000

N/A

Texas

6600

12500

Clemson

7000

1100

Michigan State

10000

15000

LSU

10000

15000

UCLA

12500

15000

Texas A&M

15000

3300

USC

15000

12500

North Carolina

15000

12500

Arizona State

20000

N/A

BYU

20000

N/A

Oklahoma State

20000

N/A

Iowa State

25000

8000

Wisconsin

25000

12500

Miami

25000

N/A

Auburn

25000

12500

Utah

25000

15000

Washington

25000

N/A

Auburn

25000

N/A

Baylor

25000

N/A

Kentucky

25000

N/A

NC State

25000

N/A

Utah

25000

N/A

West Virginia

25000

N/A

  • Alabama’s odds remained nearly static following a 63-14 blowout of Southern Miss (+175 to +180). The bigger revelation was Georgia pulling into co-favorite status (+325 to +180). The Bulldogs were yanking starters in the second quarter of last Saturday’s 62-0 blowout of Vanderbilt in preparation for a huge matchup this weekend against Arkansas. Arkansas, which was not listed among the top-35 teams on the board last week, surged to tied for No. 11 after a 20-10 upset win over Texas A&M. Another team surging up the board: Ole Miss. Despite not playing last week, the Rebels jumped from 100-to-1 to 40-to-1. If the Rebels upset Alabama this weekend, those odds are going to get slashed again by more than double. Ole Miss is 14.5-point underdogs in Tuscaloosa (ATL: Alabama -15.9). Arkansas is 18.5-point underdogs at Georgia (ATL: UGA -15.7).

  • Oregon (+1,800) is listed No. 4 on the natty board. The Ducks haven’t really played anyone since upsetting Ohio State. Last week, Oregon scored 17 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to pull away from Arizona 41-19.

  • Oklahoma held on to beat West Virginia last weekend, but the Sooners’ title odds took another hit following another sluggish performance. A preseason frontrunner, Oklahoma is now 20-to-1 to win the title. Still undefeated, I think the Sooners are a play at this price. Especially with Iowa State, presumed to be OU's biggest competition in the Big 12, down this fall.

  • Fascinating couple weeks of football coming for the Big 10. Iowa, whose odds remained static at +4,000 after beating Colorado State 24-14, will put their undefeated record on the line against two cross-division undefeated B1G programs over the next two weeks, Maryland and Penn State (+3,000). First up, the Terps. Iowa travel to College Park on Friday night as 4-point favorites. Maryland is listed at 400-to-1 to win the title. The 4-0 Terps only beat their two Power 5 opponents, West Virginia and Illinois, by a combined nine points.

  • Cincinnati hopped up to 40-to-1 from 66-to-1 despite being off last week. The bye is key, because it came in advance of this week’s monumental clash with Notre Dame and former defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman. The Bearcats enter as three-point underdogs -- and will not be an underdog again during the regular season. If Cincinnati wins, and wins out, they’re going to have the best argument for playoff inclusion of any G5 team ever. The Irish, meanwhile, saw their odds shorten from 50-to-1 to 33-to-1 after beating Wisconsin 41-13 in Chicago. I’d rather have a Cincy ticket at 40-to-1 than a Notre Dame ticket at 33-to-1 (I believe the Bearcats will upset the Irish on Saturday).

Heisman odds

Player

Team

9/28

Last Week

Matt Corral

Ole Miss

150

200

Bryce Young

Alabama

250

275

Desmond Ridder

Cincinnati

2000

2000

Spencer Rattler

Oklahoma

2500

1500

JT Daniels

Georgia

2500

4000

CJ Stroud

Ohio State

3000

1500

TreVeyon Henderson

Ohio State

3300

5000

Malik Willis

Liberty

4000

2000

Sam Howell

North Carolina

4000

3000

Kenneth Walker III

Michigan State

4000

4000

Sean Clifford

Penn State

4000

6000

Jake Haener

Fresno State

4000

N/A

CJ Verdell

Oregon

5000

3300

Bijan Robinson

Texas

5000

5000

Anthony Brown

Oregon

5000

5000

Blake Corum

Michigan

5000

7000

DJ Uiagalelei

Clemson

8000

4000

Emory Jones

Florida

8000

6600

Brian Robinson Jr

Alabama

10000

5000

Breece Hall

Iowa State

10000

10000

Kenny Pickett

Pittsburgh

10000

10000

KJ Jefferson

Arkansas

10000

N/A

Dorian Thompson-Robinson

UCLA

12500

8000

Tank Bigsby

Auburn

12500

8000

John Metchie III

Alabama

12500

10000

Isaiah Spiller

Texas A&M

12500

15000

Jayden Daniels

Arizona State

15000

5000

Jack Coan

Notre Dame

15000

8000

Chris Olave

Ohio State

15000

15000

Taulia Tagovailoa

Maryland

15000

15000

Brock Purdy

Iowa State

15000

N/A

Casey Thompson

Texas

15000

N/A

Cade McNamara

Michigan

15000

N/A

Zamir White

Georgia

15000

N/A

Ainias Smith

Texas A&M

15000

N/A

Tyler Goodson

Iowa

15000

N/A

Spencer Petras

Iowa

15000

N/A

  • Last week, Ole Miss QB Matt Corral assumed frontrunner status at +200 to Bryce Young’s +275. This week, in the lead-up to Alabama-Ole Miss, Corral (66-of-96 for 997 yards and a 9/0 TD/INT rate with 158 yards rushing and five more scores for the 3-0 Rebels) is listed at +150 and Young (88-of-122 for 1,124 yards and a 15/1 TD/INT rate for the 4-0 Tide) is listed at +250. This is Corral’s moment: If the Rebels upset the Crimson Tide, his odds next week are going to be even-money or shorter. Objectively, Young is the better value as of today: If Alabama merely holds serve as 14.5-point favorites, Young is likely going to re-assume Heisman favorite status next week.

  • Cincinnati QB Desmond Ridder’s odds remained 20-to-1 following a bye week, but he hopped from tied for No. 5 on PointsBets’ Heisman board to sole possession of No. 3 this week. That’s because Oklahoma QB Spencer Rattler fell from +1,500 to +2,500, Ohio State QB CJ Stroud fell from +1,500 to +3,000, and Liberty QB Malk Willis fell from +2,000 to +4,000.

  • Rattler’s odds took on helium after another shaky performance in Oklahoma’s close win over West Virginia. At 25-to-1, he’s worth a look. His YPA is down two yards per pass, but he’s still thrown for 1,017 yards and an 8/3 TD/INT rate on 74.1% completions in four games for an undefeated, top-six, blueblood school. Remember: Through four games last year, fans also wanted Rattler benched. He was the best quarterback in America from there on out.

  • Stroud missed Ohio State’s blowout win over Akron on Saturday, depriving him of the opportunity to pile on some counting stats. Malik Willis’ fall coincided with Liberty’s loss at Syracuse last Friday night as six-point favorites.

  • Ridder -- 54-for-83 passing for 748 yards and a 7/2 TD/INT ratio -- has an enormous game coming up against Notre Dame. Ridder’s only shot to win the award is for Cincinnati to go undefeated in the regular season and make the playoff. I love Cincy and believe they’re going to beat Notre Dame -- a development that would assuredly cut Ridder’s odds heading into next week. But it’s hard for me to get on board with the idea of Ridder as the Heisman winner. Not only would that buck recent historical trends, but I’m not a believer in him as an elite player.

  • One running back that is hanging around in the top-15 of the board amid all the falling quarterbacks on the board around him: Texas’ Bijan Robinson. Robinson’s odds remained static at +5,000 despite a huge showing against TCU that included almost 200 total yards and a score. Through four games, Robinson has 436 rushing yards and five touchdowns on 70 carries and has posted an 8-145-2 receiving line. At +5,000, I think Robinson is a better value than Ohio State’s TreVeyon Henderson (+3,300) or Michigan State’s Kenneth Walker (+4,000). Walker got shut down by Nebraska over the weekend as Sparty snuck by in OT. Henderson had a long touchdown run against Minnesota in the opener and dropped 279 yards on Tulsa and 93 yards on Akron. But he only posted 66 total yards in the loss to Oregon. It would take unique circumstances for him to win the award. Robinson is going to continue getting 20-plus touches per game. If Texas goes 10-2 or better, he's got a real shot to get invited to New York.

Games of the Week

No. 5 Iowa at Maryland (Friday)

No. 8 Arkansas at No. 2 Georgia

No. 14 Michigan at Wisconsin

No. 7 Cincinnati at No. 9 Notre Dame

No. 12 Ole Miss at No. 1 Alabama

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