When setting your weekly NFL DFS lineups, it can be just as helpful to have an idea of whom you DON’T want to include as whom you do. Every Friday we’ll highlight a few players that you might want to fade. When a player appears here, it mainly refers to fading him in cash games. If you play in a lot of large field, multi-entry tournaments, you might consider just being underweight on these players relative to the field rather than not using them at all.
Players I’m fading for Week 4 include:
I’m taking out a lot of mistrust in the Chargers this week on Allen and that might not be entirely fair. Allen has had as many targets as DeAndre Hopkins, co-leading the league with 37. The fade has everything to do with wanting to roster the top passing options from games with high point totals and teams with high implied totals. In this light, the Chargers are in with the likes of Washington and the NY Giants this week (with an implied team total of 17.75). Vegas gets some things wrong (see the score of TNF), but there are other reasons to doubt Allen this week. The Bucs have been one of the better pass defenses this season, with 11 sacks and four interceptions in the last two games. Tom Brady and the Bucs will look to control this game from the outset, and Justin Herbert’s inexperience is likely to lead to some turnovers, which limit Allen opportunities. His price is nice, I just feel safer with the alternatives this week.
Nick Foles takeovers make for great storytelling. I’m not ruling out a magical game from Foles, or Robinson, but I view that as the unlikely possibility. Indianapolis quietly has one of the best defenses in the league. They are limiting opposing teams in every respect – allowing the fewest points per game, fewest fantasy points to QBs, fewest to TEs, third-fewest to WRs and fourth-fewest to RBs. This is a formidable challenge for Robinson, Anthony Miller, Jimmy Graham, Foles and David Montgomery to navigate, and I’m afraid it won’t be pretty. I like the QB swap overall, and will be enthusiastic for the future, but I’m not buying this week.
The Giants have now scored fewer points per game than any team in the NFL, a trend they carry over from last season. Slayton is the clear No. 1 here, but is the top player on a poor team worth the roster spot? Usually not. The Rams should dominate this game from the get-go, and if they put up points early, it will force Daniel Jones into pressure where he is liable to make mistakes. All this is to say that although Slayton may get some shots downfield, I think there are receivers in his salary range with a higher floor and equal ceiling.
Kenyon Drake, RB, Arizona Cardinals at Carolina
Seems like there’s always one RB in this article that I fade who goes off. Half-hoping that’s the case with Drake this weekend. Of course you know he gets the league-best RB matchup with the Panthers, who allow more fantasy points to the position than anyone else. However, this won’t be his first primo matchup, and frankly, I’ve been somewhat disappointed. First is his lack of targets. Though his catch rate is 100 percent, on FIVE total targets this season, this was a huge part of his appeal last year. His ~4.1 YPC is fine, and he is getting good volume (16-20 attempts per game), but the touchdowns haven’t been there. In fact, he has just one carry from inside the five-yard line (which he did convert for his lone TD). I’d love to see a dominant game from Drake, but despite the good indicators, I’m opting to fade him in cash lineups.
I’ve been writing about the Miami pass offense quite a bit, and just to balance that out and prove I’m not wholly Dolphin-crazy this week, I acknowledge that I’m fading Gaskin. I like Ryan Fitzpatrick and DeVante Parker (and Mike Gesicki, to a lesser extent) due to game flow predictions. I believe Seattle wins the game easily, but fantasy points in garbage time still count, right? That game flow leaves little in the way of action for Gaskin, who’s role is complicated by the fact that Jordan Howard has been the preferred red zone/goal line back (Jordan has converted three of eight attempts from inside the 10-yard line for touchdowns). There are lots of mid-range RBs to choose from this week, so look outside of the Miami backfield.
Players I like, but who are expected to have high ownership in Week 4 include: Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, Will Fuller V, Mark Andrews, Alvin Kamara, D.J. Moore, T.J. Hockenson, Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Hunter Renfrow, Rams D/ST. You might consider deviating away from this player pool and pivoting in large GPPs.