In this weekly article, we’ll look at the cheaper options that should return good value to your NFL DFS lineups. The bargain threshold varies by site, and position, but generally we’ll aim for our bargain plays to take up about 8-10 percent of your salary cap, except for quarterbacks, which we’ll allow 11-12 percent. A great tool to find bargains is our DFS projection system, which gives a dollar per fantasy point projection for each player. I refer to it often!
Fitzpatrick continues to surprise fantasy players, with back-to-back 24-fantasy point games in Weeks 2 & 3. Yet aside from Yahoo, his salary remains as depressed as the Dolphins’ record. That record isn’t bound to improve this week, but I do like Fitzpatrick to provide another good ROI. Seattle might be getting all the offensive attention based on Russell Wilson’s dominance, but in the background of all that offense is a defense that hasn’t really slowed opponents down this season. Seattle is giving up the second-most fantasy points to QBs, and most to opposing WRs. Miami is going to be in catchup, pass-heavy mode, which might lead Fitz to make a mistake or two, but I think he’ll also surpass 300 passing yards for the second time this year, and extend his 2-TD streak to three consecutive weeks.
I like Mayfield for a lot of the same reasons as Fitzpatrick. This game carries one of the highest totals of the week at 55.5 points, and Dallas, much like Seattle, represents one of the best fantasy QB matchups in the league. The Cowboys rank third (most fantasy points allowed) to QBs and second to WRs. It’s fantastic for fantasy when good offenses aren’t backed by shut down defenses. It means we can get Mayfield and several of his receiving weapons on the cheap. My trust order for those would be: Odell Beckham, Kareem Hunt, Jarvis Landry, Austin Hooper, other.
Through three weeks, no team has been more generous in fantasy points to running backs than the Raiders. Take it with a grain of salt, because they’ve had the misfortune of facing Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara and the eminent Rex Burkhead so far. In all seriousness, Buffalo is using Singletary effectively in both phases of the game, as evidenced by his combined 120 yards in Week 3. The downside of Singletary is of course Josh Allen rushing all the short touchdowns in, but cheap RB is a far more barren landscape this week. I’ll take the catches and yards, which should be sustainable in this game, especially if Zach Moss remains out.
Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns at Dallas ($16 Yahoo, $6200 DK, $5900 FD)
His salary is creeping up, especially on full PPR DraftKings, but I’m going to recommend him again. Thanks to the game factors, including that high total, I expect Hunt to be a big part of the receiving game again this week. What’s more important for his floor, however, is the fact that he is getting significant rushing opportunities too. He appeared on the injury report for Wednesday with a groin injury, which is something I’ll be monitoring closely throughout the week but am not overly concerned about at this point.
Also consider: Darrell Henderson Jr. (DK, Yahoo)
The Texans had a rough start to the season, but consider that in the rearview mirror this week. Assuming things go ok with the Vikings COVID-19 testing, Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks are in line for a sweet matchup with the inexperienced and thus far, ineffective secondary. The Vikings are giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to the position, and this seems like the perfect opportunity for Deshaun Watson to feed Fuller. It’s another 54-point over/under with Houston having an implied team total of 29.5 points, so Vegas foresees plenty of offense from the Texans.
I’m always bargain-hunting in the high scoring games, and whether or not there is anything to the hints of a CeeDee Lamb injury, Gallup is the WR2 on this potent Cowboys Offense. He had something of a breakout game in Week 3, catching six-of-nine targets including a touchdown, for a total of 138 receiving yards. Remember he could have had much more in Week 1, too, if not for a questionable OPI call. Feel free to use Amari Cooper here if he fits, and Dalton Schultz if you need to save more, but Gallup has a pretty decent floor-ceiling profile in this mid-salary range.
Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders vs. Buffalo ($13 Yahoo, $4600 DK, $5300 FD)
I would have liked Renfrow this week even if he wasn’t the only man left standing. With rookies Bryan Edwards ruled out and Henry Ruggs Jr. doubtful, not to mention Darren Waller possibly being hampered by a knee, it’s Renfrow, Nelson Agholor and Zay Jones (revenge game!). Renfrow is attractive in the slot because this is precisely the kind of player that the Bills have struggled to contain. We saw it Week 1 with Jamison Crowder (7/115/1), Week 2 with Mike Gesicki, who operated like a slot receiver (8-130-1) and Week 3 from Cooper Kupp (9-107-1). Eerily similar, right? After seeing just five targets in the first two games (total), Renfrow had nine in Week 3 vs. New England, which he capitalized on for 84 yards and a score. I expect him to remain heavily involved this week, and importantly, to largely avoid Tre’Davious White.
Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team vs. Baltimore ($14 Yahoo, $3500 DK, $4900 FD)
If you’re looking for value in a potentially high-passing game script, look no further. After getting quite the beat down by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, I expect the Ravens to come out motivated to score points. Pity the Football Team, but consider stacking Thomas alongside Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews. Thomas is averaging eight targets per game (with 7, 8, and 9 per game), and even though he’s touchdown-dependent – like most TEs, he does have five red zone targets this season. Ultimately, Washington is going to have to throw the ball a ton to try to keep pace in this game, and Logan Thomas is therefore in position to exceed value.
O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. LA Chargers ($15 Yahoo, $3300 DK, $4800 FD)
The Bucs are kind of maddening with their usage schemes this season. I suppose it’s keeping opponents guessing too, with the back and forth between Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones, Jr. and Rob Gronkowski and Howard. It’s a good situation to be in, I guess, but I still like Howard as the more dynamic receiving option. Even during Gronk’s ‘big week’, Howard was targeted four times, and exceeded his receiving yardage (by one yard, but still). On the season, Howard had been targeted more often and produced more on them. With Chris Godwin out, there’s probably room for both, but I’m saving with Howard.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England ($15 Yahoo, $3200 DK, $3800 FD)
I’m not going to lie, it was a stretch to come up with a cheap defense I could write about this week. The smart moves are to pay up for one of the obvious, smarter, options. If you’re intent on paying down, the Chiefs are at home, are coming off a monster win over rival Baltimore, and are touchdown favorites. The Chiefs D/ST has recorded four sacks in two games this season, and not scored fewer than five fantasy points. They’ve allowed opponents exactly 20 points in all three games. New England is certainly no pushover, but I could see Cam Newton giving up a pick or a fumble or both here.