Week 4 Heisman and CFB Title odds

·6 min read



Heisman and national title odds courtesy of PointsBet.

National title odds

Team

Today

Last week

Alabama

175

210

Georgia

325

400

Oklahoma

900

800

Clemson

1100

700

Ohio State

1100

900

Oregon

2500

2500

Texas A&M

3300

4000

Penn State

4000

5000

Iowa

4000

7500

Florida

5000

6000

Notre Dame

5000

7500

Michigan

6600

7500

Cincinnati

6600

8000

Iowa State

8000

8000

Ole Miss

10000

10000

Wisconsin

12500

12500

USC

12500

10000

Texas

12500

15000

North Carolina

12500

10000

Auburn

12500

10000

LSU

15000

7500

UCLA

15000

10000

Michigan State

15000

20000

Utah

15000

15000

  • Our four-biggest jumpers this week: Iowa (30-7 win over Kent State), Notre Dame (27-13 win over Purdue), Michigan State (38-17 win over Miami), Penn State (28-20 win over Auburn) and Cincinnati (38-24 win over Indiana).

  • Iowa (+4000) has another plum matchup this week (Colorado State), but then may play two consecutive games against undefeated Big Ten teams (Maryland and Penn State). The Nittany Lions and Wisconsin Badgers are the only two ranked teams remaining on Iowa's schedule.

  • Penn State, now ranked in the top-10 at 3-0, has two other ranked opponents upcoming outside of Iowa: Ohio State and Michigan State. The Nittany Lions and Hawkeyes have the same title odds (+4000). Here's the reason I'm more bullish on Iowa: Penn State's games against Iowa, Ohio State and Michigan State are all on the road. Interestingly, SP+ disagrees, giving Penn State the highest odds in the Big 10 of finishing 11-1 or better (20.1%). SP+ gives Iowa a 13.6% chance of doing the same.

  • A pair of teams outside the top-10 of the board with identical odds to keep an eye on: Michigan and Cincinnati (both +6600). SP+ gives Michigan a 19.4% chance of finishing 11-1 or better. The Bearcats, meanwhile, have a bye week to get ready for the titanic road trip to Notre Dame on Oct. 2. Should Cincy beat the Irish and then win out, they're going to have a strong argument to become the first Group of 5 team to reach the playoff.

  • Among the top-10 on the board, Alabama (+175), Georgia (+325), Texas A&M (+3300) all saw minor odds-cuts after blowout wins against inferior opponents.

Heisman odds

Player

Team

Today

Last Week

Matt Corral

Ole Miss

200

600

Bryce Young

Alabama

275

230

Spencer Rattler

Oklahoma

1500

600

CJ Stroud

Ohio State

1500

4000

Desmond Ridder

Cincinnati

2000

2000

Malik Willis

Liberty

2000

N/A

Sam Howell

North Carolina

3000

8000

CJ Verdell

Oregon

3300

N/A

DJ Uiagalelei

Clemson

4000

2500

JT Daniels

Georgia

4000

3000

Kenneth Walker III

Michigan State

4000

N/A

Bijan Robinson

Texas

5000

4000

Brian Robinson Jr

Alabama

5000

5000

Jayden Daniels

Arizona State

5000

5000

Anthony Brown

Oregon

5000

N/A

TreVeyon Henderson

Ohio State

5000

N/A

Sean Clifford

Penn State

6000

8000

Emory Jones

Florida

6600

4000

Blake Corum

Michigan

7000

N/A

Dorian Thompson-Robinson

UCLA

8000

4000

Tank Bigsby

Auburn

8000

5000

D’Eriq King

Miami

8000

8000

Jack Coan

Notre Dame

8000

8000

Bo Nix

Auburn

10000

8000

John Metchie III

Alabama

10000

8000

Breece Hall

Iowa State

10000

N/A

Kenny Pickett

Pittsburgh

10000

N/A

McKenzie Milton

Florida State

12500

N/A

Isaiah Spiller

Texas A&M

15000

8000

Chris Olave

Ohio State

15000

N/A

Garrett Wilson

Ohio State

15000

N/A

Tyrion Davis-Price

LSU

15000

N/A

Charlie Brewer

Utah

15000

N/A

Taulia Tagovailoa

Maryland

15000

N/A

Carson Strong

Nevada

15000

N/A

Joe Milton

Tennessee

15000

N/A

Zay Flowers

Boston College

15000

N/A

Chase Brice

Appalachian State

15000

N/A

  • Big shakeup this week, including: five brand-new names listed among the top-20 of PointsBets' Heisman board, a new frontrunner, and a clear separation between the top-two names on the board and everybody else.

  • That new frontrunner is Ole Miss QB Matt Corral. An incredible rise for a player who opened at 50-to-1 after last season. Corral's latest exploit was becoming the first player in the history of NCAA college football to tally three passing and four rushing touchdowns in the same game -- he finished 23-of-31 for 335 yards against Tulane.

We knew Corral was going to put up video game stats this year (he's averaging 385 total yards per game and has 14 total TD through three games), the bigger question with his candidacy had to do with whether the Rebels defense would improve enough to elevate Ole Miss into the 9-10 win category that Corral would likely need to win the hardware. The Rebs' defensive charges aren't quite back to their Landshark heyday, but they're allowing 20.7 points per game and 4.8 yards per play and now rank top-50 SP+. As for Corral, he's on pace to hit 4,000 passing yards, 600 rushing yards and 50-plus total touchdowns. And have I mentioned he hasn't thrown an interception yet this season? Corral's Rebels travel to Tuscaloosa to play Alabama on Oct. 2. That game will have enormous Heisman and CFB playoff implications.

  • That day, Corral will square off against Alabama QB Bryce Young, whose odds dropped ever-so-slightly from +230 last week to +275 this week. Young is up to 804 yards with a 10/0 TD/INT ratio. But interestingly, despite Young's most ubiquitous comp to Kyler Murray, he's sitting at -4 rushing yards (college football omits sack yardage from a quarterback's rushing total). With the sorts of numbers his competition is putting up, the question with Young could come down to counting stats. He's still the quarterback of the best team in college football.

  • Michigan State RB Kenneth Walker III is listed at 40-to-1 after gashing Miami for 172 yards on 27 carries (6.4 YPC) in last Saturday's upset win. Walker leads the nation with 494 rushing yards through three games. The Spartans will need to win 10 games for Walker to have any chance. But he's going to continue to get ridiculous usage.

  • We welcome Michigan RB Blake Corum to the big board this week. Corum is averaging 8.5 yards per carry and his 407 rushing yards ranks No. 3 in the nation. Interestingly, Corum isn't even listed at a few other notable sportsbooks. PointsBet users can get in on the ground floor at 70-to-1, however, if they believe Corum is a darkhorse.

  • On the other end of things, several players are seeing their candidacy nearing extinction: Clemson QB D.J. Uiagalelei (+2500 to +4000), Florida QB Emory Jones (+4000 to +6600), Arizona State QB Jayden Daniels (+4000 to off-the-board), Texas A&M RB Isaiah Spiller (+8000 to +15000) and UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson (+4000 to +8000).

Games of the Week

No. 18 Wisconsin vs. No. 12 Notre Dame (Chicago: Soldier Field)

No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 16 Arkansas (Arlington: AT&T Stadium)

No. 9 Clemson at NC State

No. 14 Iowa State at Baylor

No. 25 Kansas State at Oklahoma State

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