Week 4 Receivers
WR Notes: All of Tyreek Hill’s underlying metrics remain fine. The Eagles have thus far been limiting enemy receiver production, but you never bet against Hill. … Cooper Kupp has 14.2 more half PPR points than any other receiver. It is worth mentioning that Byron Murphy and the Cardinals have defensed the slot well thus far. … Stefon Diggs has yet to finish below 60 yards … or above 70. This feels like the week the Texans’ bending pass defense finally breaks. … Justin Jefferson is so close to an explosion you can practically feel it. The only time the Browns’ secondary has been tested this season was in Week 1 by Tyreek Hill, and they surrendered 11/197/1. … DK Metcalf is seeing more volume than Tyler Lockett. Metcalf maintains the higher floor and equal ceiling to his running mate, who checks in as the WR3 by half PPR points. Week 4 opponent San Francisco finally faced a non-dysfunctional passing attack in Week 3 and got carved up by Davante Adams. It is only a matter of time for Metcalf, and Lockett is maybe the most “any given week” fantasy player out there.
Neither CeeDee Lamb nor Amari Cooper saw Week 3 volume in a non-competitive contest where the Cowboys got fully established on the ground. It’s difficult to know how the ‘Boys might approach the Panthers, who will arrive at JerryWorld sporting both the league’s No. 1 pass and run defenses after a tissue-soft three-game slate to begin the year. Lamb remains the better floor and upside bet as Cooper deals with his ribs issue. … For D.J. Moore’s sake, hopefully the Panthers aren’t serious about getting Robby Anderson more involved. It is hard to see how they could be after Anderson’s average intended air yards have so far doubled from 9.6 in 2020 to 18.4. That latter mark is third in the league. Maybe Anderson will suddenly return to his 2020 usage in Big D, but he is settling in as a dart throw WR4 as Moore becomes Stefon Diggs Jr. in the lower end of the WR1 ranks. Cowboys CB Trevon Diggs is a Week 4 wild card. … The Football Team’s pass defense has been stunningly lax to begin 2021. We know they will surrender volume to Calvin Ridley. Is this the week he finally ups his aDOT and makes some plays down the field?
It is quite possible I am not giving Mike Williams the respect he deserves. Only Cooper Kupp has more fantasy points. This will be the week Williams finally cools off or cements himself as an every-week WR1. Although he has drawn to a targets standstill with Keenan Allen, Williams has been more efficient, more than doubling his teammate in yards per route run. … DeAndre Hopkins (ribs) is at less than 100 percent and likely to see a heavy Week 4 dose of Jalen Ramsey. Hopkins remains capable of winning any 1-on-1 matchup, so we don’t fade him out of the top 20. Beyond Hop, Rondale Moore, Christian Kirk and A.J. Green are trading points. Green still has a routes advantage on his younger teammates, but Moore and Kirk have contributed more splash plays. … A.J. Brown’s hamstring injury was looking like a green light for Julio Jones. Then the big fella came down with a hamstring ailment of his own. Jones seems more likely to suit up than Brown, but he has not been productive at less than full health in recent seasons. The Titans are going to ground the Jets into submission with Derrick Henry. … Taylor Heinicke remains a Terry McLaurin variable, but it is hard to see how the duo screws up a Week 4 date with the Falcons.
Deebo Samuel has yet to post fewer than five receptions or eight targets. Those numbers are safe floor bets even though the Seahawks have been ludicrously vulnerable on the ground. They are not much tougher through the air. … Mike Evans surprisingly avoided Jalen Ramsey’s Week 3 shadow and out-produced Chris Godwin. We don’t know which wideout master Patriots game planner Bill Belichick will prioritize stopping. Antonio Brown remains on the COVID-19 list. All we really know is that Godwin and Evans both belong in the top 20 as safe WR2s. … Courtland Sutton had a Week 3 production stalemate with Tim Patrick as the Broncos predictably did not have to take to the skies to beat the Jets. It will be a different story vs. Baltimore. Gritty as Patrick is, there remains an enormous gulf between his and Sutton’s projections. … The Texans have one weapon in Brandin Cooks. To their credit, they have known how to find him. Nothing about Cooks’ Week 4 setup from a micro (Tre’Davious White) or macro (everything) perspective is appealing, but the man should get his looks, in garbage time or otherwise. … Odell Beckham was not limited in his Week 3 return, pacing the Browns’ receivers in every category, including routes. The Vikings have not had an answer for anybody in 2021.
Tee Higgins (shoulder) is missing another game. Even if Ja’Marr Chase isn’t seeing prodigious volume, he has immediately established a top-24 floor and top-12 upside. … Diontae Johnson (knee) began his week limited while JuJu Smith-Schuster (ribs) sat. Chase Claypool is not on the injury report despite coming up gimpy vs. the Bengals. Claypool is certainly the most sensible bet vs. the Packers from a dot-connecting perspective. … Has Allen Robinson finally encountered quarterback play too poor for even him to overcome? We can’t bet on Robinson as a WR2 if Justin Fields starts. If it is Andy Dalton (knee), Robinson will be jammed into the top 24 against an awful Lions secondary. … Marquise Brown’s three-TD drop Week 3 could not have come at a worse time, as first-round rookie Rashod Bateman (core muscle surgery) has resumed practicing. Although it might feel like you are selling low, it could be time to explore selling high on Brown for another WR3/4. … Michael Pittman has been resilient through extreme quarterback lows, but it will probably all be too much to overcome vs. Xavien Howard and company. … We need Laviska Shenault to make some noise on Thursday Night Football or he could be entering drop territory. … James Bradberry will make Week 4 life tough for Marquez Callaway, though he did finally flash some in Week 3. With byes not beginning until Week 6, give Callaway as much time as possible before making a drop call. … Josh Gordon’s addition is bad news for Mecole Hardman. The third-year pro is not hitting enough big plays.