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Week two of the NFL season will see the Miami Dolphins travel to New York as heavy favorites to take on the New York Jets. Most betting sites have the Dolphins at -6 (six point favorites) with an over/under of 43. That is a lot of points to give up if you are a Dolphins fans especially on the road. So let’s take a look at some key factors as I make my official prediction.
Injuries in the NFL are key components to how teams will be week to week. This week the New York Jets have a massive list of injuries, especially on the defensive line. If you look at what Miami did last week they ran often and with success. That does not bode well for the Jets this weekend with Jay Ajayi coming to town.
Miami 27 – New York 10
In the last two games the Jets have failed to score over twenty points, and have allowed both teams to score more than twenty. The Dolphins in their one outing held Phillip Rivers and that offense to less than twenty points however didn’t score twenty.
I believe that the Miami front seven will apply some pressure to Josh McCown and force turnovers. I also expect Jay Ajayi and Kenyan Drake to see plenty of carries this week. Also expect Jay Cutler to have another week of game managing with calculated shots down field. I do expect Miami to cover and am also expecting the under in this matchup.
Miami 34 – New York 7
This one could get ugly for the Jets. With an offense that hasn’t been able to take form primarily due to issues with finding a quarterback worth keeping, the Jets might be facing trouble even from Miami’s shaky secondary. Despite issues at quarterback, the Jets have a reliable target in Jermaine Kearse who will probably serve as their primary receiving threat. On the other side of the ball: If the Jets defense played like they did last week, allowing 45 points from the Raiders, they should be picked apart by Cutler and Miami’s talented receiving corps.
Miami 30 – New York 20
The Dolphins should be able to establish the line of scrimmage and thus, Ajayi will be able to continue his strong start. The Jets will have to pick their poison. Either try and stack the box to stop Ajayi or try to prevent Miami’s receiving corps from making big plays. Cutler will play another efficient game. The Dolphins will get to the quarterback more often than last week and will control the trenches on both sides of the ball.
Miami 27 – New York 13
With the Jets offensive line banged up, the Dolphins defensive line needs to dominate. Last week the Miami defense got torn up by the Chargers passing game. Rivers went 31-39, 331 yards and a touchdown, a 110.6 passer rating. Miami’s defense got little pressure, leaving the secondary exposed. Look for Jets to do the same as Los Angeles and use a short, quick passing game. Miami needs to take advantage of one of the worse rushing defenses so far this season.
Jay Ajayi will be the x-factor in this game. When Jay Ajayi has his way with a defense it makes life for Jay Cutler easier. If Ajayi has a big day it’ll open up the play action.
Miami 34 – New York 13
Jay Ajayi will run wild on the Jets 30th ranked rushing defense, eclipsing 125 yards and scoring multiple time. Smokin’ Jay and the receiving corp will continue to mesh as the running game allows the ‘Fins to stretch the field. Defensively look for the pass rush to make things difficult all night for McCown, forcing miscues and turnovers.
Miami 21 – New York 14
I have a feeling this game won’t be as easy as everyone is predicting, but I still think the Dolphins come away with the W. The biggest question mark going into this game is Jay Ajayi’s knee injury. If it doesn’t limit him, he should be able to run all over the Jets. If he isn’t 100%, I don’t feel as great about the Dolphins’ chances having to rely solely on Cutler’s arm. As long as Jay Ajayi is healthy, the Dolphins should pull this one out pretty easily.
Miami 27 – New York 13
After a conservative first game I expect the Dolphins to come out aggressive against the rebuilding Jets. Parker is hampered by ankle issues, but Cutler is more comfortable now with a full game under his belt. Expect Ajayi and Landry to make some big plays against that defense. These divisional games tend to be closer than people think, but this shouldn’t be too close.