When setting your weekly NFL DFS lineups, it can be just as helpful to have an idea of whom you DON’T want to include as whom you do. Every Friday we’ll highlight a few players that you might want to fade. When a player appears here, it mainly refers to fading him in cash games. If you play in a lot of large field, multi-entry tournaments, you might consider just being underweight on these players relative to the field rather than not using them at all.
Players I’m fading for Week 3 include:
Johnson, Watson and the Texans have been in two tough games so far, both losses, and Johnson’s usage has been almost exactly the same: 11 carries, 2-3 targets. Houston’s offensive line remains an issue, and as 4for4 noted, Houston has the league’s highest adjusted sack rate while Pittsburgh is one of the most pressuring defenses. I don’t like this game for any of the Texans with so many other options in their respective salary ranges. To make matters worse, Houston’s defense isn’t slowing anyone down, which means I expect Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers to control the ball most of the game.
Both Raiders stars appear on the injury report this week, and while both should ultimately play, both have me concerned. New England’s defense schemes to take away the opponent’s best weapon(s), and the offense is winning the time of possession battle with about plus-3.5 minutes on their opponents. I don’t feel it’s worth the risk to roster either with similar options like Kenyon Drake or Tyler Higbee/Chris Carson or Miles Sanders in great matchups with less injury concern.
Derrick Henry – RB, Tennessee at Minnesota
While Henry leads all running backs in attempts (56), and is second with 200 rushing yards, his zero touchdowns and resulting lack of fantasy points are a problem at his salary. I thought it might be due to defensive scheming, but over half his rushes have come against a light defensive front, and he averages 6.6 defenders in the box. I’m reluctant to just believe that Henry only exceeds value in December, but it’s hard to keep paying up for him for 10-15 fantasy points. I don’t love Ezekiel Elliott much this week either (too high on Dak Prescott and the pass game), but if you’re determined to spend top dollar, I’d do it on the back with massive red zone usage and a sky-high point total. That’s Elliott, not Henry. Better still, draw from the many good options in the mid-range.
Aside from Watson, I have no real problems with most of the higher-priced QBs this weekend. If you’re looking to go more contrarian and save on QB, though, go somewhere besides Jones. I grabbed him in a couple Superflex/2QB leagues and dread having to use him. As depleted as the 49ers defense is, I am having a hard time justifying Jones outside of the fact that he’d be contrarian. He’s not cheap enough, for one thing. But also, he’s without several key offensive components, with a newly signed Devonta Freeman, and frankly, didn’t show the kind of growth I was hoping for in season 2. He’s generated four turnovers already, and didn’t throw a touchdown against Chicago last week. It’s early to give up on anyone, but the great thing about DFS is the choice. Choose someone else this week!
Godwin has cleared the concussion protocol and is set to play on Sunday. The Bucs will face a team dealing with more injuries than even San Fran. I don’t hate Godwin, I just don’t think the Bucs will have to break much of a sweat, so to speak, to win this game. I expect Mike Evans to stay heavily involved, and he’s my preferred wide receiver from this team for Week 3. With back-to-back touchdowns, Evans seems well inside Tom Brady’s circle of trust. Godwin will certainly have his weeks, but this game screams early lead, run out the clock. That’s just not Godwin’s upside game script.
Players I like, but who are expected to have high ownership in Week 3 include: Josh Allen, Ben Roethlisberger, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Calvin Ridley, Kenyon Drake, Austin Ekeler, Mike Davis, Jerick McKinnon, Dion Lewis, Tyler Higbee, Dalton Schultz, San Francisco D/ST, Indianapolis D/ST or Tampa Bay D/ST.You might consider deviating away from this player pool and pivoting in large GPPs.