Week 3 Booms, Busts and Breakouts: Will Aaron Jones impress in return?
Each week our gaggle of Yahoo analysts show their hands and reveal their top booms, busts and breakouts. Gaze into the crystal ball and list your picks, using the strict rules set, in the comment section below.
Among non-obvious start or DFS plays for Yahoo leagues, the loudest BOOM in Week 3 will come from ________.
Dalton — COREY CLEMENT. With Jay Ajayi uncertain to play and likely limited if he does (and Darren Sproles probably out), Clement is a sleeper to see 15-20 touches in a favorable home matchup with Philadelphia as near touchdown favorites. The Eagles are extremely thin on playmakers with Alshon Jeffery and Mike Wallace banged up, and Clement ranks top-10 among backs this year in yards per touch (6.9) and fantasy points per opportunity (1.30), so he’s fully capable of making the most of an expanded workload.
Matt — IAN THOMAS. The rookie tight end didn’t immediately deliver on his starting chances with Greg Olsen out in Week 2 but the opportunity metrics were stellar. Ian Thomas went out for 94 percent of the Panthers offensive snaps last week and ran 43 routes. Only Zach Ertz ran more among Week 2 tight ends. Thomas will get a chance at redemption in Week 3 against the Bengals. Cincinnati looks fierce up front but is tied with Tampa Bay for the most catches (20) allowed to tight ends in 2018. Thomas is clearly gifted and the stats will follow that talent in Week 3.
Brad — AARON JONES. Listen, I trust Mike McCarthy as much as I trust Pete Carroll: minimally. Jones may open third in the pecking order, but anticipate a hot hand situation to develop in Washington. The UTEP product, who logged 2.9 yards after contact per attempt last year, takes command against a Redskins front that’s allowed 4.41 yards per carry to RBs this year. Bank on him making the most of his 11-13 touches en route to 50-60 yards and a score.
Conversely, among players started in over 50 percent of Yahoo leagues, the biggest Week 3 BUST will be ________.
Brad — INSERT SEAHAWK. On defense, Seattle is a busted clock riding shotgun in a car with a pair of flat tires. The offensive line, which currently ranks dead last in run-blocking efficiency and No. 16 in pass-blocking, is seemingly irreparable. Brian Schottenheimer’s unimaginative play calling combined with no Doug Baldwin spells doom for Russell Wilson and Co. this week against a fast-rising Dallas defense. The ‘Boys have yielded just 6.9 pass yards per attempt and 3.66 yards per carry (to RBs). Trust no one, not even Mr. Ciara.
Dalton — MARSHAWN LYNCH. His lowly 3.7 YPC mark to open the year is in part due to a tough schedule (he’s breaking tackles like usual), but that doesn’t get any easier Sunday with an early game across the country against a Miami team that enters surprisingly ranked first in defensive DVOA through two weeks. The Raiders are underdogs and Lynch doesn’t see much work in the passing game, so he’s likely to disappoint in Week 3.
Matt — DEMARYIUS THOMAS. Demaryius Thomas is averaging just 7.4 yards per catch this season and has the lowest average depth of target (9.3) among all Broncos wideouts. He’s been clearly outplayed by fellow receiver Emmanuel Sanders since the summer. Thomas will face a tough matchup against the Ravens solid outside corners while Sanders will run against exploitable slot man Tavon Young. In a game where Denver has a sub-20-point implied team total, Thomas looks like a fade.
Chuck a Hail Mary, one deeper player you believe BREAKS OUT in Week 3 is ______.
Brad — KERRYON JOHNSON. The last time Detroit had a consistent ground game, yours truly was jamming to Snoop’s “Doggystyle”…on cassette. It’s been a minute. However, at some point, Matt Patricia has to establish the run in order to be competitive. New England, which has allowed 4.98 yards per carry to RBs thus far, is a prime opportunity — if the Lions can keep pace. The rookie, off a 13-touch, 66-yard game, could see an expanded role, especially in the pass game. Detroit’s nonexistent defense could lead to 6-plus receptions. Mark me down for 70-plus yards and a score.
Dalton — CALVIN RIDLEY. He turned in a 4-64-1 line last week after a quiet NFL debut and should see increased work Sunday in a game with a high over/under (53 points). Moreover, Ridley gets a Saints defense that’s allowed an NFL-high 11.4 YPA and by far the most fantasy points to wide receivers so far this season, so expect the rookie to break out during Sunday’s shootout.
Matt — SONY MICHEL. The Lions rush defense has been so horrific that even the green-as-grass Sony Michel has a shot at breakout game against them in Week 3. Rex Burkhead saw just six carries last week and was a non-factor in the passing game. The veteran back hasn’t been healthy all summer. Michel has been banged up as well but handled 12 touches last week. The Lions have allowed an NFL-high 363 yards to running backs this season, leading the second-place Raiders by almost a full 100 yards (265). That’s gross. Michel is a risky start but has a shot to rip some big plays in Detroit and begin building momentum in this backfield.
Handicapping Lounge: If I had to go to the window to punch a Week 3 against-the-spread ticket, my jelly beans would be on ______.
Brad — TAMPA BAY +1.5
Dalton — SEATTLE -1.5
Matt — BALTIMORE -5.5
