Week 2 CFB Player Props Opening Line Best Bets

·3 min read



Here are a few plays to get after IMMEDIATELY before these lines inevitably change:

Miles Kendrick, QB, New Mexico vs. Boise State - 177.5 Passing Yards

and

Sherod White, RB, New Mexico vs. Boise State - 52.5 Rushing Yards

and

Geordon Porter, WR, @New Mexico vs. Boise State - 4.5 Receptions

Pick your poison here, as New Mexico's perceived competence has reached it's absolute apex coming off a 41-0 destruction of FCS Maine who had to travel across the continent to play UNM. I hope the Lobos enjoyed their ensuing soiree, because it's now time for a reality check with Boise State's monster defense that allowed 19 PPG last season and returns nine starters rolling into town this week. Phil Steele ranks Boise State as having the 5th-best pass defense in the nation, so i'm respectfully going to need to see UNM's passing game and this person i've never heard of named Geordon Porter run back his career-high of five receptions for 54 yards and a touchdown last week against Maine. This is the same Geordon Porter who tallied six receptions on 11 targets over the past two seasons combined for ASU. He's now playing for the dead-last ranked scoring offense in the country last season, as UNM scored 12.2 PPG, which is 3.5 points less than the next lowest scoring team. Good Luck hitting the Over on any of these three plays, but especially Kendrick and Porter.

James Bostic, WR, Ohio at Penn State - 5.0 Receptions

This play is pretty cut and dried, with this line being a drastic overreaction to Bostic catching six passes on seven targets for 136 yards and a touchdown in a 41-38 track meet against FAU. Keep in mind that the two teams combined for 709 passing yards. This week Oho travels to Happy Valley for a paycheck game against Penn State and their aggressive CB1 Joey Porter in a paycheck game. In his two previous seasons at Vanderbilt, Bostic combined for six receptions and two drops on 23 targets for 46 yards with zero touchdowns. If I get beat on this play, so be it. I'll fall on my sword and sing the praises of Ohio Second Year HC Tim Albin for discovering the previously untapped potential of Mr. Bostic. As it stands, Under 5.0 Receptions is a gift from whatever divine entity you adhere to.

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Tayvion Robinson, WR, Kentucky at Florida - 4.5 Receptions

When capping Robinson's projected usage and role in the Kentucky offense, we can reasonably look at how Wan'Dale Robinson performed last season while occupying the same role. In 2021 Wan'Dale lined up in the slot 72% of the time while receiving a gaudy 140 targets in 13 games, the fifth highest mark in the nation, that he converted into 104 receptions for an average of 8 recs per game. For his part, Tayvion is a proven commodity with a 65% career catch rate, back-to-back 500+ yard seasons and dropped just one pass in 45 catch opportunities last season. In Week 1 he caught 6-of-8 passes for 136 yards while spending 58% of his snaps in the slot, which could mean Tayvion will see a little more time outside than Wan'Dale did this season. What I loved about Wan'Dale's role last year was how he was manufactured touches, similar to this perfectly executed play action catch and run by Tayvion against Miami (OH). Nice sell on the run fake too, savvy:

https://twitter.com/BenFennell_NFL/status/1566806278504124416?s=20&t=dEiyMF4-OhugKzJKOrZP6g

I see a likely increase in Tayvion Robinson's target share at The Swamp when UK faces a revitalized Florida where UK. The Cats are starting two talented, but raw, true freshman alongside him, so UK is going to need to get the ball in their most proven and experienced passing option who won't get jitters being on the road in a big time SEC environment for the first time. Over 4.5 Receptions for Robinson is a play.