Week 18 NFL DFS Stacks

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·5 min read
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  • Buffalo Bills
    Buffalo Bills
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  • Indianapolis Colts
    Indianapolis Colts
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  • New Orleans Saints
    New Orleans Saints
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  • Seattle Seahawks
    Seattle Seahawks
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  • Michael Pittman Jr.
    Michael Pittman Jr.
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  • Jonathan Taylor
    Jonathan Taylor
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  • Devin Singletary
    Devin Singletary
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This weekly article gets us ready for NFL DFS by considering some of the safest stacks, contrarian stacks, and a mini-stack or two. The premise is based on research showing the degree of correlation between one player’s fantasy output and another in his game. Among the strongest correlations are QB-QB(opponent), QB-WR1, QB-WR2, QB-WR1(opponent), QB-TE, and RB-D/ST. These are for the main slate on Sunday.

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Safe Stacks:

Indianapolis vs. Jacksonville: Carson Wentz, Michael Pittman, Jonathan Taylor

The Colts are one of the more motivated teams to play this weekend – simply win and they’re in. Everyone likes them to do it, too, as they are one of the biggest favorites of the weekend (the spread is up to minus-15.5 points at many Vegas sportsbooks). Taylor is expensive, but too good to not include in any kind of Colts stack ever, but especially in a fantasy-friendly matchup like this one. Wentz and Pittman are more affordable components, and should be looking to light it up in advance of the playoffs. Pittman has caught 14 of 18 targets in the last two games, with receiving yards that pushed him over 1000 for the season, but his low-double-digit fantasy numbers are a far cry from the big, two-touchdown games we were getting used to in the middle of the season. I think we’ll finish the regular season with a big game from all three Colts as they secure their path to the playoffs on Sunday.

Buffalo vs. NY Jets: Josh Allen, Devin Singletary, Cole Beasley

The Bills are rolling again, in great form heading into the post-season. They have a chance to improve their seeding with a win over the Jets, and like the Colts, they are huge home favorites to do it. Allen should take advantage of this matchup on the ground and through the air. The Jets are the league-best RB matchup, so both Allen and Singletary could make big gains on the ground this Sunday. Singletary is one of my favorite RB plays this week, and his salary really hasn’t come up as much as one would think. His stat lines have been getting better and better over the last four games, trending from 15 PPR fantasy points up to 26 in Week 17 as Singletary had his first 100-yard rushing game of the season. He’s been mixing into the pass game when needed as well, with the occasional 5-6 catch game boosting his bottom line. Ultimately, it’s the volume that’s working. The Bills seem to have committed to him and the run game to a much greater extent than any other time. Stefon Diggs is fine, if you have the salary for him, but I’m marketing Beasley for the much greater salary savings and overlapping targets/outcomes.

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Contrarian Stack:

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona: Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, James Conner

Arizona has everything to play for and the Seahawks have nothing, except maybe divisional pride and the thrill of playing spoiler. Arizona has been susceptible to the pass game this season, giving up the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Not knowing who will have the better game week-to-week, it’s safest to roster both Lockett and Metcalf with Wilson. We are trying to be different here after all. If you’re too uncomfortable with that, I’d go with Metcalf as the priority. His greater target share and squeaky wheel-ness paid off at last in Week 17, and there is potentially more regression due. James Conner is my preferred play to pair with this game stack, as the Seahawks have been atrocious at stopping the run. They rank second in fantasy points allowed to the RB position, and when healthy, Conner has been simply terrific this season. If he’s ruled out again, I’d use Chase Edmonds, but if both are active, it’s Conner.

New Orleans at Atlanta: Taysom Hill, Alvin Kamara, Marquez Calloway, Kyle Pitts

New Orleans is a long shot to make the playoffs, but they play at the same time as San Francisco, so they have to play hard. We saw what the Bills just did to Atlanta, and frankly, it’s a repeating theme. The Falcons give up the fourth-most real points and seventh-most overall fantasy points to their opponents, with best DvP to QB (second) and WR (sixth). It’s not too bad for Kamara either, as they rank ninth to running backs. Hill has some rushing upside here and the best hope for the Saints is that Pitts and the Falcons can somehow keep this game in reach. I say Pitts because he gives them their best shot at doing that. New Orleans is still one of the most formidable run defenses in the league and Cordarrelle Patterson has started to look more like the player we’ve seen over the past several seasons. Calloway is not just a cheap throw-in, he’s Hill’s favorite target, notching 10 targets and nearly 100 receiving yards in Week 17. This should be a relatively lower-owned game stack but could be unique and inexpensive enough to allow you to do some interesting things in GPPs.

Mini-Stack of the week:

Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp

This isn’t the first time these two players have been featured in this space and there’s not much left to write about them. This is a key game for the Rams to secure the division title better seed for the playoffs. The 49ers aren’t a great matchup and they are playing for their life too, making this one of the most anticipated games of the weekend. I believe that Stafford and Kupp will rise to the challenge, and can see pairing them in any contest this week. Sony Michel could be added, along with one or two 49ers skill players, to create a full game stack, but as is usually the case, Kupp is the guy you don’t want to be without.