Week 18 NFL DFS Fades

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  • New York Giants
    New York Giants
    LiveTodayTomorrowvs--|
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers
    Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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  • Tom Brady
    Tom Brady
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  • Jake Fromm
    Jake Fromm
    LiveTodayTomorrowvs--|



When setting your weekly NFL DFS lineups, it can be just as helpful to have an idea of whom you DON’T want to include as whom you do. Every Friday we’ll highlight a few players that you might want to fade. When a player appears here, it mainly refers to fading him in cash games. If you play in a lot of large field, multi-entry tournaments, you might consider just being underweight on these players relative to the field rather than not using them at all.

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Players I’m fading for Week 18 include:

Jake Fromm, NY Giants vs. Washington

Normally, I see Washington on the schedule and get ready to roster that opposing QB. Even after Jalen Hurts was awful against them last week, the Football Team gives up the most fantasy points to opposing QBs. Somehow, I think they’re going to be able to limit Fromm this weekend. This is a desperation start for New York, whose season was over almost as soon as it started. There is no motivation on the Giants to do anything spectacular, and they can’t even take pride as a spoiler since Washington is also out of the running. I expect a very low scoring, not at all fantasy-friendly game from both sides, despite the plus on-paper matchups.

Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina

The Bucs keep saying no one will rest and Brady does have some incentives in his contract that are within reach, but nothing is more important to Brady than the postseason. He certainly isn’t going to go all out and put himself in any jeopardy of impacting the playoffs. His eye is firmly on the SuperBowl and another ring, you can be sure. Plus, Carolina is done. Their offense has completely sputtered regardless of who’s running it, and the Bucs should win this one with their defense and a quarter or so of Brady and Co. Too risky for me with so many competitive options on the slate.

Braxton Berrios, NY Jets at Buffalo

He’s been a mainstay of my bargain article the last few weeks and he’s been worth the price every game lately. However, the Jets are likely getting a few guys back this week, and even if Berrios remains the favorite target of Zach Wilson, Buffalo is going to have something to say about it. The Bills are one of my favorite offenses to target, but also one of the best defenses (in reality and fantasy). They allow the second-fewest points per game, fewest fantasy points per game, and are the No. 1 defense when it comes to fantasy points allowing to QB and WR.

Packers

You might take a flier on the Packers D/ST or Patrick Taylor as a cheap RB option in GPP lineups, but the Packers are resting their starters and it’s impossible to predict who might get a lucky score or seven catches. I tend to stay away from these value propositions unless there is a clear path to opportunity and (hopefully) some demonstrated ability to make good on it. Keep your eye on the news as the weekend progresses to see if any such players materialize but in the meantime, focus on those you know are motivated to play and win.

Bengals

The Bengals haven’t formally committed to resting their starters, but with Joe Mixon on the COVID list and Joe Burrow likely taking a week to get back to 100 percent before the playoffs. The team can improve its seeding, but it would require Kansas City and Indianapolis to lose, which seems unlikely. That leaves guys like Ja’Marr Chase, who has been phenomenal, on the outs from my perspective. Even if he plays, which seems silly, he’ll probably have Brandon Allen throwing to him, which is not ideal. Again, you can speculate on potential value plays here for tournament fliers, but the safe route is to use motivated starters in your lineups this week.

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Players I like, but who are expected to have high ownership in Week 18 include: Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Jonathan Taylor, Alvin Kamara, Cooper Kupp, DK Metcalf, Stefon Diggs, Mark Andrews, Zach Ertz, Colts D/ST, Bills D/ST, Titans D/ST. You might consider deviating away from this player pool and pivoting in large GPPs if you’re after a more unique lineup.