Welcome to the Fantasy Football Forecast! My goal with this weekly column is to get you actionable information as quickly as possible, regardless if you're playing season-long fantasy, DFS, or are grinding player props. If you're just looking for fantasy football rankings and only have 10 minutes to skim through for your sit/start decisions, then head over to the "Forecast" sections below where I project each player's PPR finish based on a 12-team league. But if you want to get your research on, then I have full player breakdowns. As always, hit me up on Twitter @HaydenWinks if you have questions.
Ravens (30 projected points, -15.5 spread) vs. NYJ
Lamar Jackson is the QB1 overall on the season, and there’s nothing about the matchup to move him off that ranking this week. The Jets’ No. 2 run defense DVOA will affect the running backs more than Lamar because their ranking stems from interior defenders Folorunso Fatukasi, Steve McLendon, and Quinnen Williams (doubtful), while Lamar does most of his damage off the edge… Mark Ingram’s individual matchup is a tough one, but the Ravens’ 30-point team total and Ingram’s 12-18 touch projection are more than enough to keep him squarely in the RB2 mix. It’s worth noting that more than half of Ingram’s rushing yards and touchdowns have come off tackle or off the edge, which avoids where the Jets are strongest on the defensive line.
You and I have more receiving yards than Marquise Brown over the last two weeks (-1). And that negative one receiving yard is barely worse than his air yards (1) over that same span. Brown’s usage and production have completely tanked. The rookie is impossible to trust, but his weekly upside keeps him in the dart throw WR3/4 range, especially with S Jamal Adams doubtful to play… Willie Snead, Seth Roberts, and Miles Boykin are next in the receiving pecking order… When healthy, Mark Andrews is the true No. 1 on the team, but he left last week with a knee issue and could be on a snap count given the point spread. With a high team total and with Adams doubtful, Andrews should still be a worthwhile TE1 with touchdown upside even if he plays fewer snaps than normal. I’m merely dropping the TE4 overall on the season down to the TE6-10 range with the injury concern. If Andrews is ruled out, Hayden Hurst and Nick Boyle will inherit some of Andrews’ 23% target share and red-zone equity as low-end TE2 streamers.
Jets (14.5, +15.5) @ BAL
Sam Darnold is the starting quarterback for a team projected for 14.5 points against the second-best defense against fantasy quarterbacks… Le’Veon Bell is a better bowler than a fantasy asset at the moment. To be fair, a 251 score with the flu is very impressive. Anyways, Bell will need to catch garbage-time dump offs to pay off as an RB2/3 because he’s averaging a league-worst 3.2 yards per carry behind PFF’s 30th-ranked run-blocking offensive line.
High-end usage in games against the Bengals and Dolphins revitalized Robby Anderson over the last two weeks, but this is a spot to bet against Anderson. Darnold should be under pressure a lot, which should limit shots downfield. The Ravens are also extremely tough defensively, ranking third in pass-defense DVOA. Anderson is a boom-or-bust WR4… Jamison Crowder has just as tough of a matchup as Anderson in the slot and doesn’t have the upside or usage Anderson has. Crowder isn’t a recommended start, even in deep season-long leagues. Crowder has reached my “10 PPR Expected” line just once in the last six games… Demaryius Thomas is doubtful… Ryan Griffin was ruled out. Daniel Brown is his backup if you care (hint: you shouldn’t care).
The rest of the Week 15 Fantasy Forecast will be posted on Friday. In the meantime, you can follow me on Twitter @HaydenWinks.