With so much money being exchanged, these weekly lines are really, really tough to beat. I can confidently say at least 95% of football fans would win between 45% to 55% of these game bets (sides or over/unders) over time. It’s just the reality of such an efficient market. With that said, I think there are some ways to barely increase our chances of churning a marginal profit. As you guys know, Rotoworld is the king of grinding news. That’s something the public doesn’t do as well as a Rotoworld blurber, so it’s going to be one of the common things I utilize in this column, in addition to advanced stats and film... Notes: My 2019 Best Bets are 37-27-1 (58%). Lines are taken from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Texans +3 (-110) vs. Titans
I wanted to pick the over, but it’s already been bet up to 51 points. That’s alright because the Texans are still three-point underdogs. The Titans secondary is currently without CBs Malcolm Butler (wrist, IR) and Adoree' Jackson (foot, out), and LeShaun Sims (ankle, out Weeks 13-14) will be returning off an injury. It’s a major weakness, one that Deshaun Watson will be exploiting, especially with Will Fuller (hamstring) expected to return.
Dolphins vs. Giants OVER 46.5 Points (-110)
DeVante Parker, Allen Hurns, and Albert Wilson were all able to get in full practices on Friday, an indication that Ryan Fitzpatrick will have a full complement of weapons on Sunday. The Giants will also be without CB Janoris Jenkins (cut) and S Jabrill Peppers (injured) and were already one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. On offense, the Giants proved somewhat capable with Eli Manning at quarterback thanks to the depth of his receivers -- Sterling Shepard, Golden Tate, and Darius Slayton.
Patriots vs. Bengals +10 (-110)
The Patriots Offense is extremely concerning, but the market hasn’t quite reacted to that yet. It’s hard for people to call Tom Brady a below-average starting quarterback right now, so there’s value on the table. The Bengals with Andy Dalton under center are still awful, although I’d call them improved in recent weeks. Their defense has allowed 17 or fewer points in three of their last four games, and the offense had the third- and fourth-best expected points game of the season in the two most recent games.
Rams vs. Cowboys OVER 49 Points (-110)
This matchup features two offenses with their backs against the wall. They’ve both tinkered with their offenses throughout the season, but one thing has remained pretty constant -- both teams play fast. As you can see above, the Cowboys and Rams are in the top five in neutral-situation offensive pace. With Dak and Goff having all of their main skill position players healthy, I’m expecting a shootout in Dallas.
Colts vs. Saints UNDER 46.5 Points (-110)
There are a lot of injuries to go over in this matchup, enough of them for me to worry about a sloppier-than-normal game for both teams. The Colts may force T.Y. Hilton into playing, but he won’t be 100% and easily could be ruled out completely, which leaves marginal talents Zach Pascal and Jack Doyle as the top pass catchers with Eric Ebron and Parris Campbell sidelined. Indy will likely rely on a slow-paced, run-heavy attack with Marlon Mack. The Saints may also have two offensive linemen out once again and are just hoping Jared Cook (concussion) can get cleared in time. To make matters worse, New Orleans sent DE Marcus Davenport and DT Sheldon Rankins to injured reserve. That’s a lot of backups in starting spots.
If you’re looking for more team breakdowns, read my Week 15 Fantasy Football Forecast column. It’s nearly 10,000 words and has a bunch of graphs that could be utilized in the betting markets.