Week 14 pressing fantasy football questions: Will any Eagles see their stock rise with Jalen Hurts?
1 - Does anyone on the Eagles benefit from QB change to Jalen Hurts?
In Wednesday's advanced metrics notebook, we looked at why we shouldn’t look at Jalen Hurts as a Taysom Hill-type starter who is a question mark as a passer. Even if he’s a great runner in his own right, Hurts’ final season collegiate resume as a passer is too good for that nonsense.
This is a quarterback and a potentially good one at that. Period.
It’s clear that Hurts’ presence is about to add some juice to this offense, both on the ground and through the air, while simultaneously providing Carson Wentz with a much-needed absence. Yet, it’s not clear which, if any, skill position player is set to benefit from this swap and possible upgrade.
And the reason why we aren’t sure how to divvy up any stock boosts goes to the very core of why the Eagles find themselves in this mess.
History would tell us that a dynamic dual-threat quarterback entering the offense would incentivize the coaching staff to add new wrinkles to the playbook set to maximize the numbers advantage a runner behind center brings. That hasn’t been the case, however, in the brief moments we’ve seen Hurts at quarterback this season. Essentially, when Hurts has been deployed, Doug Pederson and co. have acted like Carson Wentz is still out there. Maybe we’ll see something entirely different in Hurts’ first start but I tend to doubt it.
That, and the fact Pederson has waited so long to make this switch despite Wentz deteriorating before our eyes makes you wonder if the head coach was ever behind the Hurts pick to begin with.
[Week 14 Fantasy Rankings: QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | FLEX | DST | Kickers]
We know based on Howie Roseman’s history that he loves to stockpile quarterbacks. But was Pederson ever interested in putting the time into developing a young player when he already had “his guy?” We already watched last winter when Pederson told the media he wasn’t going to make any staff changes only to watch that same staff get gutted while a bevy of new cooks was added to that kitchen in the following weeks. If he was overridden on that call, it’s not out of the question Roseman drafted Hurts without Pederson’s full buy-in.
Even if Pederson was willing to (and did) design a creative run-focused attack engineered to take advantage of Hurts’ legs, is there a soul out there brave enough to give a possible bump to Miles Sanders as a result? The same running back who has logged a combined 18 touches over the last two games? That’s a stretch.
The mistakes have started to add up for Sanders. I think drops are an overrated talking point when analyzing wide receiver play and not nearly the needle-mover people think but still, you can’t expect to keep getting reps at the RB spot when you’re letting almost a third of your targets slip through your fingers — and that’s exactly what’s happened with Sanders. He sports a near 30 percent drop rate on the year (per PFF). Sanders saw his passing work slashed against Green Bay, failing to record a catch and running a route on 47 percent of the dropbacks. Against the Saints and their second-ranked run defense by DVOA, you’re not looking for a bounce back.
So, if the juice isn’t coming in the ground game, perhaps Hurts’ impact will be felt in his underrated throwing ability ... a possibility if he played for almost any other team. Trusting an Eagles wide receiver is an even dicier proposition than putting faith in Sanders. The team continues to baffle every logical observer with their insistence to play Alshon Jeffery at the expense of mid-season revelation, Travis Fulgham. They’ve run the exact same routes (43) over the last two games. Pederson has made many mistakes in 2020 but that one hurts the brain the most. Jalen Reagor continues to get the most playing time among the outside guys, but his route-running is a mess right now and the stats might be even worse.
If Hurts’ presence helps anyone at all, it’s Dallas Goedert. The tight end already leads the team by a decent gap in targets (23) and routes run (106) over the last three weeks. This information doesn’t help all that much, as fantasy managers know that tight end is such a wasteland that Goedert is a must-start even if he isn’t hitting his most optimistic projections. Maybe Hurts unlocks his ceiling a bit more if he moves the ball into the scoring area more than a handful of times per contest.
We should all be excited to see Jalen Hurts. We should be optimistic he’ll do well with his chance here, even in a chaotic environment, and make the Eagles’ offseason decisions a bit more interesting. However, when it comes to using him as a marker mover in the production stock watch, we need to see how start No. 1 goes. Monitor how he disperses the ball, who plays the most alongside him, and then act when the Eagles get Arizona and Dallas in Weeks 15 and 16. Those opponents are far less intimidating than New Orleans.
2 - Is there a fix for Seattle’s offense?
After what we saw in the first half of 2020, it would have been hard to ever imagine Russell Wilson stuck in the middle of a four-game stretch where he’s thrown just four touchdown passes. And yet, here we are.
The Seahawks are no longer in full “Let Russ Cook” mode. Their early-down rushing rate is up and the offense is dipping down to eighth in weighted DVOA (accounts for recent performances). It’s easy to point to Pete Carroll’s antiquated views with the running game on faux-balance but some of the change is deserved. Carroll pointed out this week that some of the pressure and sacks Seattle suffered through in Week 13 is the fault of his quarterback. He’s not wrong. Wilson has been sacked 16 times, thrown three picks, and fumbled four times the last four weeks.
Chaos is back in the Seahawks but Carroll is right: Wilson is creating some of that chaos. You’re going to close the kitchen when Russ keeps burning the entrees.
The conservatism isn’t the only problem, and neither is Wilson missing the mark on a handful of plays. The system doesn’t really make his life either. This team is almost completely a vertical passing game. The only short routes they work are DK Metcalf getting off press via a quick slant or Tyler Lockett streaking over the middle on crossers. But those plays are few and far between. You don’t see the type of screens, bunched formations, or layups that a team like the Rams or 49ers afford their quarterback. In my opinion, you could ask Metcalf or Lockett to do that work, but they don’t.
Even if Seattle deployed them there, you have to ask whether Wilson would take those layups when he’s just been more comfortable his entire career working deep and outside the numbers. The last two defenses they’ve played in the Rams and Giants knew it too. Those two defenses played a bunch of two-deep looks to block out the vertical game, inviting the running game and not worrying about Wilson attacking the middle of the field. Their gamble was obviously rewarded.
None of this matters for projecting Week 14. No matter what they do, Seattle should stomp the Jets. If they don’t, then these questions turn from a calm conversation to a panicked shouting match.
So is there a fix? No doubt; there are ways to solve this. It’s just up to the coaching staff to see it, implement concepts the Seahawks haven’t in years, and the quarterback to tweak his approach just a bit. There’s still time left in the season — but it’s not a minor ask.
3 - Will Browns vs. Ravens Part 2 go differently?
Yes. Yes, it will go differently.
Given the expectations Baltimore carried into 2020, the fact they currently fall into the ninth position in the AFC playoff picture, and therefore out of the dance, is a massive disappointment. This team has faced some COVID and injury-induced adversity but there’s no doubt their on-field product has helped dig this hole.
You’d think that a victory-needy team like the 7-5 Ravens would be delighted to see a team that they crushed 38-6 earlier this season but they’re probably not. So much has changed about both this Ravens squad and the Cleveland Browns since their Week 1 game that feels approximately 100 years ago. That’s reflected in the fact that BetMGM has Baltimore as a mere two-point favorite.
With the Ravens defense suddenly stocked with several of their front-line guys back from the COVID list, it doesn’t look like this matchup is the type where we can expect Baker Mayfield to thrive. We’re only hyped about him when it’s a poor pass rush. However, Jarvis Landry might be a short-area asset to trust, give he’s looking healthy and has 21 targets over the last two weeks.
When Baltimore has the ball, look for them to keep things simple. There’s not a huge gap between him and the rest of the backs but J.K. Dobbins does have the top job locked-in, playing a team-high 21 snaps last week. He just won’t find the same hilariously large running lanes Dallas provided when the Browns are on defense. The passing game will be happy to see Mark Andrews back from the COVID list and needs to continue to build on the momentum with Marquise Brown. Perhaps his disappointing sophomore season is finally turning around with eight targets and touchdowns in back-to-back games.
If Baltimore can’t pull off the sweep over Cleveland with a Week 14 win, they’re going to be in trouble. They have a couple of theoretical gimmes left on the schedule with home games against the Jaguars and Bengals. But that road trip to face the Giants suddenly doesn’t look so simple. Fantasy managers and Ravens backers desperately need them to cruise over the Browns here. It’s just difficult to project anything close to that given how these teams have developed since their last meeting.
4 - Can Jonathan Taylor pick up more momentum?
The Colts rookie running back has enjoyed his two best 2020 outings over his last two games with a stint on the COVID list sandwiched between them.
After handling 26 touches amid a tone-setting performance in the Colts Week 11 win over the Packers, Taylor put his foot on the gas in Week 13 with 135 total yards against the Texans. He was absolutely electric for the team out in space. You can clearly point to those to opponents and cry, “But the matchups!” as the reason for his production. That’s fair; the Packers and Mike Pettine just love to invite teams to run on them while the Texans have been the worst run defense in the NFL all year.
Nevertheless, if you watch the last few games, Taylor seems to finally be trusting his vision and hitting holes with confidence. The offensive line performance is slowly starting to get right as well, with the team climbing from the NFL’s basement to 27th in adjusted line yards. Anthony Constanzo is practicing this week too, hopefully patching a hole at the left tackle spot.
Also, it’s not as if the matchup this week is any more intimidating. The Colts should steamroll a Raiders defense that ranks 31st in DVOA against the run. Then they’ll turn around and face the Texans again in Week 15.
Taylor building on his current momentum suddenly feels like something the Colts need, rather than a luxury. Philip Rivers continues to keep the ship mostly afloat but the cracks are showing with the news he’ll likely need offseason surgery on his foot.
As the Colts sit in the final seed in the AFC playoff picture — a spot they would instantly lose to Vegas if they fall short in Week 14 — it’s clear they need more juice. They need Jonathan Taylor to be the defining offensive piece they had in their minds when he was drafted. In the process, fantasy managers might just get the player they thought they were taking in the early rounds back in August.
5 - Did Antonio Brown throw the Bucs down the regression hole?
Through the first month of the season, it was fine to say “give this team some time,” when analyzing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. After all, Tom Brady was adjusting to new receivers, a new head coach, and clearly, an entirely new approach to football.
The results in September weren’t ideal. The first two games especially were middling for Brady with three touchdowns to three picks and fewer than 6.5 yards per attempt. We expected this team to take some time to gel, and that’s exactly what happened. But by the time the calendar flipped, the story was different.
From Weeks 4-8 (October through the first week of November), Brady and the passing offense were on fire. He threw 14 touchdown passes and just one interception and boasted a strong 8.4 adjusted yards per attempt. The Bucs took down the Packers with ease, put on a passing fireworks show against the Raiders, and eked out a Monday Night Football win over a Giants defense we now know is one of the most underrated units in the league. Their only true slip up was a Thursday night slugfest with the Bears.
It looked like the gel was finally solidified; the ship would sail on to the promised land Brady was so used to inhabiting.
The last four games, however, have burst that bubble. A whipping at the hands of the Saints was just the beginning of the nightmare. The Bucs are 1-4 since Week 9 and the passing efficiency has all but evaporated. Brady has eight touchdowns to seven picks and sports an ugly 5.8 adjusted yards per attempt. He ranks outside the top-20 quarterbacks in EPA per play.
We’re suddenly back to wondering why Brady isn’t on the same page with all of his receivers. The discourse is once again centered on his fit in Bruce Arians’ offense and both camps appear to be leaking their own thoughts outside the building. You’re absolutely kidding yourself if you think you can project more than one, much less all of their pass-catchers to hit a fantasy ceiling in a single week.
Of course, he’s far from the only problem on the team — the offensive line has started to crack against good defensive lines and Tampa Bay’s own stop unit is sprouting leaks — but it’s no coincidence the last four games coincide with Antonio Brown entering the offense.
Brady and Brown haven’t formed a connection, which isn’t surprising. The duo is covered like they have some great bond but they only had a cup of coffee together in New England before Brown was run out of town. Brady also seems like he’s trying too hard to make it a thing at the expense of established guys like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
You can’t even begin to mount an argument that Brown has made the Bucs better. But you can sure make a case he’s sent the team regressing back to the same old problems that haunted them in September.
