Week 13 Fantasy Football Forecast

Hayden Winks
Rotoworld

 

Pace Week 13
Pace Week 13

 

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Welcome to the Fantasy Football Forecast! My goal with this weekly column is to get you actionable information as quickly as possible, regardless if you're playing season-long fantasy, DFS, or are grinding player props.  If you're just looking for fantasy football rankings and only have 10 minutes to skim through for your sit/start decisions, then head over to the "Forecast" sections below where I project each player's PPR finish based on a 12-team league. But if you want to get your research on, then I have full player breakdowns. As always, hit me up on Twitter @HaydenWinks if you have questions. 

 

 

Teams are listed in order of their Vegas projected team points.

Page 1: KC, PHI, GB, BAL, SEA, CAR, LAR, JAX, NE

Page 2: TB, IND, MIN, NYJ, ARI, LAC, HOU, CLE, OAK

Page 3: TEN, SF, PIT, NYG, CIN, MIA, DEN, WAS

Thanksgiving: NO, DAL, ATL, CHI, BUF, DET

 

Before we get further, make sure to check on the weather this week. Lots of games can be affected. Here is Connor Allen's weather report.

 

Chiefs (30.5 projected points, -10 spread) vs. OAK

Update: Damien Williams is out, so LeSean McCoy will start while Darrel Williams rotates in behind. ... There is also some wind in the forecast. I'll be paying attention to that on Sunday morning.

Forecast: Patrick Mahomes QB1, LeSean McCoy RB1/2, Darrel Williams RB4, Tyreek Hill WR1, Sammy Watkins WR3, Demarcus Robinson WR5, Travis Kelce TE1

KCOAK
KCOAK

Patrick Mahomes has averaged 340 yards and 3.3 touchdowns in his three starts against Oakland. Mahomes is the QB1 overall this week with LJ playing the much tougher Bay Area defense. … Damien Williams (ribs) was unable to practice Wednesday after the bye week, so LeSean McCoy is looking like the Chiefs’ starter this week. If Shady is the starter, he’ll be an upside RB1/2 as 10-point home favorites in an elite matchup. In his two starts with Williams sidelined, McCoy had 80 and 89 total yards with at least one touchdown in each game. Darrel Williams and potentially rookie Darwin Thompson would rotate in behind McCoy. I’ll have a Saturday update if Williams’ gets a practice in. 

KCAY13
KCAY13

Tyreek Hill practiced this week after leaving the last game early. Tyreek is an obvious top-five WR1 against the very worst defense at preventing 20+ yard plays. Sign me up for Mahomes to Hill stacks in DFS. … Sammy Watkins has been held to under 65 yards in every game since his 9-198-3 game in Week 1. He’s beyond due for a “boom” week, but his recent-week usage gives him a lower floor than other WR3 options. Watkins is a positive touchdown regression candidate, one that I’d want exposure to in DFS tournaments. He hasn’t scored in his last seven healthy games. … Demarcus Robinson ran a route on 72% of dropbacks last week and has at least 30 routes in back to back weeks. He’s at least on the field and has the best passing QB in the league, so he’s a viable WR4 dart throw in a fantastic matchup. … Travis Kelce has 168, 62, and 107 yards with three touchdowns in his last three games against Oakland. Kelce is obviously the TE1 overall with the Raiders checking in as a bottom 12th percentile defense against fantasy tight ends. 

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Eagles (27, -9) @ MIA

Update: Jordan Howard is out. Miles Sanders will get another crack at starting. ... Zach Ertz (hamstring) is questionable. Dallas Goedert would be a mid-range TE1 with upside if Ertz is out.

Forecast: Carson Wentz QB1, Miles Sanders RB2, Jay Ajayi RB4, Alshon Jeffery WR3, Zach Ertz (questionable) TE1, Dallas Goedert TE1/2

PHIMIA
PHIMIA

Carson Wentz has struggled mightily with horrendous pass-catching support, but his accuracy is to blame as well. Luckily Wentz will have Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor back and gets the 30th defense against quarterbacks this week. Wentz is a low-end QB1 with upside as the quarterback of the team projected to score the second-most points of the week (27). … Jordan Howard hasn’t been cleared for contact yet, so Miles Sanders (85% snaps last week) and Jay Ajayi (11%) are likely to carry the load. Sanders has 11 and 12 carries and two and three receptions in his two starts without Howard, but he’s a candidate for more than that since those two starts came in low-scoring losses. Sanders’ 15-20 touch projection makes him a rock-solid RB2 despite the back-to-back bust weeks. Ajayi can’t be started until we see him on the field more.

PHIAY13
PHIAY13

Alshon Jeffery is expected to play in Week 13. Jeffery looks washed on tape but that doesn’t matter too much with his workload (see above) in this ideal matchup. The Dolphins are 32nd in pass defense DVOA and just sent multiple starting DBs to injured reserve. Jeffery is a candidate to have his best game of the season, making him a strong WR3. … Nelson Agholor is also expected to return, but he’s only averaging 18 receiving yards in his seven games with Jeffery in the lineup. … Zach Ertz isn’t likely to see the 11-14 targets he had seen in the last three weeks due to game script, but he’ll still likely be a top-three TE1 on 7-10 targets. His floor is as high as it gets at the position. … Dallas Goedert will likely slide back into his 4-6 target role with Alshon back, but the 27-point team total and his near full-time playing time keep him in the TE1/2 mix. In his last four games with Alshon, Goedert’s averaged a 4/40/0.5 receiving line. 

 

Packers (27, -6.5) @ NYG

Forecast: Aaron Rodgers QB1, Aaron Jones RB1/2, Jamaal Williams RB3, Davante Adams WR1, Allen Lazard WR5, Jimmy Graham TE2

GBNYG
GBNYG

Aaron Rodgers is the most overrated quarterback in the NFL this season, but even I will give him the QB1 label this week. The New York defense, who is now likely without S Jabrill Peppers, is in the bottom 25th percentile in pass defense DVOA and against fantasy quarterbacks. Rodgers should have a ceiling game this week with the Packers’ 27-point team total. … Aaron Jones has between 8-13 carries in 9-of-11 games, adding 3.2 receptions per game. It’s possible that Jones beats those averages this week as 6.5-point favorites this week. After last week’s white-flag loss, coach Matt LaFleur said, “I think we definitely need to involve [Aaron Jones] more.” Jones, who is tied for first in inside-the-10 rushing touchdowns (9) this season, will be on the RB1/2 borderline. … Jamaal Williams’ workload will take a slight step back if LaFleur puts his words into action. Last week, Williams had extra pass-catching opportunities (7 receptions) but is extremely unlikely to reproduce those numbers and snaps with the Packers expected to win by nearly one touchdown. Williams’ projection of 5-10 carries and 2-4 receptions make him an RB3. 

GBAY13
GBAY13

Davante Adams has 11, 10, and 12 targets since his injury. The Giants are 31st against fantasy receivers. He’s an upside WR1. … Allen Lazard is only averaging 4.0 targets since Adams’ return, making him purely a WR5 dart throw in an awesome matchup. … Geronimo Allison (3.0 targets per game) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (2.0) have been even less utilized than Lazard over that span. … Jimmy Graham’s 2.5 receptions and 28.8 yards per game make him a touchdown-dependent TE2. The Giants’ No. 3 defense against tight ends would take a step backward if S Jabrill Peppers is indeed out. 

 

Ravens (25.75, -6) vs. SF

Forecast: Lamar Jackson QB1, Mark Ingram RB2, Marquise Brown WR3, Mark Andrews TE1

BALSF
BALSF

Lamar Jackson is taking defenses’ souls as both a rusher and a passer. This will be his toughest test to date -- yes, even tougher than the Patriots -- because of the 49ers’ edge rushers, willing-to-tackle secondary, and LB Dre Greenlaw. It will be harder to run off-tackle against this defensive unit and the Ravens are without their starting center, so I’m projecting Lamar for way under his 80-rushing yard average. With that said, Lamar is still an elite QB1 with only Patrick Mahomes in the same ballpark. … Mark Ingram is very one-dimensional (only 1.6 receptions per game), which makes him a boom-or-bust RB2, but he’s been booming more often than not thanks to his 0.82 touchdowns per game. Like I just mentioned, I’m a tad worried about the matchup, but Ingram’s 13.9 carries per game and the Ravens’ 25.75-point team total are enough for me to keep him in the RB2 mix, albeit with a lower than usual floor.

BALAY13
BALAY13

Marquise Brown ran a route on 77% of the Ravens’ dropbacks, including the last-minute RGIII plays, so Brown appears to be over his early and mid-season injuries. Brown found the end zone twice against the Ramsey-led Rams but is still only seeing 4-7 targets in most contests. Brown will continue being a boom-or-bust WR3 fantasy asset as an explosive, mid-volume receiver, especially against the 49ers No. 2 passing DVOA defense. No unit has prevented 20+ yard pass plays better than San Francisco. … Mark Andrews wasn’t a part of Lamar’s five-touchdown game last week but should rebound with another 5-8 target game this weekend with the score projected to be a lot closer than normal. Even against the 49ers’ No. 2 defense against tight ends, Andrews is an impossible sit in season-long leagues given the state of the position and his target volume. 

 

Seahawks (25.75, -3) vs. MIN

Update: Chris Carson is "our guy" per the offensive coordinator. I'm moving him up a few spots and Rashaad Penny down.

Forecast: Russell Wilson QB1, Chris Carson RB1/2, Rashaad Penny RB3, Tyler Lockett WR1/2, DK Metcalf WR3, Jacob Hollister TE1/2

SEAMIN
SEAMIN

Russell Wilson is the most boom-or-bust QB1 with the Seahawks willing to establish the run to the detriment of win probability. Only Lamar Jackson has more games as a starter with 25 or fewer pass attempts than Russ, which keeps his floor lower slightly lower than other QB1s. Russell’s ceiling is elite, however, especially at home. The Vikings Defense is talented but that hasn’t necessarily translated to the box score this season (see above) with Minnesota fifth in pass attempts allowed per game (38). Wilson has a path to a ceiling game this week. … Chris Carson’s fumble issues propped up again last week, leading Rashaad Penny to a season-high 14 carries and 129 yards. Coach Pete Carroll said there's "no reason not to get [Penny] back in there" and at least one beat reporter believes the backfield could turn into a “true timeshare” now that Penny has lost 10 pounds. Carroll was more adamant Carson was the starter the last time he fumbled, so I’m projecting this to be closer to a 60/40 split for Carson/Penny. Carson is should still provide upside RB2 value with the Seahawks ranking fifth in rush attempts (33 per game), but last week was a red flag. Penny is a high-upside, low-floor flex play considering the Vikings are a top 10th percentile run DVOA defense.

SEAAY13
SEAAY13

Tyler Lockett remains the most volatile usage receiver in the league. Last week’s two targets were a reminder of his nonexistent floor, but he has a WR1-level ceiling. For the reasons I listed in the Wilson section, this is a week to bet on Lockett hitting a ceiling. The Vikings are in the bottom 9th percentile against fantasy receivers. … D.K. Metcalf’s air yards make him an every-week WR3 with upside, and the Vikings bottom 29th percentile defense against 20+ yard pass plays give him a direct path to that upside this week. … Josh Gordon isn’t seeing enough targets (two each game) to be started in fantasy. … Jacob Hollister has fewer than 5.3 PPR points in 3-of-5 games, but he has higher touchdown equity with Russ than other low-floor TE1/2 options, as we’ve seen in his Week 9 (4-37-2) and Week 10 (8-62-1) games. 

 

Panthers (25.25, -10) vs. WAS

Forecast: Kyle Allen QB2, Christian McCaffrey RB1, D.J. Moore WR1, Curtis Samuel WR4, Greg Olsen TE1/2

CARWAS
CARWAS

Kyle Allen isn’t a starting-level passer and offers absolutely nothing as a runner, so he’s been bad for fantasy. With that said, Allen does have the surrounding talent to have QB2 weeks against bad defenses. The Redskins obviously count. Vegas projects Carolina for 25.25 points this week, so Allen should toss two touchdowns as a forgettable QB2. … Christian McCaffrey is having a historical season. I’m going to get bold and advise playing him against a bottom 25th percentile defense against fantasy running backs. 

CARAY13
CARAY13

D.J. Moore had an awkward arm injury last week in the middle of his 6-126-2 performance but should be ready to go. With WR1-level usage, Moore has turned in four-straight games with at least six receptions and 95 yards. And there’s nothing about the matchup this week to shy away from Moore as a top-10 fantasy receiver as long as he practices Friday. … Curtis Samuels’ air yards have fallen in five-straight games with more production heading Moore’s way. Samuel has been crushed by Allen’s inability to throw deep, giving Samuel absolutely zero floor and unpredictable upside as a boom-or-bust WR4. I’m still expecting one or two more “boom” games this season but your guess is as good as mine as to when that happens. … Greg Olsen has 5-10 targets in four of his last five games, operating as a viable TE1/2 option every week. That should continue against the Redskins’ bottom 25th percentile defense against tight ends. 

 

Rams (25.25, -3) @ ARI

Update: Gerald Everett is out, so Tyler Higbee is a TE1/2 option with upside.

Forecast: Jared Goff QB2, Todd Gurley RB2, Cooper Kupp WR2, Robert Woods WR3, Brandin Cooks WR3/4, Tyler Higbee TE1/2

LARARI
LARARI

Jared Goff and Mason Rudolph have similar stats this season. That’s where we are at right now. Luckily for Goff, who went all of November without a single passing touchdown, he gets the worst defense against fantasy quarterbacks this week and should get his starting right tackle back. Goff still can’t be trusted as a QB1 right now, although he does deserve QB2 streaming consideration. … Todd Gurley was limited to just six carries and three receptions in last week’s demoralizing defeat. It was the rock bottom in an awful season for Gurley, who is averaging a career-low 54 rushing yards per game. Gurley should rebound in the carries department against the fastest-paced offense in the NFL but will remain an RB2 in a usually cold offense. 

LARAY13
LARAY13

Cooper Kupp has fewer than 54 receiving yards in five of the last six games and now will return to competing for targets with Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks. The matchup against the Cardinals’ bottom 12th percentile pass DVOA defense elevates his floor and ceiling, but it’s impossible to trust Kupp as anything more than an upside WR2 with recent volume and production. … Robert Woods’ volume and production have also been all over the place, but he does have two-straight games with at least seven receptions and 96 yards while operating as Goff’s go-to check-down receiver. With Goff projected to drop back more times than normal this week, Woods is a viable WR3 with upside. … Brandin Cooks is by far the Rams receiver I’m most worried about. Goff isn’t throwing the ball deep this season, and Cooks was only targeted four times in his return last week. The Cardinals are allowing the second-most 20+ yard pass plays this season, however, so there is a path to long-touchdown upside as a boom-or-bust flex play. … Gerald Everett (knee, ankle) is day to day and could be limited even if he does suit up Sunday. Everett was also a beneficiary of Cooks’ absence, so it’s fair to knock him out of the low-end TE1 mix for the rest of the season. With that said, Everett undoubtedly has a path to upside against the Cardinals league-worst defense against tight ends. If Everett is out, Tyler Higbee will be a recommended TE2 streamer.

 

Jaguars (25, -1) vs. TB

Forecast: Nick Foles QB2, Leonard Fournette RB1/2, D.J. Chark WR1/2, Dede Westbrook WR3/4, Chris Conley WR3/4

JAXTB
JAXTB

Nick Foles has compiled 296 and 272 garbage-time yards with just two total touchdowns in his two starts. It’s been bad, but he gets a get-right spot against the Bucs’ 31st defense against fantasy quarterbacks. Foles should drop back 35-45 times with Tampa Bay checking in as the biggest pass funnel in the NFL -- they’ve allowed a league-high 42 pass attempts per game to just 23 rush attempts. With three capable pass-catchers plus Fournette, it’s possible Foles hits a ceiling as a QB2 streamer and DFS tournament option. … Leonard Fournette’s run-game matchup is as tough as it gets (see above) but his 5.1 receptions per game keep him in the low-end RB1 mix, especially after last week’s monster two-touchdown performance. 

JAXAY13
JAXAY13

D.J. Chark has an awesome matchup against the league’s worst defense against fantasy receivers. Chark, who is the WR5 overall thus far, should see 7-12 targets as a WR1/2 with upside given Foles’ tendency to throw the ball deep downfield. … Dede Westbrook has six, six, and nine targets in his three games with Foles as a low-aDOT (6.6) check-down option. Westbrook doesn’t have the upside of Chark or even Conley, but his floor makes him a viable WR3/4. … Chris Conley is the most underrated receiver heading into Week 13. He’s cleared the “10 PPR Expected” threshold in five-straight games and just set a new season-high for air yards and targets last week. Conley’s downfield ability gives him DFS tournament upside as an intriguing yet overlooked WR3/4. The Bucs are in the bottom 19th percentile at preventing 20+ yard pass plays. 

 

Patriots (24.25, -3.5) @ HOU

Update: Bill Belichick put everyone on the injury report this week. Classic. So we'll have to track inactives Sunday morning. I think all these receivers will play.

Forecast: Tom Brady QB1/2, Sony Michel RB2/3, James White RB3, Julian Edelman WR1, Mohamed Sanu (questionable) WR4, Phillip Dorsett WR5, Ben Watson TE2

NEHOU
NEHOU

Tom Brady’s 3.4% touchdown rate and 6.7 YPA are his worst since at least 2002, but he remains in the QB1/2 mix his league-leading passing volume. This week’s matchup is an elite one, too. The Texans are in the bottom quarter of the league in just about every passing category and weather won’t be an issue this time around. Brady is a lower-ceiling QB1/2 while game managing a defense-led team. … Rainy and windy weather made last week a “Sony Michel game” which meant 20 carries and 85 scoreless yards. Michel’s efficiency has been awful and he’s losing a dozen or so snaps to Rex Burkhead, so Michel is completely dependent on touchdowns as an RB2/3. …  I expect James White to be more involved this week with the Texans allowing the most receptions to running backs this season, but he has been held to under 76 receiving yards in every game thus far. Burkhead’s presence should keep White’s usage in the 3-6 reception range, making him an RB3 even in PPR leagues.

NEAY13
NEAY13

Julian Edelman is tied for the second-most targets (112) and will continue seeing WR1-level usage despite the Patriots’ added receiving weapons. Edelman is a high-floor WR1 against the Texan’s below-average pass defense. … Phillip Dorsett cleared concussion protocol and should take back his outside role over N’Keal Harry and Jakobi Meyers. Dorsett returning to full-time snaps isn’t guaranteed, however, so I’m fading all three of these receivers until I get more clarity on the depth chart. … Mohamed Sanu (ankle) was close to playing last week and will likely end up as a game-time decision again. If active, Sanu will likely playing at less than 100% and will be dealing with Dorsett and the two rookies. His range of outcomes is very wide, ranging from 0 fantasy points to 10 targets. Treat him as a boom-or-bust WR4. … Ben Watson is a low-volume, touchdown-dependent TE2.

 

Pace Week 13
Pace Week 13

 

Welcome to the Fantasy Football Forecast! My goal with this weekly column is to get you actionable information as quickly as possible, regardless if you're playing season-long fantasy, DFS, or are grinding player props.  If you're just looking for fantasy football rankings and only have 10 minutes to skim through for your sit/start decisions, then head over to the "Forecast" sections below where I project each player's PPR finish based on a 12-team league. But if you want to get your research on, then I have full player breakdowns. As always, hit me up on Twitter @HaydenWinks if you have questions. 

 

Teams are listed in order of their Vegas projected team points.

Page 1: KC, PHI, GB, BAL, SEA, CAR, LAR, JAX, NE

Page 2: TB, IND, MIN, NYJ, ARI, LAC, HOU, CLE, OAK

Page 3: TEN, SF, PIT, NYG, CIN, MIA, DEN, WAS

Thanksgiving: NO, DAL, ATL, CHI, BUF, DET

 

Bucs (24, +1) @ JAX

Forecast: Jameis Winston QB1/2, Ronald Jones RB2/3, Mike Evans WR1, Chris Godwin WR1

TBJAX
TBJAX

Jameis Winston has at least 300 yards in eight of his last nine games, operating as an awful real-life quarterback but low-end QB1 in fantasy. The Jaguars average pass defense doesn’t move the needle either direction, so Winston will remain an upside QB1/2. … Ronald Jones will see 10-16 carries and a few receptions in wins and close losses, but he’s largely game-script dependent with Peyton Barber and Dare Ogunbowale subbing in on a handful of passing downs. This week, RoJo is in decent shape for a flex-worthy game with the Bucs only sitting as a 1-point underdog. The Jaguars have also been completely owned by the run.

TBAY13
TBAY13

Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are every-week WR1s. This matchup doesn’t scream “upside game” with the Jaguars playing slow on offense and allowing a lot of production to running backs, but Evans and Godwin can pop for 150+ yards in any matchup. … O.J. Howard wasn’t completely benched last week -- he ran 20 routes on 33 dropbacks -- but he’s seen one and two targets in his last two games. Howard and Cameron Brate are touchdown-dependent TE2s at best.  

 

Colts (22.75, -2.5) vs. TEN

Forecast: Jacoby Brissett QB2, Jonathan Williams RB2, Nyheim Hines RB4, Zach Pascal WR3/4, Jack Doyle TE1

INDTEN
INDTEN

Jacoby Brissett has 25 or fewer pass attempts in his last three healthy starts with the Colts using Brissett as a complete game manager. Without T.Y. Hilton and Eric Ebron, it’s very hard to envision Brissett hitting any sort of a ceiling. He’s a low-end QB2. … Marlon Mack (hand) is still out, so Jonathan Williams will draw another start. Despite trailing in the game, Williams received 26 carries, rushing for 104 yards and one touchdown. The Titans are in the top 13th percentile in run defense DVOA, but Williams will be a startable RB2 based on volume. Nyheim Hines (33% snaps) and Jordan Wilkins (1% snaps) aren’t very involved.

INDAY13
INDAY13

With no T.Y. Hilton and Eric Ebron, the Colts are desperate for players like Zach Pascal, Marcus Johnson, Chester Rogers, and Jack Doyle to step up. In the three games without Hilton, Pascal had six, seven, and six targets with a reasonable amount of air yards but only managed a 9-119-1 receiving line. Pascal is a buy low flex option with 5-12 targets up for grabs between Hilton and Ebron. … Marcus Johnson (61% routes run last week) and Chester Rogers (58%) will be the secondary options behind Pascal as long as rookie WR Parris Campbell (hand, limited) doesn’t play. Johnson and Rogers are averaging fewer than 6.4 yards per target and are purely WR5 punt plays. Campbell would be more intriguing if he suits up. … Some of Ebron’s 2.8 receptions, 34 yards, and 0.91 red-zone targets per game will flow to Jack Doyle, who has shown TE1-level production without Ebron before. I’m projecting Doyle for 4-7 catches as a low-end TE1 with above-average touchdown equity. 

 

Vikings (22.75, +3) @ SEA

Update: Adam Thielen was able to practice this week. It looks like we'll play.

Forecast: Kirk Cousins QB1/2, Dalvin Cook RB1, Stefon Diggs WR2, Adam Thielen (questionable) WR3, Kyle Rudolph TE2

MINSEA
MINSEA

Kirk Cousins is averaging 288 yards and 2.6 touchdowns over his last seven games and could find himself in a little shootout against Russ, especially if Adam Thielen can get back on the field. Only the Tampa Bay defense has allowed more pass attempts than the Seahawks. Cousins is an upside QB1/2. … Offenses have opted to pass more than run against Seattle, but Dalvin Cook will eat in any game script  -- he’s averaging 19.5 carries and 4.1 receptions per game. Cook is a top-three RB1 with Alexander Mattison operating as the handcuff. 

MINAY13
MINAY13

Adam Thielen (hamstring) had an injury “scare” in practice and will likely be a game-time decision for Week 13. Thielen has upside and will eventually be back in the WR2 mix, but his re-injury risk is too high to rank him that high in his first game back, especially since he was only seeing 5-8 targets per game prior to his injury. Thielen is a boom-or-bust WR3. … Stefon Diggs is my preferred Vikings receiver this week mainly because he’s healthy and has shown a massive ceiling in 2019. With Seattle allowing the second-most pass attempts per game, I’m projecting Diggs for an above-average game as a WR2 this week. … In Weeks 1-6 when Thielen was healthy, Kyle Rudolph averaged 1.5 receptions and 12 yards. Rudolph’s uptick in usage should take a big step backward if Thielen returns, making him a touchdown-dependent TE2. If Thielen misses another game, Rudolph is on the TE1/2 borderline.

 

Jets (22.5, -3.5) @ CIN

Forecast: Sam Darnold QB2, Le’Veon Bell RB1, Jamison Crowder WR3/4, Robby Anderson WR4, Ryan Griffin TE2

NYJCIN
NYJCIN

Sam Darnold has averaged 275 yards and 2.0 touchdowns over his last four games (MIA, NYG, WAS, OAK), and he gets another cupcake matchup against the tanking Bengals. Darnold is a QB2 streamer with Cincy checking in as the 31st pass DVOA defense. … Over that same four-game stretch, Le’Veon Bell has averaged 16 carries and 4.8 receptions while scoring two touchdowns. That’s more than enough usage to keep Bell as a low-end RB1, especially when facing the defense that’s allowed the most rush attempts per game (34) this season. 

NYJAY13
NYJAY13

Robby Anderson finally took advantage of an easy matchup last week but is still only seeing 3-5 targets with modest air yards. Anderson can reach a mini ceiling as the Jets’ deep threat, but he’s purely a WR4 dart throw based on volume and the Jets’ inconsistent offense. The positive for Anderson this week is the Bengals’ bottom 9th percentile defense against 20+ yard passes. … As you can see above, Jamison Crowder has hovered around the “10 PPR Expected” line for most of the season. His air yards and targets dropped in last week’s blowout win but should rebound in what should be a much closer game. Crowder’s 6.8 target average over his last four games make him a nice WR3/4. … Demaryius Thomas is slightly due for a touchdown (382 yards with 0 scores) but can largely be ignored in fantasy since he’s only averaging 5.0 targets over his last five games. … Nobody -- and I really mean nobody -- is being left as wide open as Ryan Griffin in recent weeks. It’s how he’s scored his last two touchdowns, and it’s something I’m not willing to bet on moving forward. Griffin is still only averaging 2.5 receptions per game, making him a touchdown-dependent TE2. 

 

Cardinals (22.25, +3) vs. LAR

Forecast: Kyler Murray QB1, Kenyan Drake RB2, David Johnson RB4, Christian Kirk WR2/3, Larry Fitzgerald WR3/4

ARILAR
ARILAR

Kyler Murray is the QB5 overall on the season and has been trending up in recent weeks -- half of his passing touchdowns have come in the last three weeks. Murray also catches a home game after a bye against a sleepwalking Rams team that got embarrassed by Lamar last week. Murray is a top-six QB1. … When David Johnson asked his coaches about his playing time they said they didn’t have a “defined” role for him yet. That and practice reports have led Cardinals beat reporters to believe Kenyan Drake will be the “main ball carrier” on Sunday. That’s what I’m projecting, too. Drake should see 10-15 carries with a few receptions even with Johnson and Chase Edmonds active. Drake is a boom-or-bust RB2 and I can’t recommend starting Johnson in most season-long leagues. DJ is more of a handcuff until I see otherwise. 

ARIAY13
ARIAY13

Christian Kirk’s usage is all over the place now that he’s moved outside for more of his snaps. That’s allowed him to hit a massive ceiling since his average depth of target has increased with the move but can leave him vulnerable to a lower floor. Kirk also faces CB Jalen Ramsey this week, so he’s a boom-or-bust WR2/3. … Larry Fitzgerald’s air yards since Week 7 are laughably low (see above). Over that span, Larry is averaging four receptions for 33 yards. It’s possible he sees elevated usage with Ramsey on Kirk, but Fitzgerald is a low-ceiling flex play from here on out. … Andy Isabella and the other secondary receivers are just dart throws with the Cardinals using more two-TE sets in recent weeks. 

 

Chargers (20.75, -3) @ DEN

Forecast: Philip Rivers QB2, Melvin Gordon RB2, Austin Ekeler RB2/3, Keenan Allen WR2/3, Mike Williams WR4, Hunter Henry TE1

LACDEN
LACDEN

Philip Rivers is toast. He has the worst touchdown rate of his career and is throwing YOLO balls at an alarming rate. Heading into Denver isn’t doctor’s orders either. The Broncos are a top 13th percentile defense against fantasy quarterbacks and have CB Chris Harris to neutralize Keenan. Rivers is a volume-based QB2 with a low ceiling. … Melvin Gordon has averaged 18.7 carries but just 2.3 receptions over his last three games. He’s turned into a one-dimensional back who relies on rushing touchdowns and chunk gains for fantasy points. As 3-point favorites, Gordon should be fine as a high-end RB2, but the floor is a little lower than others ranked near him. … Austin Ekeler is also one dimensional but obviously relies on pass-game work for production. If Keenan is locked by CB Chris Harris, Ekeler could emerge as a 6-10 target player this week as a viable flex with upside in PPR leagues. Ekeler, of course, has the same chances of busting if the Chargers jump out to an early lead.

LACAY13
LACAY13

Keenan Allen is a volume hog but faces CB Chris Harris who limited Allen to 4-64-0 and 4-18-0 the last two times they’ve matched up. Allen can still beat Harris for a few plays and should still see 6-10 targets, but he’s more of a WR2/3 than WR1/2. … Mike Williams needs to step up -- he hasn’t scored a touchdown yet -- but also gets a difficult matchup. The Broncos are in the top 20th percentile at preventing 20+ yard pass plays and Williams is only seeing deep targets (17.3 average depth of target). Williams is at best a boom-or-bust WR3/4. … Hunter Henry is by far the best pass-catching play of the week in this offense. Henry is averaging 8.2 targets over his last six games and has the easiest individual matchup of the group. Over that six-game span, Henry is the TE1 overall in PPR formats. 

 

Texans (20.75, +3.5) vs. NE

Forecast: Deshaun Watson QB1/2, Carlos Hyde RB3, DeAndre Hopkins WR2, Will Fuller WR3/4, Darren Fells TE2/3

HOUNE
HOUNE

An impossible matchup awaits Deshaun Watson. The Patriots will put a lot of pressure on an inexperienced offensive line, and Watson’s biggest weakness is dealing with sacks. Unlike Dak, Watson gets a home matchup in a dome, but New England has done enough to force every quarterback to be downgraded a few spots in the rankings. Watson’s rushing production while trailing keeps him in the low-end QB1 mix. … Carlos Hyde is only averaging 10.75 carries in losses this season as a game-script dependent flex option. Hyde is a preferred sit against the No. 1 defense versus fantasy running backs.

HOUAY13
HOUAY13

DeAndre Hopkins will battle the league’s best corner in Stephon Gilmore, who has shut down literally every receiver this season. Even Hopkins needs to be downgraded against him, but he should still see 8-12 targets and is capable of winning a few plays per game against elite players. Hopkins can’t be benched in most season-long leagues. … Will Fuller returned in a huge way against the Colts on Thursday Night Football, but where Fuller wins (downfield) is where New England is at its best. I’m a lot more willing to bench Fuller, who is already a boom-or-bust fantasy asset because I expect Fuller to see safety attention on almost every snap. Fuller is a risky WR3/4 for this week only. He’ll be an upside WR2 in other matchups. … Darren Fells is a zero-floor touchdown-dependent TE2/3. 

 

Browns (20.5, -1) @ PIT

Update: David Njoku will not play.

Forecast: Baker Mayfield QB2, Nick Chubb RB1/2, Kareem Hunt WR2/3, Odell Beckham WR2, Jarvis Landry WR2

CLEPIT
CLEPIT

A tough early-season schedule slowed down Baker Mayfield, but he now has three touchdowns in back-to-back games for the first time this season. Mayfield is showing signs again, although expectations this week need to be somewhat tempered. The Steelers limited him to 6.0 yards per attempt two weeks ago and have #RudolphGate narratives to bring the heat against the Browns on Sunday. Mayfield is a QB2 given the circumstances. … Nick Chubb has at least 20 carries in six-straight games, including a 27-carry game against these Steelers in two weeks ago. Chubb’s pass-game role has taken a hit with Kareem Hunt activated, however, which takes away his high floor. Still, Chubb can reach a nice ceiling as the goal-line back with a 15-25 touch projection. Chubb is a low-end RB1. … Kareem Hunt caught six passes against Pittsburgh two weeks ago and should see 4-8 targets once again with the game projected to be close. Hunt’s two-catch game last week will likely go down as an outlier since the Browns won by 17 points. Hunt is a viable flex in PPR leagues. 

CLEAY13
CLEAY13

Jarvis Landry continues to outplay Odell Beckham, but both receivers have seen WR1/2-level usage in recent weeks. Odell is still a positive regression candidate -- he only has two touchdowns and 776 yards -- and is someone I want to continue betting on despite his WR3 numbers. Odell was an inch away from a 4-60-1 line against the Steelers two weeks back. … Jarvis Landry has scored in four-straight games -- that’s obviously unsustainable -- but Landry’s 7-13 target projection keeps him in the WR2 mix even if he’ll regress the rest of the year. … Coach Kitchens said it is “too early to tell” if David Njoku (wrist) will return. If active, Njoku will be an immediate upside TE2 but would face some Minkah Fitzpatrick this week.

 

Raiders (20.5, +10) @ KC

Forecast: Derek Carr QB2, Josh Jacobs RB2, Tyrell Williams WR3/4, Darren Waller TE1

OAKKC
OAKKC

Derek Carr only has one game with three touchdowns and faces a rock-solid pass defense with a below-average Vegas team total (20.25). The Raiders are more likely to try to establish the run like we’ve seen other teams do against Kansas City, so it’s tough to trust Carr as a QB2 streamer this week. Carr only had 198 yards and one touchdown against the Chiefs in Week 2 this season. … The Raiders being 10-point underdogs would usually make me nervous for the game-script dependent Josh Jacobs, but the Chiefs are the worst defense against running backs this season. That’s because teams sell out rushing the ball in an attempt to keep Mahomes on the sideline. Jacobs should see his typical 14-20 touches as an upside RB2. He has 99 rushing yards against KC earlier in the season despite losing 28-10. 

DETAY13
DETAY13

Tyrell Williams’ 4-7 weekly target totals are starting to catch up with him. Williams hasn’t hit 100 yards since Week 1 and hasn’t scored since his Week 8 air yards spike. The deep threat needs to score to pay off as a flex play but that’s asking a bit much against a pass defense that’s in the top 17th percentile against fantasy receivers. Slightly helping Williams’ projection is Hunter Renfrow’s (ribs) expected absence. … Darren Waller also sees a boost with Renfrow ailing. His usage slipped in recent weeks because of the rookie but should slide back into early-season form. The Chiefs’ weakness in the secondary has been against tight ends, too. In Week 2, Waller had a 6-63-0 receiving line on seven targets. That’s a decent projection for the mid-range TE1.

 

Editor's Note: Need an extra edge heading into the fantasy playoffs? Want to dominate in DFS throughout the postseason? Find out how to get the NFL Season Pass, NFL DFS Toolkit and other products for free with our Black Friday sale! Click here to learn more!

 

Pace Week 13
Pace Week 13

 

Welcome to the Fantasy Football Forecast! My goal with this weekly column is to get you actionable information as quickly as possible, regardless if you're playing season-long fantasy, DFS, or are grinding player props.  If you're just looking for fantasy football rankings and only have 10 minutes to skim through for your sit/start decisions, then head over to the "Forecast" sections below where I project each player's PPR finish based on a 12-team league. But if you want to get your research on, then I have full player breakdowns. As always, hit me up on Twitter @HaydenWinks if you have questions. 

 

Teams are listed in order of their Vegas projected team points.

Page 1: KC, PHI, GB, BAL, SEA, CAR, LAR, JAX, NE

Page 2: TB, IND, MIN, NYJ, ARI, LAC, HOU, CLE, OAK

Page 3: TEN, SF, PIT, NYG, CIN, MIA, DEN, WAS

Thanksgiving: NO, DAL, ATL, CHI, BUF, DET

 

Titans (20.25, +2.5) @ IND

Forecast: Ryan Tannehill QB2, Derrick Henry RB1, A.J. Brown WR4, Corey Davis WR5, Jonnu Smith TE2/3

TENIND
TENIND

Ryan Tannehill’s 255 passing yards and 2.0 passing touchdowns get the job done as an every-week QB2, but Tannehill has 38, 37, and 40 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns in his last three games as well. He’s balling. Pass volume is a potential concern against the Colts, who are allowing the 28th-most plays on defense as a result of their run-heavy offense. Tannehill is a high-end QB2. … Derrick Henry has been on the injury report this week, but I expect him to play. Now averaging a career-high 91 yards and 0.9 touchdowns on 19 carries, Henry has entered the every-week RB1 conversation because he has slate-breaking upside and at least 15 carries in every game. 

TENAY13
TENAY13

A.J. Brown is still only seeing 4-7 targets per game in the Titans’ run-heavy offense but is averaging 11.6 yards per target. He’s a stud. Brown deserves more looks, although that’s just wishing at this point. It’s unlikely that his role changes in Week 13 against an average Colts’ pass defense, so Brown remains a volatile WR4. … Corey Davis doesn’t have a game with over six receptions or 92 yards. Davis is a low-ceiling WR5. Brown is the Titans receiver to track. …  Delanie Walker was sent to injured reserve, so Jonnu Smith will be a touchdown-dependent TE2/3 for the rest of the year. Last week, Smith wasn’t even targeted. 

 

49ers (19.75, +6) @ BAL

Forecast: Jimmy Garoppolo QB2, Tevin Coleman RB2/3, Matt Breida (questionable) RB3, Deebo Samuel WR3/4, Emmanuel Sanders WR4, George Kittle TE1

SFBAL
SFBAL

Jimmy Garoppolo has played better in recent weeks but is still only averaging 248 yards and 1.8 touchdowns per game. Heading across the country to face a top 10th percentile defense against fantasy quarterbacks is not the time to bet on Jimmy G as an upside QB2 streamer. … Raheem Mostert will likely be replaced by Matt Breida (ankle) this week as the 1B to Tevin Coleman’s 1A. Breida was able to practice this week and is expected to play. Coleman has seen 12-20 touches regardless of if Breida has played this season but rushing volume is a concern against Baltimore. The Ravens have allowed the fewest rush attempts per game (20) this season. Coleman is a flex option, and I’d be a lot more comfortable with Breida left on the bench. 

SFAY13
SFAY13

Deebo Samuel has taken over Emmanuel Sanders’ spot as the 49ers’ No. 1 receiver,  but the passing attack is prone to low-volume games with Shanahan willing to establish the run with the best of ‘em. Over his last five games, Samuel has two games with at least eight receptions and 100 yards but also has three games with under 51 yards. This week, Samuel should find himself between those numbers with San Francisco projected to be trailing. Samuel is a boom-or-bust WR3. … Emmanuel Sanders is trending in the wrong direction but that’s expected for a 32-year-old receiver coming off injury. With the Ravens’ secondary as a top-five unit in the NFL, Sanders is more of a WR4 than reliable flex. … Broken ankle? That ain’t a problem for George Kittle, who is now averaging 5.8 receptions and 74 yards per game on 10.6 yards per target. Kittle has historically been a lot more utilized with the Niners trailing, so he’ll be a no-brainer top-three TE1 despite the Ravens being a top 13th percentile defense against tight ends.

 

Steelers (19.5, +1) vs. CLE

Update: James Conner is doubtful. ... JuJu Smith-Schuster is out.

Forecast: Devlin Hodges QB3, Benny Snell RB3, James Washington WR4, Diontae Johnson WR4, Vance McDonald TE2

PITCLE
PITCLE

Devlin Hodges will start over Mason Rudolph, but I have zero expectations for this offense. Neither does Vegas (19.75-point team total). … Jaylen Samuels lost his starting job to plotting rookie Benny Snell, who had 21 carries and 98 yards last week against Cincinnati. Snell was not a pass-catcher in college and isn’t likely to catch more than a couple of passes per game in the pros. Snell’s carry total could be stripped from him any game as well, so I wouldn’t force him into the flex this week. This backfield is probably best to avoid until James Conner (shoulder) returns. Conner has practiced in limited fashion thus far. 

PITAY13
PITAY13

JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) hasn’t practiced yet and will likely miss another game. James Washington has more air yards than Diontae Johnson in five-straight games and offers slightly better upside as the deep threat in the offense. Neither receiver is a reliable flex option right now in this struggling offense, even without JuJu, but I’d rather take a shot with Washington than Johnson. … Vance McDonald is averaging 1.9 receptions and 23 yards this season. Last week, McDonald had one reception. He’s barely on the TE2 radar. 

 

Giants (19.25, +6.5) vs. GB

Update: Golden Tate is out.

Forecast: Daniel Jones QB2, Saquon Barkley RB1, Sterling Shepard WR3, Darius Slayton WR4, Kaden Smith TE2

NYGGB
NYGGB

Daniel Jones is a slightly underrated fantasy quarterback because he’s picking up 25 rushing yards and 0.2 rushing touchdowns per start and compiles garbage-time passing production in losses. That’ll be the formula as 6.5-point underdogs against a hot-and-cold Green Bay defense. The rookie will be a QB2. … Saquon Barkley is not fully healthy right now. He’s averaging just 2.8 yards per carry and 6.0 yards per target in his five games since his return. Barkley is still seeing RB1-level volume, but I can’t project top-five production from him right now, even against a bottom 9th percentile defense against fantasy backs. Barkley is a low-end RB1. 

NYGAY13
NYGAY13

Golden Tate is in the concussion protocol. If he plays, he’s in the WR3 mix with his typical 5-10 targets per game. But it’s looking like Tate will likely be out, making Sterling Shepard the No. 1 receiver. … Shepard has exactly nine targets in each of his last four games, which includes his last two games without Tate. The veteran’s rapport with Danny Dimes is shaky, but the volume is bankable, making Shepard a nice WR3 option as long as Tate sits. … Darius Slayton will be back on the boom-or-bust WR4 map if Tate sits. His 13.8-yard average depth of target gives him long-touchdown upside but also makes him prone to a low floor even when he’s starting. The good news is that the Packers are in the bottom 19th percentile at stopping 20+ yard pass plays. … Evan Engram (foot) and Rhett Ellison (concussion) haven’t practiced yet, so rookie Kaden Smith will likely draw another start as a touchdown-or-bust TE2. The Packers are in the bottom 6th percentile against fantasy tight ends.

 

Bengals (19, +3.5) vs. NYJ

Forecast: Andy Dalton QB2/3, Joe Mixon RB2/3, Tyler Boyd WR3, Auden Tate WR4, Tyler Eifert TE2

CINNYJ
CINNYJ

Andy Dalton got his job back from Ryan Finley and walks into a decent home matchup against a middling Jets pass defense. Before getting benched, Dalton was averaging a whopping 43 pass attempts but was doing nothing with them (281 yards and 1.1 touchdowns). There are no reasons to expect that to change. Treat Dalton as a volume-based QB2/3. … Dalton’s return might actually be bad for Joe Mixon, who was seeing 40 yards on 12 carries with Dalton and 93 yards on 21 attempts with Finley. Mixon should find a middle ground between those averages but should struggle against the NFL’s No. 2 run defense. With little touchdown equity, Mixon is low-upside RB2/3.

CINAY13
CINAY13

Tyler Boyd was averaging 6.4 receptions and 67 yards on 10 targets with Dalton but sunk to 4-54 on six targets with Finley. Boyd’s arrow is undoubtedly pointing up with the quarterback change and catches a bottom 16th percentile defense against fantasy receivers. Boyd is a locked-in WR3. … Auden Tate’s 4.3-64-0.2 receiving line in starts with Dalton puts him back on the WR4 map, especially given the nice home matchup. Tate cleared my “20 PPR Expected” threshold in two of his last three games with the Red Rifle. … Tyler Eifert has one game with over 28 receiving yards. I guess he’s a touchdown-dependent TE2, but I wouldn’t bet on a touchdown against Jamaal Adams and company. 

 

Dolphins (18, +9) vs. PHI

Forecast: Ryan Fitzpatrick QB2/3, Kalen Ballage RB4, DeVante Parker WR3, Mike Gesicki TE2

MIAPHI
MIAPHI

Ryan Fitzpatrick has just one game with at least 300 passing yards and just one game with at least three touchdowns. Playing at home against an average pass defense gives him a shot at a decent game, but he’s barely on the two-quarterback league radar with his nonexistent floor. … Kalen Ballage, Myles Gaskin, and Patrick Laird combine for the worst three-back committee in NFL history.

MIAAY13
MIAAY13

DeVante Parker has 10 targets in three-straight games and faces a bottom 12th percentile defense against fantasy receivers. Parker’s 5.5-77-0.3 receiving line over his last six games make him an every-week WR3 with upside. … Allen Hurns was already a full-time player, but Albert Wilson (ribs) is questionable for Week 13 and Jakeem Grant was just placed on injured reserve. Hurns should see 5-9 targets as a forgettable WR5. … Mike Gesicki has at least six targets in four-straight games but has been up-and-down in the box score. With tight end truly a dumpster fire, Gesicki remains an upside TE2 option, even against a top 17th percentile defense against tight ends. Gesicki’s usage and athleticism are simply better than most at the position

 

Broncos (17.75, +3) vs. LAC

Forecast: Brandon Allen QB3, Phillip Lindsay RB2, Courtland Sutton WR3, Tim Patrick WR5, Noah Fant TE1/2

DENLAC
DENLAC

Drew Lock is on the verge of getting starts with the Brandon Allen experiment running its course. … Phillip Lindsay has out-carried Royce Freeman 29 to 10 over the last two games as the clear-cut No. 1 back in Denver. With the quarterback position in flux, I expect Lindsay to handle 14-20 touches per game for the rest of the season even when the Broncos are behind. Lindsay is a low-end RB2 while Freeman is best viewed as a handcuff. 

DENAY13
DENAY13

As many receivers do, Courtland Sutton struggled against CB Tre’Davious White in Buffalo. The good news is Sutton was still seeing WR2-level usage despite the matchup. That keeps Sutton in the WR3 mix this week against another good corner in Casey Hayward. The Chargers are in the top 13th percentile against fantasy receivers. … Tim Patrick and DaeSean Hamilton ran a route on 70-75% of dropbacks last week but can’t be started against top-shelf defenses. … Noah Fant is averaging 3.8 receptions and 54 yards on 7.0 targets since the Emmanuel trade. Fant has been very hit-or-miss on his looks (7.4 YPT) but offers upside given his elite athleticism and the lack of quality pass-catchers on the roster. Fant is a TE1/2 for the rest of the season. 

 

Redskins (15.25, +10) @ CAR

Forecast: Dwayne Haskins QB3, Adrian Peterson RB4, Derrius Guice RB4, Terry McLaurin WR3/4

WASCAR
WASCAR

Dwayne Haskins is averaging 177 yards and 0.7 passing touchdowns in his three starts. … Adrian Peterson and Derrius Guice each had 10 scoreless carries in Week 12 and should continue splitting work in a disastrous offense. Even against Carolina’s 31st run DVOA defense, neither back can be started in season-long leagues. The Redskins’ team total (15.25) is just too low. … Chris Thompson (toe) should be returning soon after practicing last week.

WASAY13
WASAY13

Terry McLaurin set career-highs in air yards and targets last week and enters Week 13 as a buy-lo receiver. McLaurin should see 7-12 targets as a boom-or-bust WR3/4. The Panthers are an efficient pass defense but are in the bottom 29th percentile at stopping 20+ yard pass plays. There’s a path to a mini ceiling. … Rookie Kelvin Harmon ran a route on 22 of 35 dropbacks last week and is at least on the WR5 radar after seeing six high-aDOT targets. Harmon, of course, has zero floor. 

 

Editor's Note: Need an extra edge heading into the fantasy playoffs? Want to dominate in DFS throughout the postseason? Find out how to get the NFL Season Pass, NFL DFS Toolkit and other products for free with our Black Friday sale! Click here to learn more!

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