Updated 11/29 at 11:00 AM ET. Ticked Carson Wentz down.
Week 12 Quarterbacks
QB Notes: Kyler Murray was noticeably bothered by his shoulder after injuring it against the Seahawks, but he never came out of the game. It was a good time for the Cardinals’ “mini bye.” The Patriots just got sliced and diced by fellow dual threat Deshaun Watson. … Patrick Mahomes is averaging 379 yards over his past three starts. The Bucs will be the best defense Mahomes has faced all season, but it’s impossible to find reasons to fade Mahomes out of the top three. … The skies have grown more turbulent for Russell Wilson, who has turned the ball over three-plus times in 3-of-5 starts. He’s also been held below 250 yards passing in back-to-back contests. Chris Carson (foot) should return for Monday’s game against the Eagles, hopefully helping Wilson by making his offense less predictable. A provider of multiple scores in 9-of-10 starts, Wilson’s floor is sky high while his ceiling is ever present. … Not a good defense, the Chargers let Joe Flacco convert a number of Week 11 deep shots. Josh Allen is proving predictably volatile, though both his floor and ceiling far exceed his 2019 baselines. BUF/LAC comes with a 53.5 over/under.
Opposing Allen will be Justin Herbert, who checks in as the QB4 by average points. Herbert is frankly playing at an MVP level. Slowed by no one except the Dolphins, Herbert will not be stopped by the Bills’ milquetoast defense. … The QB7 by average points on the year, Deshaun Watson is the QB6 over the past five weeks despite a wind-ruined effort in Cleveland. He is going to dismantle Matt Patricia’s pillow soft unit on Thanksgiving. … The Colts presented Aaron Rodgers’ first real test in over a month. He shredded them, completing 71.1 percent of his passes for 311 yards and three scores. The Bears are another bottom-five fantasy matchup, so in talent we trust. … The Steelers have changed their offensive approach over the past three weeks, passing far more often in neutral game script. Ben Roethlisberger has responded by taking advantage of his elite receiver trio to post the fourth most quarterback fantasy points since Week 9. The Ravens, who held Big Ben to 182/2 in Week 8, will be a much tougher matchup than what Roethlisberger has been dealing with, but they are beleaguered and undermanned by COVID-19.
Coming off his second best passing effort of the season, Cam Newton gets a Cardinals Defense that is below average against the run and springing leaks vs. the pass. Only the 49ers and Eagles have permitted more QB rushing yards. … Why is Newton ahead of Taysom Hill? What are you really hoping for from Hill? A Cam Newton effort. Hill’s deep ball is not ready for prime time, but he did just fine with his power running and Michael Thomas targets. It did come against an awful defense. Vic Fangio’s unit is a stiffer outdoor test for Week 12. There is simply no way to fade Hill’s rushing floor after he proved more competent than expected as a passer. … As poorly as he’s playing, Lamar Jackson is the QB12 by average points over the past five weeks. The Steelers are vulnerable to big plays in the passing game, something Jackson theoretically provides. His legs have also taken on far greater importance with J.K. Dobbins and Mark Ingram on the COVID-19 list. This could be an overly conservative ranking. There is just no way to un-see the number of missed connections Jackson has had with Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews.
Tom Brady has a 0.0 passer rating on 20-plus yard attempts over his past four games. That is not a misprint. Bruce Arians thinks the most accomplished quarterback of the 21st century is having trouble reading defenses. Grim stuff. Brady’s Week 12 case is in the form of a 55.5 over/under, though the Chiefs have allowed just 14 passing scores in 10 games. … Carson Wentz has basically tattooed “bench me” on his forehead. Were the Eagles playing any other team for Week 12, fantasy managers would have no choice. But they are playing the Seahawks, who despite recent signs of defensive life remain far and away the league’s most giving secondary. … Derek Carr has six touchdowns in two starts against the Chiefs and 13 across eight vs. everybody else. The Falcons are a pristine matchup, but Carr has been where upside goes not to tread. … Stinking up the joint far too often in 2020, Matt Ryan will lack QB1 appeal if Julio Jones’ hamstring injury looks like it is going to have him on a snap count against the Raiders. … Teddy Bridgewater should be able to reach two touchdowns vs. a Vikings Defense that just revived Andy Dalton.
Philip Rivers has three three-TD efforts over his past five starts. He’s a perfectly fine QB2 against a bad defense like Tennessee’s. … Allowed to pass again in recent weeks, Jared Goff has a plus matchup in the 49ers’ injury-ruined defense. The problem is, this might be a spot where coach Sean McVay decides to get his running game going. Will the OL allow it? ... No one wants to run more than the Vikings, but circumstance has made Kirk Cousins the QB10 by average points over the past three weeks. The Panthers are terrible against the run, creating real Dalvin Cook risk for QB2 streamers, but with Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson both piping hot, Cousins is worth the upside gamble vs. a fading Panthers Defense. … Ryan Tannehill was held to 147 yards passing against the Colts two weeks ago. He stays in the top 20 because of A.J. Brown’s ability to turn any target into a touchdown. … Matthew Stafford has essentially zero fantasy appeal without Kenny Golladay, even against the Texans’ giving defense. … Floor plays Alex Smith and Andy Dalton have an unappealing Thanksgiving over/under at 46. … Daniel Jones’ rushing threat is real enough that he is not an embarrassing QB2 vs. the Bengals’ amateur D.