Week 11 Fantasy Football Forecast

PaceWeek11
PaceWeek11

Welcome to the Fantasy Football Forecast! My goal with this weekly column is to get you actionable information as quickly as possible, regardless if you're playing season-long fantasy, DFS, or are grinding player props. If you're just looking for fantasy football rankings and only have 10 minutes to skim through for your sit/start decisions, then head over to the "Forecast" sections below where I project each player's PPR finish based on a 12-team league. But if you want to get your research on, then I have full player breakdowns. As always, hit me up on Twitter @HaydenWinks if you have questions.

Teams are listed in order of their Vegas projected team points.

Page 1: OAK, KC, SF, NO, CAR, DAL, BAL (plus bonus Lamar content)

Page 2: MIN, DET, LAC, NE, LAR, IND, BUF, HOU, ATL, TB

Page 3: PHI, JAX, WAS, CIN, NYJ, CHI, MIA, ARI, DEN

TNF: CLE, PIT

Byes: GB, NYG, SEA, TEN

If you are here for the Lamar Jackson rushing data, scroll down to the bottom of the page. Thanks for stopping by!

Raiders (29.75 projected points, -11 point spread) vs. CIN

Forecast: Derek Carr QB1/2, Josh Jacobs RB1, Jalen Richard RB4, Tyrell Williams WR3, Hunter Renfrow WR4, Zay Jones WR5, Darren Waller TE1

OAKCIN
OAKCIN

Derek Carr is having a career season thanks to improved play-calling by coach Gruden. The Raiders’ top 10th percentile passing DVOA offense should shred the Bengals, who are DVOA’s worst passing defense, in terms of efficiency, but volume is a legit concern. The Cincy defense is the biggest run funnel in the NFL, ranking 1st in rush attempts allowed and 30th in pass attempts. I’m expecting Carr to have a nice first half before handing the ball to Josh Jacobs to seal an easy win, making Carr a borderline QB1 with some DFS upside if he catches good luck in the touchdown department. Vegas projects the Raiders for 29.5 points.

Editor's Note: Drafting is only half the battle. Dominate all season long with our Season Pass! Use our NEW Start/Sit Tool, Trade Analyzer, Consensus Rankings, Projections and more on your way to a championship! Click here for more!

JacobsUsage
JacobsUsage

Josh Jacobs is one of the most game script-dependent running backs of 2019. When the Raiders are trailing, Jacobs is not very involved, losing snaps to Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington. But when the Raiders have a lead, Jacobs gets an elite RB1 workload. Well, this week, Oakland is a 10.5-point home favorite against a bottom 9th percentile defense against fantasy running backs. Jacobs is a top-eight RB1 and deserves heavy consideration in DFS. It won’t be a surprise if Jacobs sees 20-30 carries.

OAKAY11
OAKAY11

Tyrell Williams has been very efficient this season (9.7 YPT) but has been pretty reliant on a crazy five-game touchdown streak for fantasy production. Williams isn’t likely to keep his touchdown rate and has a 4-7 target projection on a run-heavy offense. The deep threat is a boom-or-bust WR3/4 most weeks, but he’s a solid WR3 in Week 11 against DVOA’s worst passing defense. … Rookie slot receiver Hunter Renfrow is slowly emerging with seven and five targets over the last two weeks. Renfrow isn’t my type since his aDOT sits at 6.6 yards, but he is at least on the WR5 radar now. … Darren Waller is the TE5 overall since Week 5, averaging 4.2 receptions, 53 yards, and 0.5 touchdowns per game. With the Raiders projected for the most points of the week, Waller is an upside top-four tight end.

Chiefs (28.25, -4) @ LAC

Forecast: Patrick Mahomes QB1, Damien Williams RB1/2, LeSean McCoy (questionable) RB3, Tyreek Hill WR1, Sammy Watkins WR3, Demarcus Robinson WR4, Mecole Hardman WR5, Travis Kelce TE1

KCLAC
KCLAC

Patrick Mahomes came off injury to throw 446 yards and three touchdowns. There is still some injury risk with the MVP but that risk decreases every day that passes. Mahomes is a positive touchdown regression candidate in the second half of the season since he oddly has thrown a touchdown on just 17% of his red-zone pass attempts (league average 24%). Another potential boost for Mahomes is the Mexico City altitude. Mahomes might throw a ball 90 yards. … LeSean McCoy was a healthy scratch last week partially because of fumbles but being 44th out of 47 running backs in PFF’s Elusive Rating isn’t helping either. With Shady sidelined, Damien Williams took on a modified bellcow role, finishing with 19 carries and five targets on 60 offensive snaps, while Darrel Williams and Darwin Thompson were low-touch rotational backs. They can be ignored for now. The question now is if Shady will be active or inactive for Monday Night Football. This is what coach Andy Reid said about Shady’s status moving forward, “We’ll see. I'll just manage him the way I think is best so he stays effective throughout the season.” Damien would be a high-upside RB1/2 if Shady missed again and would still be an upside RB2 if Shady returned because I think he’s earned the 1A gig in this two-back committee. My guess is Shady plays and sees 5-12 touches, but I’m hoping we get more info before Sunday morning.

KCAY11
KCAY11

Tyreek Hill set new season-highs in targets and air yards last week and is obviously an upside WR1. Chargers CB Casey Hayward is good, but he simply doesn’t have the elite (4.57 forty) speed to keep up with Hill who might be the fastest player in the NFL. … It has been 84 years seven games since Sammy Watkins has scored a touchdown. Pretty incredible since the Chiefs are tied for fourth in touchdowns this season. Watkins is due and has 8, 9, and 8 targets in his last three games. Despite the forgettable box scores, Watkins remains an upside WR3 with Mahomes healthy. … Demarcus Robinson (five targets, 71% routes run last week) is a near full-time player, while rookie speedster Mecole Hardman (1, 28%) is a complementary piece. As long as Mahomes is healthy, Robinson is a boom-or-bust WR4. … Travis Kelce has scored a touchdown in his last two games, but he’s still one of the biggest positive touchdown regression candidates because Kelce only has one red-zone touchdown on 14 red-zone targets. Kelce is a top-two overall tight end whenever Mahomes is healthy.

Saints (27.75, -5.5) @ TB

Forecast: Drew Brees QB1, Alvin Kamara RB1, Latavius Murray RB2/3, Michael Thomas WR1, Ted Ginn WR5, Tre’Quan Smith WR5, Jared Cook TE1

NOTB
NOTB

Drew Brees and the Saints Offense came out of the bye and laid the egg of the year. I’m largely forgetting about that game, especially with the biggest pass funnel defense on schedule. The Bucs have allowed the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Brees should carve up the secondary with a full complement of weapons available. He’s obviously a QB1. … Last week’s scoreboard forced the Saints to abandon the run game, but as usual, Alvin Kamara thrived as a receiver finishing with eight reception and 50 receiving yards on 10 targets. Kamara is game script dependent as a mid-range RB1, although I anticipate Latavius Murray to be more involved as a runner now than he was to begin the season. With this set up as a passing week against DVOA’s best run defense, Murray is a risky flex option who should see 7-12 carries, a few receptions, and some goal-line work on a team projected for 28 points.

NOAY11
NOAY11

Michael Thomas is on pace to beat the reception record and is in striking distance of the receiving yards and catch rate records, too. … Ted Ginn and Tre’Quan Smith are low-volume dart throws who need a random long touchdown to pay off as a desperation flex play. The Bucs are in the bottom 16th percentile at preventing 20+ yard pass plays, so this would be an acceptable week to take a shot if need be. … Jared Cook should see more volume than Ginn and Smith after setting new season-highs in targets and air yards last week after the bye. It won’t be a surprise if Cook returns top-8 tight end value down the stretch now that he and Brees are healthy and more familiar with each other. With the Bucs defense allowing the second-most fantasy points to tight ends, Cook is more of a mid-to-low end TE1 with upside than a borderline TE1/2.

SaintsQB
SaintsQB

49ers (27.5, -10.5) vs. ARI

Update: George Kittle and Matt Breida are doubtful, while Emmanuel Sanders gets a questionable tag despite not practicing this week. I think it's more likely Sanders is out than in. Deebo Samuel will be a high-quality flex receiver if Sanders is out. Raheem Mostert would be Tevin Coleman's running mate assuming Mostert can play after being limited in practice all week. Lots of news here.

Forecast: Jimmy Garoppolo QB1/2, Tevin Coleman RB1/2, Raheem Mostert (questionable) RB3, Emmanuel Sanders (questionable) WR3, Deebo Samuel WR3/4, Kendrick Bourne WR5, Dante Pettis WR5, Ross Dwelley TE1/2

SFARI
SFARI

The mixture of Arizona’s fast-paced offense and talent-less defense make them fantasy gold for opposing quarterbacks. Jimmy Garoppolo had his best game against them two weeks ago, throwing for 317 yards and four touchdowns. This matchup is undoubtedly harder because of injuries. George Kittle, Emmanuel Sanders, and Matt Breida are all questionable at best and Joe Staley is definitely out. Unproven talents will have to step up for Jimmy G to earn a QB1 performance. I’ll hedge and call him a QB1/2. Sunday morning updates are important here. … This is a potential ceiling week for Tevin Coleman with matchup, game script, and injuries all on his side. Coleman and Breida combined for 27 carries and 101 yards against Arizona two weeks ago. Raheem Mostert (and possibly Jeff Wilson) will be involved if Breida is out, but Coleman should see 15-25 touches as a borderline RB1/2.

SFAY11
SFAY11

I’m going to assume Emmanuel Sanders and George Kittle miss for this section. ... Deebo Samuel is the top receiver after seeing seven and 11 targets in his last two games. Coach Kyle Shanahan has been scheming him the ball recently, and the rookie has shown playmaking ability as he did at South Carolina. The Cardinals have been a bottom 25th percentile defense against fantasy receivers, making Samuel a nice flex option with a 6-10 target projection. … Kendrick Bourne (8 targets last week), Dante Pettis (3), and Marquise Goodwin (3) would fill in behind Samuel if Sanders is out. I’m not betting on any of them as more than WR5s since they haven’t shown anything this season and San Francisco could just turn into a very heavy run-first offense at any moment. … Ross Dwelley will fill in for the injured Kittle. Last week with Kittle out, Dwelley saw seven targets, which would be more than enough volume to shred the worst defense against tight ends. Dwelley was a very productive receiver in college and has shown enough to stream him as a TE1/2 in this matchup, especially if Sanders and Breida are also out.

Cowboys (28, -4.5) @ DET

Forecast: Dak Prescott QB1, Ezekiel Elliott RB1, Amari Cooper WR1, Michael Gallup WR2/3, Randall Cobb WR4, Jason Witten TE1/2

DALDET
DALDET

Dak Prescott is a top-five fantasy quarterback on the year, and the Lions are in the bottom third in pass defense DVOA and at stopping opposing fantasy quarterbacks. Detroit also traded away their starting safety and might be starting Jeff Driskel, who should provide Dallas with nice field position. Prescott is a mid-range QB1 with upside. … The Cowboys began the season near the top of the league in pass rate on early downs, but they are now in the middle of the pack. For better or worse (definitely, definitely, definitely worse), Dallas is running the ball more often, which is relatively good news for Ezekiel Elliott’s fantasy value. Zeke has averaged 23.3 carries and 3.3 receptions over his last four games, numbers he should clear this week as favorites over the Lions, who are the second-worst team against fantasy running backs. Zeke is an elite (non-CMC) RB1.

DALAY11
DALAY11

Amari Cooper set a new season-high in air yards and tied his season-high in targets last week. He’s now averaging 19.0 PPR points per game with Dak as an every-week WR1. This week’s matchup against the Lions’ bottom 35th percentile defense against fantasy receivers is particularly enticing. … Michael Gallup is coming off a season-high in air yards and is a candidate for another big game this week with the Lions the second-worst defense at preventing 20+ yard passes. Gallup is an upside WR2/3. … Randall Cobb also set a new season-high in air yards last week, but he’s not a recommended flex option in a game unlikely to shoot out as long as Jeff Driskel starts for Detroit. Cobb is a WR4 who is averaging 3.9 receptions per game. … Jason Witten has been a check-down magnet (7.0 aDOT) for Dak and has settled in as a TE1/2 who needs to score a touchdown to reach any sort of ceiling. Detroit has been a below-average unit against fantasy tight ends.

Panthers (26.75, -4) vs. ATL

Forecast: Kyle Allen QB2, Christian McCaffrey RB1, D.J. Moore WR1/2, Curtis Samuel WR3, Greg Olsen TE1

CARATL
CARATL

In the six games since Kyle Allen threw four touchdowns against the Cardinals, he’s averaged 223 passing yards, 1.0 touchdowns, and 0.8 interceptions per game. Not great, especially since he’s only picked up 14 rushing yards on the season. The Falcons Defense has been awful this season, but it did notably hold the Saints to nine points on the road last week. Perhaps the coaching rearrangement and the bye week cleaned up some things. I’m leaving Allen in the QB2 range. … I’m here to tell you to start Christian McCaffrey as an elite RB1 against the Falcons at home with a 27.5-point team total. One thing to note is the Panthers’ signing of RB Mike Davis, who won’t steal many looks from CMC but makes Reggie Bonnafon a much worse fantasy handcuff.

CARAY11
CARAY11

D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel are playing two totally different games of football. Moore has been a low-aDOT, high-volume receiver, which elevates his weekly floor -- he has at least five receptions in five-straight games -- but has kept him out of the end zone in all but one game. Against the Falcons, Moore should have no problem getting open near the first-down marker as a WR1/2. Through nine games, Moore is fantasy’s WR17. … Curtis Samuel has been far less consistent because he has a 15.4 average depth of target. As you can see in the tweet below, targets 15-40 yards downfield are worth slightly more fantasy points over time, but there’s more variance in how long it takes before a true average is realized. For Samuel, we’re still waiting for bigger yardage games since he’s fifth in air yards and 41st in receiving yards. Samuel is a boom-or-bust WR3 with a decent chance of a “boom” against a Falcons Defense that is in the bottom 29th percentile at preventing 20+ yard plays. … Greg Olsen is fourth among tight ends in air yards and is coming off a 10-target game. He’s been pretty involved as a receiver in most games, which has led him to being the TE9 through 10 weeks. Olsen is a low-end TE1. The Falcons just allowed six receptions and 74 yards to Jared Cook last week.

Ravens (27.75, -4.5) vs. HOU

Forecast: Lamar Jackson QB1, Mark Ingram RB2, Gus Edwards RB4, Marquise Brown (questionable) WR2/3, Willie Snead WR5, Mark Andrews TE1

BALHOU
BALHOU

The fantasy QB1 overall, Lamar Jackson is an elite play against a Texans Defense that’s in the bottom 22nd percentile against fantasy quarterbacks and is now without J.J. Watt. Vegas projects Baltimore for 27.75 points. This is the best game of the week. Scroll down for more on LJ. … The offense was too good for Mark Ingram to be productive last week against the Bengals -- the Ravens became the first team since 1967 to score 49+ points with under 48 offensive plays. Volume shouldn’t be a concern for Ingram this week, however. Game script is on his side, and the high team total gives him plenty of touchdown equity since Ingram is second in inside-the-five carries (11) and first in touchdowns (7) from that area. Ingram is an upside RB2.

BALAY11
BALAY11

Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews account for 55% of the air yards in the seven games they’ve played together. Brown has elite downfield abilities, and the Texans are in the bottom 29th percentile at preventing 20+ yard pass attempts. I’m expecting Brown’s air yards to spike back up this week after game script got in the way from even bigger games in recent weeks. Brown is an upside WR2/3. Make sure to have Lamar to Brown DFS tournament stacks. … Willie Snead and to a lesser extent Miles Boykin are low-volume dart throws in a potentially high-scoring game. … Mark Andrews has been the far more consistent pass-catcher since his air yards and targets have been hovering around my “10 PPR Expected” line in the chart above. The Texans have played well against fantasy tight ends (top 26th percentile) but volume and talent should win out here. Andrews is a top-five TE1 with upside.

Bonus Content: Does Lamar Take Big Hits On Runs?

One of the Boomer takes with Lamar Jackson is running quarterbacks don’t last, largely due to injuries. For right or wrong, that precedent was set with Mike Vick, RGIII, and possibly now with Cam Newton, but I was curious if Lamar was doing anything special on his runs that would potentially decrease his odds of getting injured compared to other running quarterbacks. So I charted the six 2019 games with play by play data on NFL GamePass (Weeks 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, and 10). I used my best judgment to declare if he was tackled, if he slid, or if he ran out of bounds primarily unfazed, which sometimes meant the end zone. My “judgment” on if he was tackled was based on how hard of a hit and/or fall Lamar took. Here are the results:

6-Game Sample

Tackled

Slide

Out of Bounds

Designed Runs

22

2

8

Scrambles

8

4

6

Total (n = 50)

30

6

14

64% of his runs after removing sneaks, kneels, and other nonsense plays were designed runs (options, QB draws, etc.), which have been safer than quarterback scrambles per Sports Info Solutions. I will admit Lamar getting tackled on 69% of his designed runs is actually not nice, but I’d definitely argue Lamar avoids straight-on, hard-hit tackles more so than other running quarterbacks after re-watching all of these runs. Most of the time, defenders are forced to slow down before making contact because they are worried about getting juked out of their shoes (video of that here), which saves him front high-force hits. There are other times where he’s simply tripped up in open space, which intuitively seems safe because he’s often just landing on the turf without a defender landing on him:

When Lamar scrambles (36% of his runs), he’s doing a good job of getting out of bounds or sliding (he’s not getting tackled on 56% of his scrambles), which is directly tied to his elite athleticism. One interesting aspect of Lamar’s scrambling game is his “sliding”. Most quarterbacks do a foot-first, baseball slide when they go down to avoid being hit, but Lamar almost exclusively does a head-first slide (see video below). I think this is mostly a good thing, as long as he continues avoiding upper body hits which he’s mostly done thus far -- because it’s saving his knees and ankles from being wrapped up oddly.

But there’s one more thing to note, and it’s when Lamar is in the pocket. By adding plays where a quarterback is either sacked or hit while throwing (let’s call this stat “dropback hits”), we can see which quarterbacks are putting themselves at risk of injury while throwing. Out of 34 quarterbacks with at least five games, Lamar is eighth-best in avoiding dropback hits per game (2.2 per PFF). For reference, Daniel Jones is the worst with 4.8 dropback hits per game.

Overall, Lamar’s elite athleticism helps him avoid being hit hard both as a runner and passer. When Lamar runs, it’s most often on the safer designed runs, and he’s sliding or running out of bounds at a higher rate on the more dangerous quarterback scrambles. Lamar could (and arguably should) slide more often on his designed runs, but he is able to avoid hard hits because defenders slow down before contact to try to avoid getting juked. Lamar’s awareness has also kept him safer while throwing, so I’m skeptical that Lamar is more injury-prone than other quarterbacks like the Boomers like to say. Even if he is, Lamar shouldn’t change his style because he has Super Bowl winning upside while playing like this.

PaceWeek11
PaceWeek11

Teams are listed in order of their Vegas projected team points.

Page 1: OAK, KC, SF, NO, CAR, DAL, BAL (plus bonus Lamar content)

Page 2: MIN, DET, LAC, NE, LAR, IND, BUF, HOU, ATL, TB

Page 3: PHI, JAX, WAS, CIN, NYJ, CHI, MIA, ARI, DEN

TNF: CLE, PIT

Byes: GB, NYG, SEA, TEN

Vikings (25.5, -10.5) vs. DEN

Forecast: Kirk Cousins QB1/2, Dalvin Cook RB1, Alexander Mattison RB4, Stefon Diggs WR2, Olabisi Johnson WR5, Kyle Rudolph TE1/2

MINDEN
MINDEN

Kirk Cousins has been an efficient quarterback this season, but he’s barely a QB1/2 most weeks due to volume. This week, it’s hard to bank on his efficiency, too, with Adam Thielen out and with the Broncos secondary in town. Denver is in the top 7th percentile against fantasy quarterbacks and can put an elite CB on Cousins’ only good receiver. Cousins is more of a high-end QB2 than a locked-in QB1. … Dalvin Cook is averaging 20.3 carries and 4.0 receptions per game. With the Vikings projected for 25.5 points this week, Cook is obviously an elite RB1. … Alexander Mattison typically sees 5-10 touches per game, but he remains one of the few elite fantasy handcuffs who should be rostered in 10-man leagues with multiple bench spots.

MINAY11
MINAY11

Adam Thielen is on track to miss another game, so the passing attack will once again fall on Stefon Diggs. Somewhere between 6-10 targets should be expected for Diggs, but he will be shadowed by elite Broncos CB Chris Harris. That’s enough to downgrade Diggs to the WR2/3 range -- it will be hard to reach a ceiling because Denver doesn’t allow long passing plays -- but not enough to go further than that as long as Thielen stays sidelined. … Olabisi Johnson ran a route on 89% of Vikings’ dropbacks last week but only saw four targets in a close win. Johnson is a WR5 dart throw with the easiest matchup among Vikings receivers. … Kyle Rudolph has been more involved in recent weeks with Thielen out of the lineup, but he’s still a touchdown-dependent TE2. Rudolph has been scorching hot in the touchdown department, however. Most of that is just good luck and timing, but he’s the best pass-catching red-zone weapon with Thielen out.

Lions (23.5, +4.5) vs. DAL

Update: Matthew Stafford is officially out. Ty Johnson has gone from DNP to limited to full this week. He's a true game-time decision. Johnson would be a tough sell as a flex with McKissic and Perkins involved. I'm hoping Johnson is out because McKissic would be a nice plug-and-play flex.

Forecast: Jeff Driskel QB2/3, Ty Johnson (questionable) RB3, J.D. McKissic RB2/3, Paul Perkins RB4, Kenny Golladay WR2, Marvin Jones WR3/4, Danny Amendola WR5, T.J. Hockenson TE1/2

DETDAL
DETDAL

Matthew Stafford did not practice Wednesday, so I’m assuming he’s out Week 11. That would mean another Jeff Driskel start, which means more pain for Lions fans. Driskel has a career 5.7 YPA and was never a plus passer in college, but he does have some rushing ability (37 rushing yards last week) which gives him a shot at paying off as a low-end QB2 in two-quarterback leagues. … Ty Johnson (concussion) is questionable for Week 11, so J.D. McKissic and Paul Perkins will likely form a two-back committee. Last week after Johnson left early, McKissic saw 10 carries and caught six passes, while Perkins chipped in seven carries. Since McKissic is a capable pass-catcher, he’s the better plug-and-play flex, although neither back is a must-play with Driskel at quarterback.

DETAY11
DETAY11

The efficiency difference between Stafford and Driskel is obviously big, but it was at least nice to see Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones keep their high usages (see chart above). Aside from Driskel, the issue for this week is how Dallas schemes its defense. The Cowboys were one of the teams I highlighted as a top team at defending deeper passes after dissecting play-by-play data via NextGenStats, and winning downfield is where Golladay and Jones cash in. The chart below shows how Dallas (“DAL”) is the most prone (red color) in the middle of the field about 5-10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. That’s where Danny Amendola and T.J. Hockenson will primarily be working. I still like Golladay as a low-end WR2 and Jones as a flex option, but I’m not expecting ceiling games. … T.J. Hockenson has been more involved from Week 7 and on and is in the mix as an upside TE2 based on talent and now volume. With Dallas leaving underneath passes over the middle open, I like Hockenson as a TE1/2 streamer this week.

NFLDefense
NFLDefense

Chargers (24.25, +4) vs. KC

Forecast: Philip Rivers QB2, Melvin Gordon RB1/2, Austin Ekeler RB2/3, Keenan Allen WR2, Mike Williams WR3/4, Hunter Henry TE1

LACKC
LACKC

Philip Rivers just might be washed (he has a career-low 3.8 touchdown rate), and even if he’s not actually washed, it’s going to be tough to do anything behind this offensive line with this coaching staff. It’s a tough scene. The Chiefs are also one of the biggest run funnels in the NFL in terms of both efficiency (see chart above) and volume. Rivers is a mid-range QB2 who will likely be playing in catch up mode once again. … Kansas City is truly awful against the run, and the Bolts have handed Melvin Gordon 20 and 22 carries in the last two games after changing offensive coordinators. Gordon’s arrow is ascending in fantasy and as an actual NFL player. He looked a lot more explosive and decisive in Week 10 after looking completely dusted earlier. Gordon has 20-25 touch upside as long as the game stays somewhat close, locking Gordon into the RB1/2 range. … Austin Ekeler is trending in the other direction. Ekeler has reception totals of 2, 4, and 2 in the last three weeks and is a clear second option as a runner. The matchup, both game flow and scheme, keep Ekeler in the flex mix, but he’s not an every-week RB2 unless his usage picks back up. The Chargers should line him up in the slot more often.

LACAY11
LACAY11

Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are both positive touchdown regression candidates, but they need Rivers, the offensive line, and coaching staff to be better to realize that potential. Keenan’s 7.6 YPT is the worst since 2014, and Williams has four and three targets in his last two games. Both receivers are talented enough to break their funks, but Kansas City being a run funneling defense (see bar chart above) makes this a tougher matchup to bet on that happening. Keenan is a high-end WR2. Williams is a boom-or-bust flex. … On the other hand, Hunter Henry has been fantastic. Since his Week 6 return, Henry is leading tight ends in PPR points, targets, receptions, receiving yards, and air yards. Henry is an elite TE1 right now and is the Chargers pass-catcher I’m most confident in. As a bonus, the Chiefs are in the bottom 29th percentile against fantasy tight ends.

Editor's Note: Drafting is only half the battle. Dominate all season long with our Season Pass! Use our NEW Start/Sit Tool, Trade Analyzer, Consensus Rankings, Projections and more on your way to a championship! Click here for more!

Patriots (24.25, -3.5) @ PHI

Forecast: Tom Brady QB1/2, James White RB3, Sony Michel RB3, Rex Burkhead RB4, Julian Edelman WR1/2, Mohamed Sanu WR3, Phillip Dorsett WR5, Ben Watson TE2

NEPHI
NEPHI

Tom Brady has been a low-end QB1 against bad defenses, and the Eagles qualify. Most of Brady’s production has been volume-based and tied to passing yardage (282 yards per game) because he’s been awful in the red zone. Brady has thrown a touchdown on just 12% of pass attempts (league average 24%), which should positively regress in the second half. Brady offers some passing upside as a borderline QB1/2. … The Patriots backfield is a complete mess again. Snap counts over the last two weeks: James White (56), Sony Michel (43), and Rex Burkhead (37). None can be confidently started with Burkhead capable of stealing looks away from both specialty backs, but at the same time, any of the three can have a ceiling game against any opponent. For now, White is an RB3 in PPR leagues while Michel is a touchdown-dependent RB3 in all leagues. I’m curious to see how touches are distributed after the bye.

NEAY11
NEAY11

Julian Edelman continues to be reliable underneath receiver for Belichick and Brady even with Mohamed Sanu in the mix. Edelman still primarily lined up in the slot and should continue seeing 7-12 targets per game as a high-floor WR1/2. The Eagles’ bottom 22nd percentile defense against fantasy receivers give him a chance at reaching a ceiling. … Mohamed Sanu ran a route on 100% of the Patriots dropbacks and set a season-high in targets in Week 9. Those numbers were inflated by the scoreboard, but Sanu should be projected for 5-10 targets most weeks, especially against the Eagles. It’s worth noting that Sanu played 58% on the outside when he was mostly a slot receiver in Atlanta. That change may make him more boom-or-bust than what some will think, but he’s firmly entered the WR3 mix. … Phillip Dorsett ran a route on 47 of 49 dropbacks in Week 9, and he has a reasonable shot of having a “boom” week since the Eagles have allowed deep passes at a much higher rate than most defenses (look at the dots in the graph below). Dorsett is a low-volume WR4 dart throw. … Rookie N'Keal Harry could be making a debut as well. ... Benjamin Watson has settled in as a 3-6 target check-down magnet with minimal athleticism. Playing for the Pats gives him touchdown equity, but he’s still a TE2. For as bad as the Eagles have been against the pass, they’ve been in the top 30th percentile against tight ends so far.

NFLDefensesDots
NFLDefensesDots

Texans (23.25, +4.5) @ BAL

Update: Will Fuller is a true game-time decision.

Forecast: Deshaun Watson QB1, Carlos Hyde RB2, Duke Johnson RB3, DeAndre Hopkins WR1, Will Fuller (questionable) WR3/4, Kenny Stills WR4, Darren Fells TE2, Jordan Akins TE2

HOUBAL
HOUBAL

Deshaun Watson is one of the highest-floor fantasy quarterbacks. He’s either thrown his way into a lead or will produce in comeback mode. This week, Vegas is projecting the Texans as 4.5-point underdogs to Lamar, which is perfectly fine with me. As the chart shows below, rushing quarterbacks tend to run more often while trailing, which actually gives Watson an even higher ceiling as a QB1.

RunningsQBs
RunningsQBs

Carlos Hyde surprisingly doesn’t have crazy game script splits this season with the Texans rushing the ball so often. Hyde has averaged 16.6 carries this season and should see 12-18 touches once again, even as underdogs. The Ravens Defense currently sits in the bottom 12th percentile in run defense DVOA, poor enough for Hyde to remain in the RB2 mix. … Duke Johnson deserves more opportunities (6.0 carries and 2.4 receptions per game) since he’s averaging 5.3 yards per carry and 7.1 yards per target, but he’s primarily a handcuff for fantasy purposes right now. Hopefully that changes.

HOUAY11
HOUAY11

DeAndre Hopkins has a tough matchup against CBs Marcus Peters and Jimmy Smith this week, but Hopkins has been a reliable WR1 for years and can’t be dropped too much. It’s hard to complain with 8-13 targets in just about every game, but it would be nice to see Hopkins used downfield more often so he can reach a higher ceiling. … Will Fuller has practiced in limited fashion and is likely going to be a game-time decision. The deep threat has re-injury risk as an upside flex in a potentially high-scoring game, but once again, the Ravens’ cornerback play has been drastically better in recent weeks. … Fuller’s return would put a dent in Kenny Stills’ already low usage. Stills could lose a ton of snaps if the Texans use 2-TE sets with Hopkins and Fuller as the top receivers. … Those two tight ends are Darren Fells and Jordan Akins. Both have been low-aDOT, low-volume targets, but they are at least attached to an explosive offense. In fact, Fells has somehow scored a touchdown on 6-of-9 red-zone targets. Both are pure dart throws against a top 23rd percentile defense versus fantasy tight ends.

Colts (23.25, -3) vs. JAX

Update: T.Y. Hilton and Parris Campbell are both out, locking Zach Pascal into the No. 1 receiver spot as a fantasy WR3. Eric Ebron is far more appealing, too.

Forecast: Jacoby Brissett QB2, Marlon Mack RB2, Zach Pascal WR3, Chester Rogers WR5, Eric Ebron TE1/2, Jack Doyle TE2

INDJAX
INDJAX

Jacoby Brissett is expected to start after returning to practice. When healthy, Brissett has been a functional QB2 in a run-heavy offense, but it will be very hard for him to reach a ceiling if T.Y. Hilton is unable to play, which looks likely as of Thursday night. I’m projecting the Colts to play into the Jaguars’ run funneling defense, making Brissett a forgettable QB2. It also doesn’t help that Brissett is a negative touchdown regression candidate:

Getting Brissett back helps nobody more than Marlon Mack, who reaches ceilings when the Colts build leads. As 3-point favorites against a bottom 25th percentile run defense DVOA, Mack has upside as an RB2, especially since he’s a positive touchdown regression candidate.

INDAY11
INDAY11

T.Y. Hilton looks very questionable to play and would be a risky WR3 even if he suits up. I’m assuming it’s going to be Zach Pascal and Chester Rogers at receiver once again with Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle very involved, too. Last week, Ebron set a new season-high in targets and air yards. Those totals are locks to come down since the Colts aren’t likely to pass as much this week, but Ebron has touchdown equity as the best red-zone weapon and should see 5+ targets. Ebron is a low-end TE1 without Hilton. … Jack Doyle doesn’t have the red zone equity and therefore the upside of Ebron, but 3-5 targets are enough to keep him at the top of the TE2 conversation. … Zach Pascal, who is averaging 10.2 yards per target this season, has had WR3-level usage in his two games without T.Y. and has a better chance of turning in WR3 value with Brissett than Brian Hoyer. The Jaguars’ middling defense against fantasy receivers doesn’t move Pascal up or down the receiver rankings. … Chester Rogers has four and five targets in the two games with T.Y. but he has been a near full-time route runner at least. He’s a WR5 with volume concerns.

Rams (23.25, -6.5) vs. CHI

Forecast: Jared Goff QB2, Todd Gurley RB2, Cooper Kupp WR2, Robert Woods WR3, Josh Reynolds WR5, Gerald Everett TE1/2

LARCHI
LARCHI

Here are Jared Goff's stats in the last 17 games: 6.9 YPA, 18 passing touchdowns, 17 interceptions, 17 fumbles, and 59% completions. Continuing to view Goff as an every-week QB1 will continue to cost you money. The offensive line hasn’t been as good this season and is now relying on backups. The Bears should test Goff’s pressure splits. Goff is an upside QB2 as one of the 10-worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL right now. … Todd Gurley has averaged 13.0 carries and 1.9 receptions per game and hasn’t been as efficient while clearly not playing with the same lateral ability as he once had. Gurley’s volume could ramp up down the stretch as offseason reports indicated, but I’m not betting on that happening. Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown should continue splitting a dozen or so touches behind Gurley, who is an RB2 against a Bears Defense that is in the bottom 29th percentile against fantasy running backs.

LARAY11
LARAY11

I was surprised to see such drastic game script splits for Cooper Kupp, who apparently feasts while trailing and has average usage with a lead (see chart below). It’s likely that we’ve seen the best of Kupp already, and I’m very confident that he’s not as consistent as we thought after the first five weeks. Kupp is a WR2 against a top 10th percentile defense against fantasy receivers. … Robert Woods came alive last week after multiple down weeks. His usage has been all over the place, but it would be somewhat surprising if he didn’t see 6-10 targets this week with Brandin Cooks (concussion) out. Woods is also one of the biggest positive touchdown regression candidates with 45 receptions and 566 yards on the season with zero touchdowns. Woods is a volume-based WR3 despite the tough matchup. … Josh Reynolds’ air yards have been nice the last two weeks, but this probably isn’t the matchup to take a buy-low flier on the No. 3 option. … Gerald Everett is prone to complete clunkers but so are all of the other low-end TE1s right now. Everett, at least, has shown weekly upside as a down the seam target looking for play-makers. Everett has double-digit targets in three of his last five games. He’s one of my preferred low-end TE1s.

KuppUsage
KuppUsage

Bills (23.75, -6.5) @ MIA

Forecast: Josh Allen QB1/2, Devin Singletary RB2/3, Frank Gore RB4, John Brown WR2, Cole Beasley WR3/4, Dawson Knox TE2

BUFMIA
BUFMIA

Josh Allen has been Josh Allen as a passer (not good), but the matchup is sweet and he offers a fantasy ceiling as a dual-threat quarterback. In his three starts against Miami, Allen has averaged an absurd 83 rushing yards, which is obviously not sustainable but shows his upside in this matchup. Allen is an upside QB1/2 with a higher floor than normal. … Devin Singletary is the leader of the Bills’ backfield, but he’s not a bellcow right now. Frank Gore is still seeing 20+ snaps per game and remains involved as a runner, especially in short-yardage situations. Starting a committee back in a bottom half offense is a recipe for disaster, but game script (5.5-point favorites) and matchup (see chart above) are too good to not put Singletary on the RB2/3 radar. Singletary should see 12-18 touches this week.

BUFAY11
BUFAY11

John Brown is a very easy evaluation. He has at least 50 yards in every game this season, thanks to WR2-level usage (see chart above). Brown is a positive touchdown regression candidate (680 yards but just two touchdowns) and has the matchup to cash those tickets in this week. Brown is an upside WR2. … Cole Beasley has been on a touchdown heater recently but that can be chalked up to good luck, not skill. I’m putting more weight into his low air yard and target totals, which keep him out of the WR3 discussion, even against the Dolphins. Beasley is a flex option but carries a low ceiling and floor. … Dawson Knox has had inconsistent usage since Tyler Kroft returned but is a low-end TE2 streamer given the matchup and six targets last week.

Falcons (22.75, +4) @ CAR

Forecast: Matt Ryan QB1/2, Brian Hill RB2, Julio Jones WR1, Calvin Ridley WR2, Russell Gage WR4

ATLCAR
ATLCAR

Matt Ryan has had back-to-back games with under 200 yards (ankle injury) after starting the season with six-straight games with at least 300 yards. The Panthers are in the top 7th percentile in pass defense DVOA, but the secondary is banged up right now, making them an easier matchup than what the bar charts would indicate. To be fair, the Falcons Offense is also missing weapons (Mohamed Sanu, Austin Hooper, and Devonta Freeman) and Ryan is still not at 100% himself, so I’m inclined to call Ryan a QB1/2 than a sure-fire QB1. … With Devonta Freeman out, Brian Hill is shaping up as a bellcow back for at least 1-2 weeks. When asked about Hill, coach Dan Quinn said, “We’ve got a lot of trust and belief in him.” Hill can be safely projected for 15+ touches including goal-line (219 pounds) and pass-catching (20-catch season at Wyoming) work for now, and the matchup is pretty ideal. The Panthers are last in run defense DVOA and third-worst against fantasy running backs. Hill is an upside RB2.

ATLAY11
ATLAY11

Julio Jones’ and Calvin Ridley’s outlooks were already better without Mohamed Sanu, and they might be even better with Austin Hooper sidelined. Hooper leaves behind 14% of the Falcons’ air yards, 18% of the targets, and 28% of the red zone looks. That’s a ton of production. Jones is an elite WR1 like always, but I wouldn’t trip on the matchup because Panthers CBs James Bradberry (limited), Ross Cockrell (DNP), and Donte Jackson (DNP) are all on the injury report. Ridley is squarely in the upside WR2 mix with volume and matchup on his side. … Russell Gage is also entering the fantasy mix after seeing 14 targets in his two weeks as a near full-time route runner. Gage probably stands to benefit the most with Hooper’s injury, so he’s a decent desperation flex option this week, especially if those corners actually miss Week 11. … TEs Luke Stocker and Jaeden Graham are on my radar but won’t be in any of my fantasy lineups. Stocker has been a blocker and Graham is completely unproven right now.

Bucs (22.25, +5.5) vs. NO

Forecast: Jameis Winston QB1/2, Ronald Jones RB2, Peyton Barber RB4, Mike Evans WR1, Chris Godwin WR1, O.J. Howard TE1/2

TBNO
TBNO

Since playing the 49ers and Panthers to start the season, Jameis Winston is averaging 337 yards and 2.1 touchdowns per game. He’s arguably an every-week QB1 with volume and play-makers on his side, but Winston isn’t very trustworthy in matchups like this. Winston only managed 204 yards and two touchdowns against the Saints in Week 5, his only non-300 yard game since Week 2. This game, however, is at home and the Bucs do look more composed since the bye, so Winston can be utilized as an upside QB1/2 this week. … Ronald Jones surprised with 8-of-8 receiving for 77 yards last week, and coach Bruce Arians made post-game comments suggesting his pass-game role was here to stay. I kind of buy it in the sense that 2-4 receptions per game is achievable in this offense, even for a running back like RoJo who hasn’t caught many passes since high school. Jones will be put to the test as a receiver with the Bucs projected to lose by six points, but RoJo should deliver RB2 value. In his last three games, Jones has averaged 13.3 carries.

TBAY11
TBAY11

Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have been high-volume WR1s, but they have flip-flopped big games. One theory I have is they're utilized differently depending on game script with Evans operating as the desperation deep threat while trailing and Godwin acting as the safer target when the Bucs have a lead (evidence is below). That would set up well for Evans this week, especially with stud CB Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) expected to be out. Evans is a locked-in WR1, while Godwin is a low-end WR1. Both have plenty of upside. … O.J. Howard predictably had his best game against the Cardinals’ vulnerable defense last week, but it was still good to see. Howard has the talent to have a bounceback second half of the season, although he’ll have to get it done as the clear No. 3 target behind two stud receivers. Howard is an upside TE2.

BucsWR
BucsWR
PaceWeek11
PaceWeek11

Teams are listed in order of their Vegas projected team points.

Page 1: OAK, KC, SF, NO, CAR, DAL, BAL (plus bonus Lamar content)

Page 2: MIN, DET, LAC, NE, LAR, IND, BUF, HOU, ATL, TB

Page 3: PHI, JAX, WAS, CIN, NYJ, CHI, MIA, ARI, DEN

TNF: CLE, PIT

Byes: GB, NYG, SEA, TEN

Eagles (20.75, +3.5) vs. NE

Update: Jordan Howard hasn't been cleared for contact yet but has been limited at practice. He's officially questionable and a game-time decision. The Eagles also signed Jay Ajayi. ... Alshon Jeffery is out, which probably hurts Zach Ertz. I'm expecting Stephon Gilmore to cover Ertz a lot.

Forecast: Carson Wentz QB2, Jordan Howard (questionable) RB2/3, Miles Sanders RB3, Nelson Agholor WR5, Zach Ertz TE1, Dallas Goedert TE1/2

PHINE
PHINE

Carson Wentz has underperformed in fantasy due to injuries to his skill position players, and it’s not getting better. Alshon Jeffery is questionable after missing practice this week and DeSean Jackson is on injured reserve. Against the league’s best defense, Wentz is purely a low-ceiling QB2. … Jordan Howard has an extremely difficult matchup, but the Eagles may be forced to give him 15-20 touches if Alshon is injured even if they are in a negative game script. Philly also just watched the Ravens find success against the Patriots on the ground, so there is some level of a blueprint even if Wentz isn’t the playmaker Lamar is. Howard is a volume-based RB2/3 with some touchdown equity. … Miles Sanders is also a candidate for meaningful touches. The rookie has at least three receptions in five-straight games, and the Patriots have funneled almost all receptions beneath within 5-10 yards of the line of scrimmage where Sanders does almost all of his damage. Sanders is a sneaky RB3 in PPR leagues but can’t be touched in non-PPR leagues.

PHIAY11
PHIAY11

Alshon Jeffery is looking unlikely to play and shouldn’t be trusted even if he does play with an impossible matchup against CB Stefon Gilmore. … If Jeffery misses, the Eagles will have Nelson Agholor, Mack Hollins, Jordan Matthews, and other knuckleheads as their top receivers. We should obviously ignore them all given the opponent. … Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert will do a lot of the heavy lifting, but coach Bill Belichick obviously knows this. I’m expecting a lot of attention being spent on Ertz, who could even get some Gilmore coverage this week if Jeffery is out. Wentz will likely have to send Ertz 5-10 targets regardless, making him a TE1 with a wide range of outcomes. … Goedert is the sneaky good play as a TE1/2 for the reasons I just laid out above. The underutilized tight end should have the softest coverage of the group and runs most of his routes in the area the Patriots are willing to give up passes. I wouldn’t be surprised if Goedert caught five passes this week.

NFLDefensesDensity
NFLDefensesDensity

Jaguars (20.25, +3) @ IND

Forecast: Nick Foles QB2, Leonard Fournette RB1, D.J. Chark WR2, Dede Westbrook WR4, Chris Conley WR5

JAXIND
JAXIND

Gardner Minshew will take a backseat to Nick Foles this week. I’m not expecting many differences with the quarterback change for the offense in general, and Minshew’s fantasy lines are decent projections for Foles. With a 20.25-point team total against a top 17th percentile pass defense, Foles is a low-end QB2 in his debut from injury. … The Colts Defense has been a run funnel (see efficiency columns above) this season, and Leonard Fournette is very due for touchdowns:

JAXAY11
JAXAY11

I don’t see any real reasons to move D.J. Chark up or down the rankings with Foles back at quarterback (see chart below). Chark should continue to see 5-10 targets per game with plenty of WR2-level air yards. For this week, Chark may be closer to the lower end of the WR2 spectrum with both teams expected to play slow and run-heavy football. … Dede Westbrook returned to practice this week and should slide in as a 5-8 target receiver. It’s probably best to throw out Westbrook’s splits with/without Foles due to sample size, making Westbrook a quality WR4. … Chris Conley offers more upside than Westbrook as the primary deep threat. Conley has had WR3-level usage while Westbrook was injured, but he should slide back into the 3-6 target range with Dede back healthy. Conley is an upside WR5.

JaguarsQBs
JaguarsQBs

Redskins (20.5, -2.5) vs. NYJ

Update: Paul Richardson is out.

Forecast: Dwayne Haskins QB2/3, Adrian Peterson RB4, Derrius Guice RB4, Terry McLaurin WR3/4

WASNYJ
WASNYJ

Dwayne Haskins has the arm talent to be a franchise quarterback, but the Redskins don’t trust him to be a franchise quarterback. Even against a very beatable pass funneling defense, I’d expect Washington to rely on their rushing attack instead of letting Haskins rip 35+ pass attempts. Haskins is on the QB2/3. … Coach Bill Callahan said, “We've got a pretty good rotational system” for Adrian Peterson and Derrius Guice. My guess is both backs see 8-15 carries as a two-back committee with Chris Thompson (toe) still sidelined. The Redskins were barely able to make AP a flex back, so I’m not viewing either back as a flex now that there are two of them, especially against the Jets No. 2 run defense.

WASAY11
WASAY11

Terry McLaurin’s fantasy value has plummeted, but the Redskins would be smart to get him going off the bye, especially with his college quarterback starting. There is talk that McLaurin will move around the formation now, which would be a great first step. McLaurin may be worth a dart throw in DFS tournaments and certainly is a season-long flex option with upside against the second-worst defense versus fantasy receivers. If McLaurin doesn’t do it this week, he may just be cancelled. … Trey Quinn and Paul Richardson are wide receivers on the Washington Redskins if you care. Neither have reached my “10 PPR Expected” threshold since Week 4.

Bengals (18.75, +11) @ OAK

Forecast: Ryan Finley QB2/3, Joe Mixon RB2, Auden Tate WR3/4, Tyler Boyd WR3/4, Alex Erickson (questionable) WR5, Tyler Eifert TE2

CINOAK
CINOAK

In Ryan Finley’s first NFL start, the Bengals became the first team since 1977 to run the ball 40+ times in a 36+ point loss. Cincy clearly doesn’t want to put the ball in Finley’s hands for better or worse. Even against Oakland, who is in the bottom 9th percentile against fantasy quarterbacks, Finley can’t be trusted beyond deep two-quarterback leagues. Volume, talent, and surrounding talent are all issues. … Joe Mixon may actually benefit from Andy Dalton’s benching. Mixon was averaging 12.6 carries with Dalton and then set a new season-high last week when he saw a whopping 30 carries. It’s possible that Mixon sees 15+ carries with Finley under center regardless of game script. Mixon absolutely needs that level of volume to be a fantasy starter because he’s averaging 3.3 yards per carry and hasn’t converted any of his seven inside-the-5 carries for touchdowns. Mixon is a volume-based low-end RB2 against the Raiders, who are in the bottom 32nd percentile against fantasy running backs.

CINAY11
CINAY11

Tyler Boyd is Tyler Boyd. He projects for 8-14 PPR points in good matchups like this one as the primary check-down option for a check-down quarterback. He’s a flex option. … Auden Tate is more interesting to me. Tate has had more air yards than Tyler Boyd in four of his last five games and is a positive touchdown regression candidate since he only has one red-zone touchdown on 14 red-zone targets. The matchup against Oakland also sets up nicely for Tate because he is targeted deeper downfield and the Raiders are the worst defense at preventing 20+ yard pass plays. Tate is a sneaky flex play. … Alex Erickson is on the injury report right now. … Tyler Eifert had a nine-target game in Week 8 with Andy Dalton, but he’s been a touchdown-dependent TE2 otherwise. Eifert had four targets with Finley last week. The Raiders checking in as a bottom 6th percentile defense against fantasy tight ends gives Eifert a chance for a lucky score.

Jets (18, +2.5) @ WAS

Update: Le'Veon Bell and Demaryius Thomas are questionable but seem likely to play.

Forecast: Sam Darnold QB2/3, Le’Veon Bell (questionable) RB1/2, Jamison Crowder WR4, Robby Anderson WR4, Demaryius Thomas (questionable) WR5, Ryan Griffin TE2

NYJWAS
NYJWAS

Sam Darnold is averaging 226 yards, 1.2 touchdowns, and 1.8 interceptions in his five games since Mono. The Redskins have been awful as well, but I’m not trusting Darnold to expose them on the road -- he had 260/1/1 against the Dolphins two weeks ago. Darnold is barely a starter in two-quarterback leagues. … Le’Veon Bell is having a career-worst season in most efficiency categories behind a bad offensive line, but he has a big workload (15.9 carries and 4.9 receptions per game) and a good matchup this week. The Redskins are in the bottom 19th percentile against fantasy running backs, making Bell a buy-low RB1/2.

NYJAY11
NYJAY11

Since Darnold’s Week 6 return, here are the Jets’ receivers stat lines: Jamison Crowder (26-312-2 on 34 targets), Demaryius Thomas (20-270-0 on 30 targets), and Robby Anderson (13-22-1 on 29 targets). Crowder is the check-down option as a more consistent WR4. DT is not my flavor. And then we have Anderson, who is a positive regression candidate but one without a whole lot of volume to regress to. All four receivers are WR4s with Anderson holding the most theoretical upside as the highest aDOT receiver (14.6 since Darnold’s return). … Chris Herndon is out, so Ryan Griffin will continue being a touchdown-dependent TE2 on a bad team.

Dolphins (17.25, +6.5) vs. BUF

Forecast: Ryan Fitzpatrick QB3, Kalen Ballage RB3, DeVante Parker WR3/4, Allen Hurns WR5, Mike Gesicki TE2

MIABUF
MIABUF

Ryan Fitzpatrick against a Bills Defense that is in the top 10th percentile against fantasy quarterbacks? No, thank you. … Kalen Ballage did his best crash-test dummy impression last week running into 20 brick walls on 20 carries for 43 meaningless yards while adding two yards on four receptions. Ballage has volume on his side and the matchup is pretty good (the Bills Defense is much weaker on the ground), but Ballage is merely a flex option and one with a low floor.

MIAAY11
MIAAY11

DeVante Parker predictably had awesome usage last week with Preston Williams out for the season. That should continue down the stretch, but he will face stud CB Tre’Davious White this week. Parker is a boom-or-bust flex. Don’t drop him if he busts this week, however. Better days are ahead. … Allen Hurns (5 targets last week), Albert Wilson (3), and Jakeem Grant (2) rotate in behind Parker. … Like Parker, Mike Gesicki has potential down the stretch as an upside player who is seeing more volume now. Gesicki is a zero-floor TE2 this week since the Bills have been the best defense against tight ends, but he could be a TE1/2 for the fantasy playoffs.

Cardinals (17, +10.5) @ SF

Update:

Forecast: Kyler Murray QB1/2, Kenyan Drake RB2/3, David Johnson RB3, Christian Kirk WR2/3, Larry Fitzgerald WR4, Andy Isabella WR5

ARISF
ARISF

Kyler Murray is fantasy’s QB5 right now despite being one of the worst red-zone passers this season, throwing a touchdown on just 15% of pass attempts (league average 24%). If he and Kliff can figure out how to win when the field shrinks, Murray is going to really start popping. Getting Christian Kirk back healthy and Andy Isabella on the field should help him create more big plays, too. This week will be a big test (see chart above), however. Murray had 241/2 with 37 rushing yards against San Francisco two weeks ago. He’s on the QB1/2 borderline. … David Johnson claimed he was ready to go for Week 10, but he was very clearly not healthy. DJ only saw five carries and one target while playing 29 offensive snaps. Meanwhile, Kenyan Drake had 10 carries and seven targets on 43 offensive snaps. In terms of floor, Drake is the better play, but DJ was completely left off the injury report in practice this week. I’m not sure if I buy it. The Cardinals could keep his workload down this week to give him the Week 12 bye to heal up for a stretch run. Hopefully Sunday news will help us out on our sit/starts, but I’m calling both Drake and DJ risky flex options this week. I do have more faith in Drake right now.

ARIAY11
ARIAY11

Christian Kirk set a new season-high in air yards last week now that the horizontal raid is being phased out for the vertical raid. Kirk has plenty of weekly upside in the fastest-paced offense as an emerging talent, but expectations should be realistic against San Francisco. Kirk has 2-8-0 on five targets when they played two weeks. Kirk is a WR2/3 this game but will be an upside WR2 from here on out. … Larry Fitzgerald has been under my “10 PPR Expected” threshold for four-straight weeks but was targeted eight times in last week’s shootout. Fitzgerald had 4-38-0 on four targets against the Niners last time, which puts him on the flex radar as a low-upside play. … Pharoh Cooper, KeeSean Johnson, and Andy Isabella are rotating in behind Kirk and Fitz. We should all be rooting for Isabella out of this group. He has caught 6-of-6 targets for 174 yards and one touchdown this season. His 29.0 yards per target is the most since at least 1992 (min. six targets lol). Isabella is certainly a player to watch with his snap counts ascending.

Bears (16.75, +6.5) @ LAR

Forecast: Mitch Trubisky QB2/3, David Montgomery (questionable) RB2/3, Tarik Cohen RB4, Allen Robinson WR3/4, Taylor Gabriel WR5

CHILAR
CHILAR

Mitch Trubisky lucked into three touchdowns thanks to good field position and other factors last week, and it was against one of the worst defenses in the Lions anyways. Trubisky is definitely not it, especially on the road against a solid Rams Defense. … David Montgomery suffered some type of ankle injury in practice this week, which lowers his floor for Week 11. When healthy, Montgomery is a 15-25 touch back as the centerpiece of the offense. His touches have been awful, however, only averaging 3.6 yards per carry and 5.5 yards per target because he’s big and slow. Being big and slow has kinda helped near the goal-line where he’s converted 5-of-11 inside-the-five carries into touchdowns. All things considered, Montgomery is a volume-based RB2/3 with some touchdown equity despite a 16.75-point team total.

CHIAY11
CHIAY11

Unfortunately, Allen Robinson will continue being a boom-or-bust WR3 with Trubisky. He’s still good enough and is still seeing enough volume to have bigger weeks, but the floor is low. This week could be a floor week with CB Jalen Ramsey lining up across A-Rob. … Taylor Gabriel set a new season-high in air yards last week and may keep a decent workload if Trubisky avoids Ramsey. The Rams other corners have been top-15 corners this season according to PFF, however, so Gabriel’s matchup is still very tough. I wouldn’t start Trubisky’s No. 2 receiver on the road against an above-average secondary with a 16.75-point team total.

Broncos (15, +10.5) @ MIN

Forecast: Brandon Allen QB3, Phillip Lindsay RB3, Royce Freeman RB3, Courtland Sutton WR3, Noah Fant TE2

DENMIN
DENMIN

The Broncos are projected to score 15 points. Brandon Allen is not a recommended QB2 streamer. I’m hoping we see rookie Drew Lock soon. … Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman continue to split the workload, which can be okay in good matchups, but that’s not what we get in Week 11. The Vikings are in the top 13th percentile against fantasy running backs as well as run defense DVOA. With the low team total and low touch volume, both Lindsay and Freeman are low-floor flex options.

DENAY11
DENAY11

Denver might be the narrowest pass-catching group in the NFL. It’s Courtland Sutton at receiver, and Noah Fant at tight end. That’s it. Sutton’s average depth of target is likely to be lower with Brandon Allen than Joe Flacco, making his ceiling lower than it was earlier in the season. Luckily the Vikings are in the bottom 16th percentile against fantasy receivers, so Sutton belongs in the WR3 range despite the laughable 15-point team total. … The bad has been bad (penalties, drops, and fumbles), but Noah Fant is showing his pass-catching upside in flashes. Fant is quietly on pace for the 25th-most receiving yards (533) among rookie tight ends in NFL history. He’s seeing 3-6 targets most weeks and could reach a slightly higher total down the stretch with Emmanuel long gone. As the No. 2 pass catcher on the team, Fant offers TE2 upside.