Week 12 CFB Player Props Primer

·6 min read

Draft Kings' opening lines moved so rapidly this afternoon that I had to wait until the dust settled and FanDuel posted some of their lines to release the article. I'm trying to avoid posting stale lines as much as possible.

Fortunately, FanDuel is releasing a large set of props on Saturday mornings, which I will have the ability to cover on the NBC Sports Edge Live Stream i'll be hosting at 11:30 AM tomorrow morning for the late breaking lines.

Here are the Friday and Saturday lines I like that are out right now:

Travell Harris O/U 4.5 Rushing Yards (FanDuel - Friday)

Not a lot of nuance to this play, as i’m employing a pretty straightforward approach to this prop. In 10 games this year, Harris has received exactly ONE carry that went for a negative three-yard loss. Accordingly, it’s a big stretch for the Wazzu wideout to see even one tote, and even then he has to make it five yards for the play to beat the 4.5 yard marker.

I don’t know if FanDuel has a mole up in Pullman, WA that has been spying on the WSU practice sessions, but it’s hard not to toss a unit on the UNDER 4.5 Rushing Yards prop that has hit a grand total of Zero times all season long.

Clayton Tune O/U 241.5 Passing Yards (Draft Kings Friday Night)

Tune has steadily gotten better as the season has progressed, with the Cougars riding a nine-game win streak into their big game against Memphis Friday night. Houston has scored 30 points or more in nine of those eight wins, with Tune saving his biggest passing performances for the competitive games. He tossed for 385 yards two weeks ago in a 54-42 win over USF, 412 yards in a 44-37 victory over SMU, 288 yards in a 40-22 win over Tulane and 257 in a 28-20 nod over Navy.

For their part, Memphis is allowing a 66% completion rate (112th) and a 43% passing success rate that ranks 81st nationally. The Tigers have allowed an average of 260 passing yards per game, 18 more on average than the current yardage mark, including 313 yards last week against the accuracy challenged Holton Ahlers and ECU. Houston’s offense is light years ahead of the Pirates, and Tune will have to throw since this is likely to be high scoring affair against a capable Memphis offense. I’m taking the OVER 241.5 Passing Yards on Tune as a result.

Beaux Collins, Clemson O/U 49.5 Receiving Yards (Draft Kings)

This prop opened at 38.5 yards and I inserted it into multiple parlays. However before I could get the article to print, it shot up to the 49.5 receiving yards mark, taking a bit of steam out of the play. Even so, Collins has the distinct advantage of Justyn Ross and Joseph Ngata missing this week’s game against Wake Forest’s pass defense that ranks 85th nationally in success rate and marginal explosiveness, while allowing 10.3 air yards per pass attempt (10th most) as teams challenged their secondary downfield with regularity.

Though Clemson’s passing game is downright infamous at this point, Collins got 47 snaps two games ago against Louisville and 58 reps against lowly UConn last week. While Clemson’s pass defense is for real, they are still going to be attacked vertically all game by Wake Forest, and had better be prepared to match the Demon Deacons firepower. Collins is clearly the best receiver that is still healthy on the roster, and his usage bears that out, with the freshman receiving at least nine targets in three of his last four games. This is as good a matchup for the OVER 49.5 Receiving Yards as Collins can ask for.

CJ Stroud, Ohio State O/U 311.5 Passing Yards (Draft Kings)

Ohio State is leading the nation in averaging 550 total yards per game, which is 17 more yards than the second best team, Pitt. A big part of that number is their current 354 passing yards per game average that currently ranks sixth in the nation and dwarfs last year’s 266 Passing YPG mark. The emergence of Jaxon Smith-Njigba alongside first-round caliber wideouts Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson has greatly helped CJ Stroud’s transition from Justin Fields’ backup to Heisman Trophy favorite.

Over the past six games Stroud has really come into his own throwing for more than 300-yards in five of them, with the lone sub-300 yard showing coming in a 54-7 blowout of Indiana where he put it in cruise control after halftime. He won’t have that luxury this week against Michigan State and will have to put forth a full four quarters to make sure the Spartans don’t attempt a second half comeback like they had against Michigan. The Spartans pass defense is brutal as well, allowing 329 passing yards per game a 44% success rate (94th) and ranks 82nd in passing marginal efficiency.

I think Stroud comfortably clears the OVER 311.5 mark on Draft Kings, with FanDuel setting the line at 319.5, so you’re getting some line value by going with DKs here.

Payton Thorne, Michigan State O/U 235.5 Passing Yards (FanDuel)

This line offers us gamblers a rare middle opportunity that I feel is too good to pass up. Draft Kings opened this line at 235.5 Passing Yards, but right before publishing bumped that mark up to 266.5. While I love the OVER play at 235.5, I think 266.5 is a much more realistic number and takes a lot of the excitement out of it.

However I also checked the line at FanDuel and their book still has the line at 235.5 at time of publishing, presenting a golden opportunity. With Thorne clearing 276 passing yards in four of their last six contests, I like him to pretty easily hit the OVER 235.5 in a game where MSU will likely be forced to keep pace with Ohio State’s offensive juggernaut.

The line discrepancy also presents an excellent hedge opportunity, where you could also toss a ½ unit on the UNDER 266.5 mark on Draft Kings in an attempt to hit a rather large 32 yard middle spread as well. It isn’t often you can take advantage of line discrepancies like this, so go bigger on the OVER 235.5 (FD), while also tossing a little cash on the Under 266.5 (DK) to try and hit the magic in-between number and maximize your profit in what amounts to a 32-yard free roll.

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