Lines came out EARLY this week on Draft Kings, but we were ready to jump on the action so you can get a jump on the sharks. Play these immediately.
Tahj Brooks, Texas Tech | O/U 61.5 Rushing Yards
Texas Tech is in a state of transition, with all positions being evaluated by interim HC Sonny Cumbie. Tahj Brooks is mired in a 3-Way time share with SaRodorick Thompson and Xavier White. In his past three games he has rushed for 23, 33 and 47 yards while receiving an average of 6 carries per game.
They are playing an Iowa State defense that ranks 16th against the rush in terms of team performance according to CFB Winning Edge’s advanced analytics. Crush the UNDER 61.5 Rush Yards.
Caleb Williams, Oklahoma | 227.5 Passing Yards
While Baylor’s pass defense has been pretty good, their rush defense is much better. HC Dave Aranda has employed a bend but don’t break philosophy, allowing 7.7 Yards Per Pass Attempt which ranks 81st in the country, and ranks 71st in suppressing explosive plays. Oklahoma’s pass offense has been rejuvenated since Caleb Williams took over, ranking as the 10th best pass offense in the country. FanDuel has his passing yards at 256.5, you’re getting a ton of line value at OVER 227.5...and OVER 1.5 Passing touchdowns as well.
Toa Taua, Nevada | 61.5 Rushing Yards
Nevada’s offense is built to do one thing - THROW. They’re rushing attack ranks 110th and Toa Taua splits time with Devonte Lee when it comes to rushing work, with his main competency being the ability to catch passes. San Diego State’s rush defense is amongst the very best in the nation and runs a slow-paced offense designed to grind their opposition down to the nub.
I cannot see Nevada choosing to attack SDSU up the middle considering the Aztecs ranks 15th in rushing success rate (36%), 8th in marginal efficiency and 25th in suppressing rushing explosiveness, while Nevada ranks 123rd in rushing success rate and 124th in stuff rate with one out of every four carries going for zero yards or less. I’m backing the UNDER 61.5 Rush Yards on Taua.
Timmy McClain, USF | O/U 205.5 Passing Yards
Cincinnati has been absolutely dominant in pass defense behind NFL caliber cornerback Sauce Gardner who is likely to go in the first 2 rounds of the draft this April. They’re ranking 9th in overall passing performance and allow just 5.3 yards per pass attempt. Their defensive line generates an astounding 39% pressure rate which ranks second in the country.
For his part McClain is coming off a 289 yard showing against Houston, but thats a smoke screen as he threw for just 71 yards against Temple, 148 yards against Tulsa 186 against BYU and 163 against Florida A&M. I cannot envision a world where McClain clears 206 passing yards against Cincinnati. Heavy UNDER here on McClain.
Max Johnson, LSU | O/U 261.5 Passing Yards
Soon to be departed HC Ed Orgeron has indicated that four-star freshman backup Garrett Nussmeier is going to get snaps and that he will “ride the hot hand” this week against Arkansas. That’s reason to be concerned if you’re Max Johnson, as Nussmeier looked very capable in his last appearance against Ole Miss where he completed 7-of-12 passes for 103 yards and a touchdown against Ole Miss on 10/23.
For his part, Johnson has been objectively mediocre lately, failing to clear the 160 yard barrier in all of his last three games against Alabama, Ole Miss and Florida. Anytime I hear about a QB split, I get excited, but especially when the line is set at a mark that he hasn’t hit since October 2nd while LSU has lost three of their last five games. Prize Picks has this line at 211.5 O/U, so you see which way the wind is blowing here. This UNDER is as good as it gets and is sure to drop.
Jordan Travis, Florida State | 118.5 O/U Passing Yards
Travis missed last week’s game due to an “illness” but returned to practice on Tuesday, so he’s good to go. McKenzie Milton underwhelmed again in a spot start so Travis will be unimpeded against Miami’s porous pass defense that allows 7.3 yards per attempt (60th), 2.5 points per drive (91st) and is ranked 85th in giving up explosive plays.
Travis has cleared the 118.5 pass yards mark in every single game he started this year, this is an easy OVER call and one likely to rise as the day progresses. Get it in immediately.
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